<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Brian McCann
Atlanta Braves [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 25
6' 3"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Braves Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 4 Brian McCann 80 198 .294 24 8 33 1 .368 .508 13.2
1   2009 Total 80 198 .294 24 8 33 1 .368 .508 13.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 ATL MLB 492 61 34 0 24 93 41 54 2 0 -4.4 .333 .388 .572 .308 .332 .388 .568 .319 56.2 114-C -1 5.6
2007 ATL MLB 552 51 38 0 18 92 35 74 0 1 -4.1 .270 .320 .452 -.005 .268 .320 .463 .266 24.4 127-C -1 2.9
2008 ATL MLB 573 68 42 1 23 87 57 64 5 0 -2.3 .301 .373 .523 .235 .307 .380 .543 .311 51.0 129-C -5 5.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:44 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 617 102 42 1 30 117 68 67 5 1 -3.3 .326 .405 .573 .354 .326 .403 .592 .329 76.1 144-C 1 8.9
75o 589 90 38 1 27 107 62 65 4 1 -3.0 .315 .391 .549 .290 .315 .390 .566 .319 63.8 138-C 0 7.7
60o 562 79 35 1 24 98 56 63 4 1 -2.8 .305 .379 .526 .228 .305 .377 .542 .308 52.9 132-C 0 6.7
50o 544 72 33 1 22 92 53 61 4 1 -2.7 .299 .371 .511 .190 .299 .369 .527 .302 46.4 128-C -1 6.0
40o 521 65 31 1 20 85 49 59 4 1 -2.5 .291 .361 .493 .141 .291 .359 .508 .293 38.4 123-C -1 5.2
25o 480 52 27 1 17 73 41 56 4 1 -2.3 .277 .343 .460 .054 .277 .341 .475 .278 25.7 114-C -2 3.9
10o 436 41 23 0 14 61 34 51 3 1 -2.0 .263 .323 .427 -.036 .263 .322 .440 .261 14.2 103-C -2 2.6
Weighted Mean 564 77 35 1 23 96 55 64 4 1 -2.7 .300 .372 .513 .187 .300 .370 .529 .300 49.4 132-C 0 6.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

52%

24%

7%

0.97

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 25) 564 77 35 1 23 96 55 64 4 1 -2.7 .300 .372 .513 .187 .300 .370 .529 .300 49.4 132-C 0 6.0
2010 (age 26) 566 78 34 1 24 96 56 64 4 1 -2.5 .302 .375 .517 .184 .298 .368 .526 .303 45.8 133-C 0 6.1
2011 (age 27) 553 73 33 1 22 91 56 62 4 1 -2.3 .295 .370 .503 .151 .291 .363 .512 .298 40.7 130-C -3 5.3
2012 (age 28) 518 68 30 1 22 87 55 58 4 1 -2.1 .294 .372 .508 .161 .289 .365 .518 .300 38.7 122-C -3 4.9
2013 (age 29) 537 71 33 1 23 91 55 61 4 1 -2.0 .295 .371 .512 .165 .291 .364 .521 .300 39.3 126-C -4 5.0
2014 (age 30) 530 70 30 1 22 90 55 57 4 1 -1.7 .301 .376 .512 .177 .296 .368 .521 .302 35.9 125-C -5 4.4
2015 (age 31) 500 64 30 0 21 87 55 55 4 1 -1.5 .297 .376 .510 .172 .293 .369 .519 .302 32.3 118-C -5 3.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .277 .347 .478
vs RHP .310 .387 .557
Split -.033 -.040 -.079
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 40.8 0.0 6.0 $14,450,000 43.4 67.7
2010 42.9 0.0 6.1 $14,825,000 40.9 62.9
2011 38.6 -3.0 5.3 $12,800,000 33.5 50.2
2012 37.4 -3.0 4.9 $12,525,000 31.0 47.3
2013 39.1 -4.0 5.0 $14,200,000 32.4 50.0
2014 39.8 -5.0 4.4 $13,150,000 28.7 43.3
2015 37.1 -5.0 3.9 $12,125,000 25.1 38.9
Peak 31.7 $66,075,000 209.9 321.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .319 .302 .278 .300
2010 .321 .304 .287 .303
2011 .313 .298 .283 .298
2012 .320 .299 .280 .300
2013 .318 .299 .278 .300
2014 .320 .303 .285 .302
2015 .322 .297 .271 .302


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 7% 0% 19%
2010 7% 1% 21%
2011 12% 2% 16%
2012 17% 2% 23%
2013 16% 3% 20%
2014 29% 13% 22%
2015 36% 15% 20%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

37

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Matt Nokes 1989 38 11 Earl Williams 1973 26
2 Joe Torre 1965 36 12 Joe Pepitone 1966 24
3 Gary Carter 1979 36 13 Ray Fosse 1972 23
4 Ted Simmons 1974 33 14 Lance Parrish 1981 23
5 Ed Herrmann 1972 31 15 Kent Hrbek 1985 23
6 Jim Spencer 1972 29 16 Wally Joyner 1987 22
7 Richie Hebner 1973 29 17 Greg Walker 1985 20
8 Jason Thompson 1979 29 18 Alvin Davis 1986 20
9 Bill Freehan 1967 28 19 Milt May 1975 20
10 John Olerud 1993 27 20 Chris Chambliss 1974 20

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

You could say he took a step backwards last year, but it would be more accurate to say that McCann's 2006 season was the one out of line, and that his 2007 was a better fit with his career progression. Forget '06 and look at him as a 23-year-old, left-handed-hitting catcher that provides league-average offense and defense, but needs to get back to being a bit more selective at the plate. He's still a star in the making.

2007

Most of 2005`s `Baby Braves` entered their terrible twos in 2006, but McCann was the gifted child, already annotating his leatherbound copy of Hop on Pop. He finished second to Joe Mauer in VORP among major league catchers; the two of them will vie for the top of the charts as long as they each remain behind the plate. McCann added some lift to his swing in 2006, pulling on more pitches and raising his line drive and fly ball rates to the level of other star major league hitters. Given his offensive profile, his .338 BABIP is not a fluke. As long as the power spike holds, he may become the Braves` most valuable property.

2006

When injuries claimed both Estrada and Perez, McCann got called up and never looked back. He homered in his second game, and made such an impression on starter John Smoltz that he soon became his personal catcher. By August he was carrying the bulk of the catching load and drawing high marks for handling a staff in flux all season and holding his own with the stick. Though he didn`t flash a lot of it at the major-league level, he`s got plenty of power, as anybody who tuned into the Division Series--when he homered twice--could tell you. The surprise was his plate discipline; between Mississippi and Atlanta, he drew an unintentional walk for every 9.9 at-bats, compared to once every 15.4 coming into the year. The Braves liked what they saw and dealt Estrada, so the job is McCann`s to lose.

2005

McCann mans a key position and boasts a light-tower stroke. Normally, we'd be higher on a guy who slugs nearly .500 in Myrtle Beach at age 20, but there's cause for dampened enthusiasm. First, it's highly doubtful he'll stick at catcher; Jarrod Saltalamacchia is ahead of him on the depth charts, and the Braves privately don't care for McCann's defense. Second, his swing is long, his bat is a bit on the slow side, and he has sub-optimal plate discipline. In other words, it'll be surprising if those power numbers hold up at the higher levels.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.