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Dioner Navarro
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 25
5' 9"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rays Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 9 Dioner Navarro 60 129 .248 14 3 14 1 .297 .363 0.0
1   2009 Total 60 129 .248 14 3 14 1 .297 .363 0.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 LVG AAA 43 3 2 0 0 2 3 7 1 0 -0.1 .175 .233 .225 -.621 .150 .209 .200 .129 -6.1 10-C 1 -0.2
2006 TBA MLB 216 23 7 0 4 20 20 33 1 1 -1.3 .244 .316 .342 -.197 .236 .316 .340 .233 -2.7 53-C 1 0.5
2006 LAN MLB 86 5 2 0 2 8 11 18 1 0 0.1 .280 .372 .387 -.054 .267 .360 .373 .264 2.8 22-C -5 0.0
2007 TBA MLB 434 46 19 2 9 44 33 67 3 1 -0.3 .227 .286 .356 -.218 .225 .288 .368 .231 -3.8 108-C -5 0.0
2008 VRO A+ 18 4 1 0 1 4 6 1 1 0 0.7 .400 .667 .800 .655 .333 .556 .667 .416 4.0 0.4
2008 TBA MLB 470 43 27 0 7 54 34 49 0 4 -8.0 .295 .349 .407 .024 .299 .355 .421 .267 18.4 112-C 16 4.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:45 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 410 50 23 1 10 48 42 54 2 1 -1.8 .283 .361 .433 .076 .287 .365 .455 .286 23.9 98-C 1 3.9
75o 390 42 20 1 8 44 36 52 2 1 -1.7 .270 .343 .406 -.001 .274 .347 .427 .271 15.7 93-C 1 3.1
60o 374 37 18 1 7 41 32 51 2 1 -1.6 .261 .329 .386 -.061 .265 .333 .406 .260 9.8 90-C 2 2.5
50o 364 34 17 1 7 40 30 50 2 1 -1.5 .255 .321 .375 -.096 .259 .325 .394 .253 6.6 87-C 2 2.2
40o 360 32 17 1 6 39 29 49 2 1 -1.5 .253 .317 .369 -.112 .256 .321 .388 .250 5.2 86-C 2 2.1
25o 339 27 15 1 5 35 24 47 2 1 -1.3 .241 .300 .345 -.185 .245 .303 .363 .234 -0.9 82-C 2 1.4
10o 302 19 11 1 4 29 18 43 1 1 -1.1 .223 .272 .307 -.301 .226 .275 .323 .208 -9.0 74-C 2 0.5
Weighted Mean 381 37 18 1 7 42 32 52 2 1 -1.5 .259 .326 .382 -.084 .263 .330 .402 .256 8.5 91-C 3 2.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

54%

19%

27%

0.90

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 25) 381 37 18 1 7 42 32 52 2 1 -1.5 .259 .326 .382 -.084 .263 .330 .402 .256 8.5 91-C 3 2.4
2010 (age 26) 343 33 18 1 7 39 29 45 2 1 -1.4 .268 .336 .395 -.014 .275 .345 .420 .265 10.9 83-C 3 2.4
2011 (age 27) 391 41 20 1 8 44 34 51 2 1 -1.4 .270 .337 .403 .000 .277 .346 .429 .267 12.7 93-C 1 2.6
2012 (age 28) 354 36 18 1 8 40 33 46 1 1 -1.2 .264 .336 .405 -.002 .271 .345 .431 .267 11.2 85-C 1 2.3
2013 (age 29) 345 33 17 1 7 39 30 48 2 1 -1.1 .261 .330 .391 -.036 .269 .339 .416 .260 8.5 83-C 0 1.9
2014 (age 30) 291 26 14 1 6 33 26 39 2 1 -0.9 .261 .329 .393 -.035 .268 .338 .418 .261 7.6 71-C 0 1.8
2015 (age 31) 313 28 14 1 7 36 27 43 1 1 -0.7 .261 .325 .394 -.040 .268 .334 .419 .259 5.8 76-C -1 1.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .264 .328 .409
vs RHP .257 .325 .367
Split +.006 +.003 +.043
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 8.6 3.0 2.4 $3,575,000 11.2 13.0
2010 10.7 3.0 2.4 $4,250,000 13.2 19.1
2011 13.2 1.0 2.6 $4,950,000 14.3 21.2
2012 11.9 1.0 2.3 $4,675,000 12.5 20.0
2013 9.2 0.0 1.9 $3,900,000 9.1 15.3
2014 8.1 0.0 1.8 $3,800,000 8.2 14.2
2015 8.0 -1.0 1.3 $3,025,000 5.7 10.4
Peak 13.5 $18,500,000 68.5 102.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .271 .253 .234 .256
2010 .281 .261 .231 .265
2011 .285 .259 .241 .267
2012 .285 .263 .240 .267
2013 .288 .254 .218 .260
2014 .281 .258 .226 .261
2015 .283 .252 .216 .259


