Blaine Neal

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:36 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	2	2	23	5	51.7	47	19	44	5	46%	.281	12	1.28	3.43	0	3.55	8.2	2.9	6.5	0.9	12.6	1.3	1.8
75^o	3	3	1	22	4	48.3	47	19	40	6	46%	.292	8	1.37	4.09	0	4.23	8.7	3.1	6.4	1.0	7.9	0.9	1.3
60^o	3	3	1	21	4	45.3	47	19	36	6	46%	.301	6	1.45	4.66	0	4.83	9.3	3.3	6.2	1.2	4.3	0.5	0.9
50^o	2	3	1	20	4	43.0	47	19	34	6	46%	.308	3	1.52	5.13	0	5.32	9.7	3.5	6.1	1.2	1.6	0.3	0.6
40^o	2	3	1	19	3	39.7	46	19	30	6	46%	.318	0	1.61	5.85	0	6.06	10.3	3.7	5.9	1.4	-1.9	-0.1	0.2
25^o	1	2	0	16	3	31.7	42	17	23	6	45%	.342	-9	1.86	7.67	0	7.92	11.9	4.2	5.5	1.8	-8.4	-0.7	-0.6
10^o	1	2	0	12	2	20.7	33	13	13	5	45%	.373	-23	2.23	10.57	0	10.88	14.3	5.1	4.9	2.3	-12.6	-1.0	-1.1
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	18	3	37.3	39	16	30	5	46%	.303	4	1.47	4.84	0	5.01	9.3	3.4	6.2	1.2	2.9	0.4	0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
9%	29%	49%	36%	1.12

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 31)	2	2	1	18	3	37.3	39	16	30	5	46%	.303	4	1.47	4.84	0	5.01	9.3	3.4	6.2	1.2	2.9	0.4	0.6
2010 (age 32)	3	3	2	25	4	50.0	53	19	42	7	46%	.307	6	1.43	4.62	0	4.79	9.4	3.0	6.5	1.2	3.1	0.6	0.6
2011 (age 33)	2	3	1	25	3	45.7	52	18	34	7	43%	.318	0	1.54	5.11	0	5.27	10.2	3.1	5.8	1.3	1.1	0.3	0.3
2012 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.270	.366	.450
vs RHB	.257	.333	.401
Split	+.013	+.032	+.049
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.6	$1,000,000	2.4	3.3
2010	0.6	$1,075,000	2.7	4.4
2011	0.3	$775,000	0.8	1.0
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	2.0	$1,925,000	6.9	10.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.23	5.32	7.92	5.01
2010	4.05	5.52	6.68	4.79
2011	4.80	5.70	7.03	5.27
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	36%	0%	9%
2010	58%	45%	15%
2011	69%	54%	2%
2012	78%	67%	2%
2013	80%	76%	1%
2014	87%	82%	3%
2015	87%	85%	6%

46

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Doug Brocail	1998	49		11	Ron Schueler	1979	32
2	Stan Williams	1967	46		12	Tyler Walker	2007	32
3	Charley Schanz	1950	45		13	John Montague	1978	32
4	Kyle Snyder	2008	43		14	Blas Minor	1997	32
5	Steve Crawford	1989	43		15	Eric Rasmussen	1983	31
6	Randy Veres	1997	40		16	Tim Worrell	1998	30
7	John Farrell	1993	40		17	Amaury Telemaco	2005	30
8	Roger Mason	1989	38		18	Terry Mathews	1995	29
9	John Boozer	1969	35		19	Bill Dawley	1989	29
10	Rich Monteleone	1994	34		20	Doug Henry	1995	28

Player Comments

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2005

A run-of-the-mill reliever with great velocity and lukewarm results, Neal will likely play out his career fighting for the last spot on pitching staffs, usually doing just enough to stay on the roster.

2003

Most minor league closers in the big leagues have the life expectancy of David Duke at a Black Panthers rally, but Neal pairs a reliable curve with the standard-issue 95-mph fastball to good effect wherever he pitches. His actual performance was better than his peripherals from last year suggest, so he�s a good bet to be a productive member of the Marlins bullpen in 2003.

2002

We've seen position player-to-pitcher, and we've occasionally seen pitcher-to-position player. Neal is vying to become the first pitcher-to-first-base-to-pitcher conversion. He's had a long road, with two position changes and elbow surgery, but he's now the Marlins' designated closer prospect. Nothing fancy, just a good fastball/slider combination. He should make the Opening Day bullpen.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	ALT	AA	2	0	2	29	0	40.2	34	10	46	2	54%	.286	5	1.09	2.01	0	4.50	10.2	2.8	6.2	0.9	4.6	0.0	0.8
2007	SYR	AAA	5	7	11	47	0	56.3	58	27	50	8	51%	.307	-23	1.51	4.16	6	6.88	10.4	4.7	5.4	2.0	-7.6	0.0	-0.2
2008	TOL	AAA	1	0	26	38	0	37.3	29	12	39	3	48%	.265	-4	1.10	1.21	5	3.96	7.7	3.2	6.2	1.0	6.6	0.0	1.9

Historical Stats