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Dioner Navarro
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 24
5' 9"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rays Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Dioner Navarro 70 447 .242 43 8 47 3 .311 .366 2.9
1   2008 Total 70 447 .242 43 8 47 3 .311 .366 2.9

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LVG 3A 286 31 12 0 6 29 38 24 2 2 -1.2 .266 .366 .390 -.101 .255 .344 .352 .250 3.6 64-C 2 2.2
2005 LAN MJ 199 21 9 0 3 14 20 21 0 0 -2.0 .273 .354 .375 .012 .273 .357 .375 .260 7.6 49-C -1 1.8
2006 LVG 3A 43 3 2 0 0 2 3 7 1 0 -0.3 .175 .233 .225 -.541 .200 .256 .250 .179 -3.4 10-C 1 0.0
2006 TBA MJ 216 23 7 0 4 20 20 33 1 1 -0.9 .244 .316 .342 -.191 .246 .326 .351 .240 -2.6 53-C 1 1.2
2006 LAN MJ 86 5 2 0 2 8 11 18 1 0 -0.1 .280 .372 .387 .028 .267 .360 .360 .261 3.1 22-C -5 0.6
2007 TBA MJ 434 46 19 2 9 44 33 67 3 1 -0.5 .227 .286 .356 -.216 .234 .297 .384 .239 -4.0 108-C -3 2.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:36 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 389 52 23 1 11 48 43 51 4 2 -0.7 .288 .369 .460 .110 .292 .375 .483 .300 28.0 93-C 0 4.7
75o 365 39 18 1 8 41 35 50 4 1 -0.6 .258 .332 .398 -.055 .262 .337 .419 .268 11.3 88-C -1 3.1
60o 351 33 16 1 7 38 31 49 3 1 -0.6 .243 .312 .367 -.141 .246 .317 .385 .251 3.4 84-C -2 2.3
50o 347 31 15 1 7 37 29 49 3 1 -0.6 .238 .306 .358 -.165 .242 .311 .376 .246 1.3 84-C -2 2.1
40o 339 28 14 1 6 35 27 48 3 1 -0.5 .230 .294 .340 -.214 .233 .299 .357 .235 -2.8 82-C -2 1.7
25o 332 26 13 1 6 33 25 48 3 1 -0.5 .223 .285 .325 -.253 .226 .290 .342 .226 -6.0 80-C -3 1.3
10o 307 19 9 1 4 27 19 46 2 1 -0.4 .200 .254 .278 -.382 .202 .258 .293 .194 -15.3 75-C -4 0.3
Weighted Mean 394 39 18 1 8 42 34 55 4 1 -0.6 .242 .311 .366 -.143 .246 .316 .385 .249 2.6 94-C -2 2.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

54%

18%

23%

1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 394 39 18 1 8 42 34 55 4 1 -0.6 .242 .311 .366 -.143 .246 .316 .385 .249 2.6 94-C -2 2.9
2009 (age 25) 384 40 18 1 9 43 35 55 3 1 -0.6 .254 .327 .388 -.079 .262 .337 .415 .262 8.5 92-C -1 3.0
2010 (age 26) 373 40 18 1 8 43 36 51 3 1 -0.6 .261 .335 .397 -.048 .269 .346 .426 .268 11.2 89-C 0 3.2
2011 (age 27) 388 41 18 1 8 42 35 53 3 1 -0.6 .258 .329 .390 -.070 .266 .340 .418 .263 9.3 93-C -2 2.9
2012 (age 28) 358 37 17 1 8 39 34 49 3 1 -0.6 .254 .329 .392 -.070 .261 .340 .420 .263 8.1 86-C -4 2.4
2013 (age 29) 315 30 14 1 7 34 30 45 2 1 -0.5 .250 .324 .381 -.096 .258 .335 .408 .258 5.4 76-C -3 2.0
2014 (age 30) 248 21 11 1 6 28 23 34 2 1 -0.4 .253 .325 .386 -.087 .261 .335 .413 .260 5.0 61-C -3 1.7

