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Mike Napoli
Anaheim Angels [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 27
6'
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Angels Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
DH 4 Mike Napoli 20 47 .274 24 9 23 2 .360 .516 11.0
C 8 Mike Napoli 50 111 .274 24 9 23 2 .360 .516 11.0
2   2009 Total 70 158 .274 24 9 23 2 .360 .516 11.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SLC AAA 90 12 6 0 3 10 8 29 1 1 -0.5 .244 .344 .436 -.195 .213 .300 .375 .234 -1.9 17-C 1 0.2
2006 ANA MLB 325 47 13 0 16 42 51 90 2 3 -0.8 .228 .360 .455 -.013 .216 .358 .436 .273 13.2 80-C 2 2.1
2007 ANA MLB 263 40 11 1 10 34 33 63 5 2 1.9 .247 .351 .443 -.012 .239 .347 .440 .274 12.0 68-C -3 1.3
2008 RCU A+ 17 3 3 0 1 4 2 2 0 0 0.2 .571 .588 1.000 .673 .400 .412 .733 .364 3.8 0.3
2008 ANA MLB 274 39 9 1 20 49 35 70 7 3 0.0 .273 .374 .586 .238 .267 .371 .587 .312 28.6 70-C -7 2.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:23 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 417 75 21 1 27 70 58 105 6 3 -0.1 .270 .381 .564 .261 .269 .383 .589 .322 42.3 99-C -4 5.3
75o 385 61 17 1 22 61 51 98 6 2 -0.1 .255 .362 .522 .163 .254 .365 .545 .306 30.3 92-C -4 4.2
60o 369 55 16 1 21 57 47 95 5 2 -0.1 .248 .354 .502 .116 .247 .356 .524 .298 25.0 88-C -3 3.7
50o 355 50 15 1 19 54 45 92 5 2 -0.1 .242 .346 .485 .076 .240 .349 .506 .291 20.7 85-C -3 3.3
40o 336 44 13 1 17 49 41 88 5 2 -0.1 .233 .336 .463 .023 .232 .338 .483 .282 15.5 81-C -3 2.8
25o 298 33 10 1 13 40 34 79 4 2 -0.1 .217 .316 .418 -.083 .216 .318 .436 .263 6.3 73-C -2 1.8
10o 263 25 8 1 10 33 28 71 3 1 0.0 .203 .299 .381 -.172 .202 .301 .397 .246 0.1 65-C -2 1.1
Weighted Mean 332 46 14 1 18 50 42 86 5 2 -0.1 .242 .346 .485 .067 .240 .348 .506 .290 20.1 80-C -2 3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

51%

29%

19%

0.92

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 27) 332 46 14 1 18 50 42 86 5 2 -0.1 .242 .346 .485 .067 .240 .348 .506 .290 20.1 80-C -2 3.1
2010 (age 28) 364 53 16 1 19 55 48 91 5 2 0.0 .243 .351 .487 .106 .245 .358 .515 .294 19.9 87-C -3 3.0
2011 (age 29) 367 53 15 1 19 55 47 91 5 1 0.0 .246 .352 .486 .108 .248 .359 .513 .294 18.3 88-C -2 2.8
2012 (age 30) 328 43 14 1 16 47 44 82 4 1 0.0 .234 .344 .461 .052 .236 .351 .487 .284 11.5 79-C -3 1.8
2013 (age 31) 286 36 13 0 14 42 36 70 4 1 0.1 .238 .341 .471 .064 .240 .349 .497 .286 10.7 70-C -6 1.5
2014 (age 32) 352 44 12 1 16 52 46 86 4 1 0.1 .222 .330 .423 -.032 .224 .337 .447 .269 5.9 85-C -6 1.2
2015 (age 33) 253 27 8 0 10 40 32 60 5 1 0.1 .226 .330 .408 -.047 .228 .337 .431 .268 3.8 62-C -5 0.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .258 .365 .508
vs RHP .236 .336 .465
Split +.021 +.030 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 20.5 -2.0 3.1 $5,525,000 18.9 30.1
2010 23.7 -3.0 3.0 $5,875,000 18.6 27.3
2011 24.0 -2.0 2.8 $5,850,000 17.5 27.2
2012 17.7 -3.0 1.8 $3,650,000 9.9 14.4
2013 16.1 -6.0 1.5 $3,050,000 7.4 11.5
2014 12.9 -6.0 1.2 $2,375,000 3.9 8.1
2015 9.0 -5.0 0.8 $1,750,000 2.1 4.6
Peak 13.3 $20,350,000 76.3 118.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .306 .291 .263 .290
2010 .315 .287 .259 .294
2011 .305 .288 .262 .294
2012 .300 .283 .238 .284
2013 .293 .282 .252 .286
2014 .299 .278 .241 .269
2015 .298 .276 .244 .268


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 19% 0% 19%
2010 30% 0% 24%
2011 33% 11% 20%
2012 40% 23% 11%
2013 54% 28% 11%
2014 53% 37% 11%
2015 70% 51% 8%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

32

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Cliff Johnson 1975 44 11 Bob Robertson 1974 25
2 Dave Ross 2004 39 12 Carlton Fisk 1975 24
3 Andre Thornton 1977 33 13 Jonny Gomes 2008 24
4 Frank Fernandez 1970 29 14 Todd Hundley 1997 24
5 Joe Ferguson 1974 28 15 Tom Haller 1965 23
6 Gary Alexander 1980 28 16 Jay Buhner 1992 22
7 Jim Pagliaroni 1965 26 17 Ed Bailey 1958 21
8 Hector Villanueva 1992 26 18 Don Pavletich 1966 20
9 Rick Wilkins 1995 26 19 Bobby Estalella 2002 20
10 Gene Tenace 1974 25 20 Duke Sims 1969 20

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Despite being just 26, Napoli is a fully-formed baseball player unlikely to develop much beyond what he already is. It's a nice package, a catcher with good secondary skills who throws out better than one of every four basestealers. Because of Napoli, Mathis's failure to develop doesn't sting quite as much.

2007

Stepping in for Mathis in May, Napoli proved both his defenders and critics correct. He surprised the league at first, hitting .286/.412/.579 between his May callup and the All-Star break, then pitchers caught up to him and held him to .164/.303/.320 in the second half, inducing a 4-for-54 homerless slump (with 13 walks) from mid-July to mid-August. Hence PECOTA`s strange spread of optimism and fear--players whose skills are entirely tied up in secondary offensive attributes such as power and patience can disappear almost as quickly as they arrive. As long as Napoli`s hidden from guys with overpowering heat, his all-or-nothing approach should serve against the nibblers as he works counts for a cookie. Whereas he was once seen as a relatively iffy defender, hard work has helped him improve against the running game; he threw out 31 percent of would-be thieves as an Angel last year. He`ll never be a star, but he contributes in all phases of the game.

2005

Prior to the season, Napoli was regarded as the fifth-best backstop in the Angels organization, maybe worse. Then he found some tremendous power, and with it came the added respect from pitchers that allows a player with a 60-walk eye to have an 88-walk season. Negatives include 166 strikeouts, which cast doubt on his ability to sustain his batting average at higher levels, doubly so after accounting for Cal League inflation. At 6'5" and 205 pounds., he'll likely shift to first base at some point, so his hitting needs to keep making big strides. Double-A will provide a good test.


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