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Chad Moeller
Baltimore Orioles [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 34
6' 3"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Orioles Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Chad Moeller 25 55 .187 4 0 4 0 .232 .267 -2.8
1   2009 Total 25 55 .187 4 0 4 0 .232 .267 -2.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NAS AAA 154 10 6 0 2 18 15 28 0 2 -2.1 .220 .307 .311 -.461 .176 .253 .250 .177 -14.7 37-C 2 -0.4
2006 MIL MLB 104 9 3 0 2 5 4 26 0 0 0.5 .184 .231 .276 -.482 .184 .231 .265 .161 -8.5 26-C -1 -0.7
2007 LOU AAA 52 5 5 0 3 10 4 12 0 0 -0.1 .250 .308 .542 -.194 .204 .250 .449 .232 -1.1 11-C -1 0.0
2007 LVG AAA 47 3 1 0 1 6 9 8 0 0 -0.2 .324 .468 .432 -.069 .237 .383 .342 .267 0.6 11-C -1 0.1
2007 CIN MLB 49 6 1 0 1 2 0 17 0 0 -0.4 .167 .167 .250 -.633 .167 .167 .250 .105 -5.1 10-C -1 -0.7
2008 SWB AAA 89 6 4 0 1 7 5 22 0 0 -0.4 .235 .270 .321 -.469 .195 .233 .268 .174 -8.7 23-C 0 -0.4
2008 NYA MLB 103 13 6 0 1 9 7 18 0 0 -1.5 .231 .311 .330 -.236 .231 .311 .319 .226 -1.2 25-C 1 0.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:49 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 200 25 10 0 7 22 16 44 0 0 -1.2 .261 .329 .435 -.024 .259 .330 .441 .268 6.8 51-C -1 1.3
75o 192 21 9 0 6 20 14 43 0 0 -1.1 .245 .311 .401 -.113 .243 .312 .407 .251 2.6 49-C -1 0.9
60o 179 16 8 0 4 18 12 41 0 0 -1.0 .225 .287 .358 -.227 .223 .288 .363 .228 -2.3 46-C -1 0.4
50o 173 14 7 0 4 17 11 40 0 0 -0.9 .216 .277 .339 -.276 .215 .277 .344 .217 -4.2 45-C -1 0.2
40o 167 12 7 0 3 16 10 39 0 0 -0.9 .207 .265 .318 -.330 .205 .266 .323 .204 -6.2 43-C -1 0.0
25o 151 9 6 0 2 13 8 37 0 0 -0.7 .187 .241 .276 -.441 .186 .242 .280 .175 -9.5 40-C -1 -0.4
10o 98 2 3 0 0 6 4 26 0 0 -0.4 .146 .188 .186 -.679 .144 .188 .188 .075 -11.5 28-C -1 -0.8
Weighted Mean 152 12 6 0 3 16 10 35 0 0 -0.9 .218 .278 .341 -.247 .216 .279 .346 .218 -3.1 40-C 0 0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

60%

65%

23%

57%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 34) 152 12 6 0 3 16 10 35 0 0 -0.9 .218 .278 .341 -.247 .216 .279 .346 .218 -3.1 40-C 0 0.3
2010 (age 35) 134 9 6 0 3 14 8 32 0 0 -0.5 .213 .267 .330 -.295 .214 .271 .338 .209 -3.1 36-C -1 0.0
2011 (age 36) 111 6 5 0 2 10 7 27 0 0 -0.3 .202 .255 .297 -.366 .203 .259 .305 .191 -2.9 31-C -1 0.0
2012 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .231 .294 .364
vs RHP .214 .272 .330
Split +.017 +.022 +.033
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -2.7 0.0 0.3 $450,000 -3.5 0.6
2010 -3.5 -1.0 0.0 $400,000 -4.0 0.7
2011 -4.6 -1.0 0.0 $400,000 -3.3 0.0
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.1 $275,000 0.0 1.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .251 .217 .175 .218
2010 .230 .198 .122 .209
2011 .225 .204 .088 .191
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 57% 0% 60%
2010 75% 28% 47%
2011 88% 50% 43%
2012 96% 74% 37%
2013 96% 83% 35%
2014 99% 89% 28%
2015 99% 94% 21%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

43

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Mike Difelice 2003 63 11 Steve Yeager 1983 40
2 Mickey Grasso 1954 50 12 Tim Laker 2004 40
3 Phil Roof 1975 47 13 Ron Karkovice 1997 39
4 Del Rice 1957 46 14 Ron Tingley 1993 38
5 Jeff Newman 1983 44 15 Ray Murray 1952 37
6 Larry Haney 1977 43 16 Joe Oliver 1999 36
7 Marc Hill 1986 43 17 Jason LaRue 2008 35
8 Danny Ardoin 2008 42 18 Kelly Stinnett 2004 35
9 Cal Neeman 1963 41 19 Scott Servais 2001 34
10 Larry Cox 1982 41 20 Randy Hundley 1976 34

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Chad Moeller posted a park-inflated age-27 season line of .286/.385/.467 with Arizona in 2002; it`s been all downhill from there. He signed a one-year deal with the Reds to be their third catcher.

2006

Speaking of nothing, the nicest thing you can say about Moeller is that he`s a touch of Teutonic flavor in the most fair-haired, ruddy-cheeked, blue-eyed audience in Major League Baseball. That, and he can tell his friends he was one of the six guys sent to the Brewers in the Sexson trade, if very probably the least valuable.

2005

Moeller was statistically the worst regular catcher in the National League in 2004, with an ugly –10.7 VORP. He hit significantly better as a backup in Arizona, but was overexposed as an everyday player. The signing of Damian Miller to a three year contract insures that the Brewers won't be challenging him with 349 at-bats again anytime soon.

2003

Backup catcher with a bat. Moeller hasn’t really ever had a chance to play full-time, and he may just bust out and put up some solid offensive numbers. He isn’t heralded for his defense, but he doesn’t have a reputation of a Scott Hatteberg or Mike Piazza, so what harm can it do? Considering this organization once rewarded Jorge Fabregas with a bigger contract than he asked for, this has to be seen as a quantum leap forward.

2002

If Barajas is wrong for this team, then Moeller shouldn’t even be on its 40-man roster. Pitchers like throwing to him, and he’s a decent plate-blocker. On the other hand, he doesn’t hit at all and doesn’t do much against the running game. If things break right for him, he’ll be the new Joe Girardi, trying to make a team that already has a turbocharged Girardi in Damian Miller.

2001

Chad Moeller did what he had to do by impressing Tom Kelly quickly. Kelly said he liked the way Moeller called a game, though his Catcher ERA wasn’t any better than the other catchers'. You can tell Moeller knows how slender his opportunity is, because after tearing up his knee in August, he rushed back rather than get lost in the shuffle behind Matt LeCroy and A.J. Pierzynski. Moeller’s future depends on things going badly for everybody else while he keeps up the apple-on-teacher’s-desk routine.

1999

Moeller continued to develop, but at the end of the year, it was LeCroy who got a week in Salt Lake City. His time is now, because LeCroy is a much better hitter, and has a bit of an organizational halo. If he doesn't establish himself in 1999, he's just marking time


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