|
2008 Sometimes, players peak at a young age. We notice it when a rookie has his career year, earns an award or two, and never quite reaches that level again. It happens in the minor leagues, too. Mathis appears to have peaked at age 20, in the California League. Despite playing in good hitters' parks since, Mathis hasn't hit .300 or slugged .500 in four seasons, and his underlying indicators have fallen off the charts since 2005. Bobby Wilson is the same age as Mathis and has outplayed him for two years straight, so Mathis's ability to hold on to even the backup role is in doubt. PECOTA's top comp is weirdly optimistic. 2007 The Angels expected Mathis to be their catcher by now, and gave him every opportunity last April to make the job his own. It`s hard to see why they wouldn`t rather have him in, say, Seattle. Although he`s a smooth receiver, he`s not a great arm behind the plate, and his track record as a hitter is just so much Salt Lake froth. Although young, he`s just not going to develop into anything more than a nice reserve. 2006 You might think that Mathis followed up a disastrous 2004 with a solid 2005, but his offensive numbers were inflated by one of the PCL`s most hitter-friendly ballparks. Still, he recovered some of his power stroke, and some think he has reestablished himself as one of the best catching prospects in the game. This says as much about the organization`s lack of alternatives as it does about his upside. His defensive reputation remains strong, though not so much for throwing out runners as for athleticism and mobility behind the plate. 2005 That loud noise you heard was Jeff Mathis' super-prospect status imploding. Mathis got off to a hot start, then crashed hard. There was no injury. His bat simply disappeared without paying its bar tab or leaving a forwarding address. The cause is less important now than the future: Does the still-youthful Mathis re-establish himself or does he stagnate? He was extremely young for Double-A, and there's a tendency to exaggerate the effect of the most recent season on any player's record, so you can count on some rebound. He'll get plenty of time to prove himself; it's way too early to write Mathis off.
|