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .249 .315 .394
vs RHP .240 .310 .351
Split +.009 +.005 +.043
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.7 2.1 2.9 $4,050,000 2.9 7.8
2009 1.2 1.8 3.0 $5,600,000 9.8 15.7
2010 1.4 1.8 3.2 $6,925,000 12.4 18.3
2011 1.2 1.7 2.9 $6,450,000 9.7 14.7
2012 1.1 1.4 2.4 $5,225,000 6.7 12.2
2013 0.8 1.2 2.0 $4,300,000 4.7 9.0
2014 0.7 1.0 1.7 $3,600,000 3.4 5.9
Peak 16.4 $24,975,000 46.7 77.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .268 .246 .226 .249
2009 .275 .254 .229 .262
2010 .291 .261 .237 .268
2011 .279 .258 .233 .263
2012 .271 .253 .232 .263
2013 .279 .249 .206 .258
2014 .278 .258 .229 .260


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 23% 0% 33%
2009 25% 6% 46%
2010 25% 7% 53%
2011 28% 9% 50%
2012 39% 11% 42%
2013 46% 19% 38%
2014 61% 24% 46%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

42

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Biff Pocoroba 1992 40 11 Ben Davis 2003 33
2 Butch Wynegar 1979 36 12 Jerry Grote 1971 33
3 Buck Rodgers 1981 36 13 Yadier Molina 1982 33
4 Mike Scioscia 1970 36 14 Bruce Benedict 1960 33
5 Ellie Rodriguez 1973 35 15 Mike Sweeney 2007 32
6 Dave Nilsson 1992 35 16 Dmitri Young 1975 32
7 Jack Shepard 1975 34 17 Marc Hill 1969 32
8 Brent Mayne 1975 34 18 Bill Freehan 2000 31
9 Jeff Torborg 1957 34 19 Kendry Morales 1979 30
10 Joe Garagiola 1998 33 20 Todd Hundley 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The Devil Rays acquired Navarro in a mid-season, four-player, C-grade challenge trade with the Dodgers that mercifully released Toby Halls`s grip on the catching position and banished Mark Hendrickson to the other side of the country. In Navarro, they picked up a player that still has some upside, though for the moment it all seems to be tied up in his plate discipline. His defense in Los Angeles was problematic, and his power simply hasn`t materialized. Still, he`s just 23, and even if that .265/.341/.402 PECOTA is his limit, that`s more than the Rays have ever gotten from their catchers in the club`s nine-year history. Navarro didn`t hit much after the trade, but he can be excused as, just days after he arrived in Tampa, his SUV--which also contained his wife and nine-year-old son, both of whom have survived serious illness in recent years--was rear-ended and flipped twice. Fortunately, Navarro and his family were unharmed.

2006

Acquired in the Shawn Green deal, Navarro`s performance in his first extended taste of big-league action was a rare positive in the Dodgers` otherwise dismal season. Not only did he hit for average, he took a big leap forward in the plate discipline department, almost reaching the golden ratio of one unintentional walk for every ten PAs. It`s important to remember that all of this happened in just 199 plate appearances after an altitude-inflated half-season in Las Vegas, and to note that despite an otherwise acceptable defensive performance, he struggled to control the running game (21.4 percent kill rate). But as 22-year-old catchers go, he`s a keeper, especially on a team that wasted over 400 PAs on Jason Phillips.

2005

Very young, he burned a year with a case of bigleagueitis. His reputation rests entirely on 110 games at A-ball and Double-A in 2003, and there is the possibility that he had a minor league catcher/Daffy Duck "I can only do this trick once" season. His offensive game is centered entirely around batting average, so until that comes up there's really no point in getting excited. Dealt to Arizona in the Randy Johnson deal, then flipped to the Dodgers, where he'll have a much clearer path to the majors.


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