Gustavo Molina

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Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	BIR	AA	382	26	14	0	7	34	25	65	5	6	-5.0	.227	.286	.328	-.367	.206	.256	.308	.194	-28.0	89-C -2 9-1B 1	-1.3
2006	CHR	AAA	31	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	-0.9	.167	.194	.167	-.689	.167	.194	.167	.000	-5.3	9-C 4	0.1
2007	BOW	AA	80	5	4	0	0	6	3	10	0	0	-0.2	.364	.388	.416	-.224	.282	.300	.321	.214	-2.6	20-C -6	-0.7
2007	CHR	AAA	156	13	4	0	2	9	9	27	0	2	-1.6	.209	.265	.281	-.512	.182	.229	.245	.155	-16.9	28-C 0 14-3B 3	-0.7
2007	CHA	MLB	21	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0.0	.056	.100	.056	-.863	.111	.150	.111	.000	-4.4	6-C -1	-0.4
2008	NWO	AAA	250	22	7	0	7	27	16	56	0	0	-2.2	.206	.272	.329	-.468	.177	.232	.276	.169	-25.3	59-C 6	-0.7

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:20 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	301	22	13	0	6	29	19	66	0	0	-1.8	.228	.284	.347	-.226	.231	.286	.362	.223	-4.1	73-C 5	1.3
75^o	291	18	11	0	5	27	17	66	0	0	-1.6	.209	.264	.312	-.321	.212	.266	.326	.202	-10.4	71-C 4	0.6
60^o	284	16	10	0	5	25	17	66	0	0	-1.6	.198	.252	.292	-.377	.201	.254	.305	.188	-13.9	70-C 4	0.2
50^o	280	15	9	0	4	24	16	65	0	0	-1.5	.191	.245	.280	-.411	.194	.247	.293	.179	-15.9	69-C 4	0.0
40^o	273	13	8	0	4	23	15	65	0	0	-1.4	.181	.234	.261	-.463	.183	.236	.273	.164	-18.8	67-C 3	-0.4
25^o	261	10	7	0	3	21	14	64	0	0	-1.3	.166	.218	.234	-.536	.169	.220	.245	.140	-22.5	64-C 2	-0.9
10^o	219	7	5	0	2	13	11	59	0	0	-1.0	.152	.201	.207	-.611	.154	.203	.216	.053	-22.7	55-C 0	-1.7
Weighted Mean	277	13	9	0	4	24	16	66	0	0	-1.5	.184	.237	.266	-.451	.186	.239	.278	.168	-16.5	68-C 4	0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
44%	56%	35%	21%	1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 27)	277	13	9	0	4	24	16	66	0	0	-1.5	.184	.237	.266	-.451	.186	.239	.278	.168	-16.5	68-C 4	0.0
2010 (age 28)	243	11	8	0	4	21	13	57	0	0	-1.0	.179	.232	.267	-.471	.178	.231	.275	.166	-12.8	60-C 3	0.0
2011 (age 29)	223	10	7	0	3	19	13	51	0	0	-0.9	.187	.242	.275	-.438	.187	.241	.283	.176	-10.1	56-C 3	0.1
2012 (age 30)	224	10	6	0	4	20	12	51	0	0	-0.7	.180	.233	.271	-.465	.180	.231	.279	.167	-9.0	56-C 3	0.1
2013 (age 31)	218	9	7	0	3	20	13	50	0	0	-0.5	.178	.234	.263	-.473	.178	.232	.271	.166	-6.3	55-C 2	0.0
2014 (age 32)	190	7	6	0	2	16	11	41	0	0	-0.4	.182	.237	.256	-.475	.182	.236	.264	.164	-4.9	48-C 3	0.1
2015 (age 33)	215	10	6	0	4	20	13	45	0	0	-0.3	.190	.243	.280	-.427	.190	.242	.289	.179	-3.5	54-C 3	0.1

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.201	.258	.298
vs RHP	.180	.230	.255
Split	+.021	+.027	+.043
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-16.5	4.0	0.0	$400,000	-14.6	0.0
2010	-15.0	3.0	0.0	$400,000	-11.3	0.5
2011	-12.0	3.0	0.1	$400,000	-8.7	0.9
2012	-13.7	3.0	0.1	$400,000	-7.4	0.3
2013	-13.5	2.0	0.0	$400,000	-6.0	0.3
2014	-11.9	3.0	0.1	$400,000	-3.9	0.2
2015	-11.2	3.0	0.1	$475,000	-2.9	0.2
Peak			0.2	$200,000	0.0	2.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.202	.179	.140	.168
2010	.208	.176	.121	.166
2011	.203	.180	.139	.176
2012	.215	.184	.151	.167
2013	.216	.180	.140	.166
2014	.205	.178	.081	.164
2015	.205	.188	.158	.179

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	21%	0%	44%
2010	47%	23%	36%
2011	52%	27%	33%
2012	63%	42%	28%
2013	73%	53%	22%
2014	78%	61%	22%
2015	81%	71%	24%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

61

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Omir Santos	2008	65		11	Javier Cardona	2003	49
2	Bruce Bochy	1982	63		12	Guillermo Rodriguez	2005	48
3	Gabby Torres	2005	57		13	Fernando Lunar	2004	48
4	John Pachot	2002	54		14	Carlos Maldonado	2006	47
5	Yohanny Valera	2003	53		15	Orlando Mercado	1989	47
6	Mike Knapp	1992	53		16	Sandy Martinez	2000	46
7	Adan Amezcua	2001	52		17	Yamid Haad	2005	46
8	Bobby Ramos	1983	50		18	Dane Sardinha	2006	45
9	Raul Chavez	2000	50		19	Jose Molina	2002	45
10	Armando Camacaro	2006	49		20	Robert Machado	2000	45

Player Comments

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2008

Gus Molina could be an acceptable catcher (barely) if he never had to face right-handed pitchers, but that's an awfully narrow niche, and narrow niches are always vulnerable to extinction.