Luke Montz

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	POT	A+	519	59	27	3	16	76	51	91	3	3	-3.7	.229	.313	.410	-.337	.192	.256	.337	.206	-33.2	83-1B -2 27-C 0	-2.8
2007	POT	A+	253	43	15	1	7	39	45	54	3	2	-0.1	.269	.406	.458	-.199	.205	.315	.353	.238	-6.0	43-C -2 8-1B 0	0.1
2007	HAR	AA	158	22	5	1	5	19	8	50	0	0	-0.6	.233	.274	.384	-.340	.203	.241	.351	.200	-10.3	38-C -6	-1.0
2008	HAR	AA	254	30	14	0	14	53	31	46	0	1	-2.0	.282	.368	.536	-.003	.244	.323	.476	.269	8.7	48-C 0	1.4
2008	COH	AAA	181	18	8	1	2	18	13	37	1	1	0.2	.256	.309	.351	-.270	.232	.287	.327	.213	-8.1	42-C 1	0.0
2008	WAS	MLB	26	2	0	0	1	3	5	9	0	0	-0.1	.143	.308	.286	-.322	.143	.308	.286	.219	-0.9	6-C 0	0.0

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:20 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	478	55	25	2	16	56	51	109	2	1	-0.8	.241	.325	.420	-.043	.244	.327	.439	.263	12.5	113-C -4	2.9
75^o	458	47	23	1	14	51	47	108	2	1	-0.7	.227	.309	.390	-.122	.230	.311	.408	.248	3.5	109-C -4	2.0
60^o	437	40	20	1	12	46	43	106	2	1	-0.7	.213	.293	.362	-.197	.216	.296	.378	.233	-4.4	104-C -4	1.1
50^o	430	37	19	1	11	44	41	105	2	1	-0.7	.208	.288	.351	-.224	.211	.290	.367	.227	-7.0	102-C -4	0.8
40^o	422	35	18	1	10	43	40	104	1	1	-0.6	.203	.282	.341	-.250	.206	.285	.357	.222	-9.5	100-C -4	0.6
25^o	411	32	17	1	10	40	38	103	1	1	-0.6	.197	.275	.327	-.288	.199	.277	.342	.213	-12.8	98-C -4	0.2
10^o	371	23	13	1	7	32	32	97	1	1	-0.5	.175	.250	.282	-.406	.178	.252	.295	.184	-21.9	89-C -4	-0.9
Weighted Mean	433	38	19	1	11	46	42	105	2	1	-0.7	.209	.289	.354	-.228	.212	.292	.370	.228	-4.0	103-C -4	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
28%	46%	22%	12%	1.09

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	433	38	19	1	11	46	42	105	2	1	-0.7	.209	.289	.354	-.228	.212	.292	.370	.228	-4.0	103-C -4	1.0
2010 (age 26)	412	34	18	1	10	43	38	101	1	1	-0.5	.207	.285	.345	-.254	.207	.283	.356	.223	-6.4	98-C -5	0.6
2011 (age 27)	372	30	16	1	10	42	33	91	1	1	-0.3	.205	.279	.351	-.259	.205	.277	.362	.222	-5.0	89-C -4	0.5
2012 (age 28)	370	29	16	1	10	41	32	91	1	1	-0.2	.199	.274	.344	-.281	.199	.272	.354	.217	-5.3	89-C -4	0.3
2013 (age 29)	358	32	15	1	11	42	35	82	1	1	-0.2	.216	.298	.376	-.184	.216	.296	.388	.239	-0.4	86-C -4	0.5
2014 (age 30)	347	25	12	0	9	36	30	86	1	1	-0.1	.190	.264	.318	-.337	.190	.263	.328	.204	-4.9	84-C -1	0.1
2015 (age 31)	274	22	12	0	8	33	28	60	1	1	-0.1	.220	.304	.371	-.177	.220	.302	.382	.240	0.0	67-C -3	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.225	.309	.384
vs RHP	.205	.282	.338
Split	+.020	+.027	+.046
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-6.8	-4.0	1.0	$775,000	-5.7	1.4
2010	-8.5	-5.0	0.6	$400,000	-8.3	1.3
2011	-8.0	-4.0	0.5	$425,000	-5.7	1.0
2012	-9.8	-4.0	0.3	$400,000	-5.9	2.1
2013	-1.7	-4.0	0.5	$1,125,000	-0.7	2.1
2014	-13.4	-1.0	0.1	$400,000	-4.8	0.9
2015	-1.0	-3.0	0.3	$1,050,000	0.2	1.6
Peak			3.1	$2,525,000	0.0	8.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.248	.227	.213	.228
2010	.245	.224	.205	.223
2011	.247	.227	.203	.222
2012	.251	.226	.190	.217
2013	.263	.225	.190	.239
2014	.240	.205	.188	.204
2015	.298	.241	.197	.240

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	12%	0%	28%
2010	37%	14%	18%
2011	52%	34%	21%
2012	59%	44%	20%
2013	69%	56%	21%
2014	74%	62%	14%
2015	88%	74%	15%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

67

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Lloyd McClendon	1985	59		11	Joe Citari	1989	51
2	Ozzie Virgil	1982	57		12	Joe Dillon	2001	51
3	B.J. Waszgis	1996	57		13	Mike Wolff	1996	50
4	Grant Psomas	2008	57		14	Creighton Gubanich	1998	49
5	Kevin Cash	2003	56		15	David Ross	2003	49
6	Pat Casey	1985	55		16	Bobby Estalella	2000	49
7	Larry See	1986	54		17	Tim Spehr	1992	49
8	Jack Fimple	1985	52		18	Marty Castillo	1983	48
9	Earl Snyder	2002	52		19	Jeff Hearron	1987	48
10	Don McCormack	1981	51		20	Bill Bathe	1986	48

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