Jose Morales

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:19 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	373	40	24	1	5	39	30	56	3	2	-1.0	.280	.342	.400	-.020	.282	.346	.422	.272	14.7	90-C 0	3.4
75^o	355	33	21	1	4	36	26	55	3	2	-0.9	.264	.321	.371	-.104	.265	.325	.392	.254	6.5	85-C 0	2.6
60^o	346	30	19	1	3	34	24	55	2	2	-0.9	.256	.311	.358	-.145	.258	.315	.377	.246	2.9	83-C -1	2.2
50^o	337	27	18	1	3	32	22	55	2	2	-0.8	.248	.301	.344	-.186	.250	.305	.363	.237	-0.5	81-C -1	1.8
40^o	330	25	17	1	3	31	21	54	2	2	-0.8	.243	.294	.335	-.214	.244	.298	.353	.231	-2.8	80-C -2	1.6
25^o	317	22	15	1	2	28	18	54	2	2	-0.7	.233	.281	.318	-.265	.235	.285	.335	.219	-6.7	77-C -2	1.1
10^o	295	17	13	1	2	25	15	52	2	2	-0.6	.218	.261	.290	-.346	.219	.264	.306	.198	-12.2	72-C -3	0.5
Weighted Mean	359	31	20	1	3	35	24	57	2	2	-0.8	.254	.308	.354	-.157	.255	.312	.373	.242	1.2	86-C 1	2.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
43%	68%	15%	22%	0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 25)	359	31	20	1	3	35	24	57	2	2	-0.8	.254	.308	.354	-.157	.255	.312	.373	.242	1.2	86-C 1	2.8
2009 (age 26)	326	28	19	1	4	33	22	52	2	1	-0.8	.258	.314	.366	-.129	.264	.323	.393	.249	3.8	79-C 2	2.4
2010 (age 27)	348	31	19	1	4	35	24	53	3	2	-0.7	.257	.314	.363	-.133	.263	.323	.390	.248	3.3	84-C -1	2.1
2011 (age 28)	348	34	21	1	5	38	26	53	2	2	-0.7	.272	.332	.391	-.055	.278	.341	.420	.263	7.7	84-C 1	2.4
2012 (age 29)	331	29	19	1	4	34	22	50	2	2	-0.7	.265	.318	.373	-.107	.270	.328	.400	.251	4.1	80-C -1	1.8
2013 (age 30)	353	32	20	1	4	36	25	55	3	2	-0.6	.256	.313	.366	-.130	.261	.323	.393	.248	2.6	85-C 0	1.6
2014 (age 31)	307	27	17	1	4	33	22	46	2	1	-0.5	.268	.324	.379	-.086	.274	.334	.407	.257	4.2	75-C -2	1.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.252	.299	.348
vs RHP	.254	.312	.357
Split	-.002	-.013	-.009
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.5	2.4	2.8	$3,950,000	2.6	5.9
2009	0.6	1.8	2.4	$4,100,000	6.4	9.9
2010	0.6	1.5	2.1	$3,325,000	3.7	8.5
2011	0.9	1.5	2.4	$5,225,000	9.3	14.1
2012	0.6	1.3	1.8	$3,550,000	4.3	7.5
2013	0.4	1.2	1.6	$3,175,000	3.3	5.8
2014	0.5	1.0	1.5	$3,125,000	3.3	7.0
Peak			13.2	$17,525,000	29.6	51.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.254	.237	.219	.242
2009	.259	.240	.218	.249
2010	.261	.242	.219	.248
2011	.278	.258	.230	.263
2012	.270	.244	.216	.251
2013	.270	.243	.204	.248
2014	.268	.245	.218	.257

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	22%	0%	43%
2009	34%	11%	47%
2010	45%	17%	53%
2011	51%	26%	49%
2012	48%	26%	44%
2013	59%	36%	42%
2014	65%	42%	40%

55

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Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Koyie Hill	1992	40		11	Joe Girardi	2003	33
2	Josh Bard	1979	36		12	Kirt Manwaring	1971	33
3	Raul Casanova	1981	36		13	Tom Nieto	1982	33
4	Jim Campanis	1970	36		14	Jerry Grote	1960	33
5	Buck Rodgers	1973	35		15	Jeff Torborg	2007	32
6	Cam Carreon	1992	35		16	Michael Barrett	1975	32
7	Brook Fordyce	1975	34		17	Ron Hodges	1969	32
8	Mike Fitzgerald	1975	34		18	Jeff Reed	2000	31
9	Mike Heath	1957	34		19	Gary Bennett	1979	30
10	Clay Dalrymple	1998	33		20	Mike Durant	2005	30

Player Comments

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2005

Before 2003, Morales was a second baseman with a great arm, but the Twins didn't see the speed for a turf infielder in him. So they moved him behind the plate full-time, starting in 2003, and they have to like what they've seen so far.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	NBR	2A	21	1	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	-0.1	.250	.286	.300	-.193	.200	.238	.300	.155	-1.9		0.0
2006	NBR	2A	282	23	14	1	3	26	19	56	2	1	-1.4	.211	.276	.311	-.183	.196	.254	.290	.193	-19.5	73-C -1	0.8
2006	ROC	3A	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2	.143	.143	.143	-.683	.143	.143	.143	.000	-1.5		0.0
2007	ROC	3A	411	42	25	1	2	37	30	44	1	4	-4.3	.311	.366	.399	.088	.282	.336	.377	.247	10.1	89-C 4	3.2
2007	MIN	MJ	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	1.000	1.000	1.333	3.852	.999	.999	.999	.999	2.9		0.0

Historical Stats