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 27% 0% 25%
2010 33% 6% 39%
2011 31% 6% 41%
2012 38% 10% 42%
2013 37% 9% 37%
2014 53% 18% 39%
2015 62% 32% 33%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

48

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Buck Rodgers 1964 50 11 Fred Kendall 1974 33
2 Ramon Hernandez 2001 44 12 Michael Barrett 2002 32
3 Raul Casanova 1998 38 13 Mike Sweeney 1998 32
4 Ellie Rodriguez 1971 37 14 Jerry May 1969 31
5 Biff Pocoroba 1978 36 15 Ryan Doumit 2006 31
6 Yadier Molina 2007 36 16 Clay Dalrymple 1962 31
7 Butch Wynegar 1981 35 17 Ben Davis 2002 31
8 Damon Berryhill 1989 35 18 Dave Nilsson 1995 31
9 Joe Ginsberg 1952 33 19 Joe Azcue 1965 30
10 Charlie Moore 1978 33 20 Bruce Benedict 1981 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

During the first half of the 2007 season, Dioner hit more like Jamie Navarro, but the Rays stuck with him-not that they had much of a choice-and in the second half, he was one of the more productive catchers in the league, batting .285/.340/.475 after the break. He's a strange hitter in that he hits junk, using his excellent hand-eye coordination to turn on hanging curveballs or take hard sliders the other way, but his bat is a little slow, leaving him behind on good fastballs. It's hard to seem him putting up an 815 OPS over the course of a season, but it's easy to see him being productive enough to be in the middle of the pack among starting catchers.

2007

The Devil Rays acquired Navarro in a mid-season, four-player, C-grade challenge trade with the Dodgers that mercifully released Toby Halls`s grip on the catching position and banished Mark Hendrickson to the other side of the country. In Navarro, they picked up a player that still has some upside, though for the moment it all seems to be tied up in his plate discipline. His defense in Los Angeles was problematic, and his power simply hasn`t materialized. Still, he`s just 23, and even if that .265/.341/.402 PECOTA is his limit, that`s more than the Rays have ever gotten from their catchers in the club`s nine-year history. Navarro didn`t hit much after the trade, but he can be excused as, just days after he arrived in Tampa, his SUV--which also contained his wife and nine-year-old son, both of whom have survived serious illness in recent years--was rear-ended and flipped twice. Fortunately, Navarro and his family were unharmed.

2006

Acquired in the Shawn Green deal, Navarro`s performance in his first extended taste of big-league action was a rare positive in the Dodgers` otherwise dismal season. Not only did he hit for average, he took a big leap forward in the plate discipline department, almost reaching the golden ratio of one unintentional walk for every ten PAs. It`s important to remember that all of this happened in just 199 plate appearances after an altitude-inflated half-season in Las Vegas, and to note that despite an otherwise acceptable defensive performance, he struggled to control the running game (21.4 percent kill rate). But as 22-year-old catchers go, he`s a keeper, especially on a team that wasted over 400 PAs on Jason Phillips.

2005

Very young, he burned a year with a case of bigleagueitis. His reputation rests entirely on 110 games at A-ball and Double-A in 2003, and there is the possibility that he had a minor league catcher/Daffy Duck "I can only do this trick once" season. His offensive game is centered entirely around batting average, so until that comes up there's really no point in getting excited. Dealt to Arizona in the Randy Johnson deal, then flipped to the Dodgers, where he'll have a much clearer path to the majors.


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