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Victor Martinez
Cleveland Indians [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 30
6' 2"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 3 Victor Martinez 30 75 .295 23 6 29 0 .373 .458 9.6
C 8 Victor Martinez 50 111 .295 23 6 29 0 .373 .458 9.6
2   2009 Total 80 186 .295 23 6 29 0 .373 .458 9.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 CLE MLB 652 82 37 0 16 93 71 78 0 0 -5.5 .316 .391 .465 .121 .302 .385 .454 .293 46.7 126-C -12 19-1B -1 3.7
2007 CLE MLB 645 78 40 0 25 114 62 76 0 0 -1.7 .301 .374 .505 .142 .288 .366 .503 .296 49.0 116-C 3 25-1B -2 5.5
2008 BUF AAA 25 2 2 0 0 2 4 4 0 0 -0.1 .300 .400 .400 -.148 .238 .346 .333 .254 -0.2 0.0
2008 CLE MLB 294 30 17 0 2 35 24 32 0 0 -0.8 .278 .337 .365 -.092 .277 .340 .367 .252 4.9 50-C 4 9-1B 0 1.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:42 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 460 60 26 1 14 60 45 57 0 0 -2.2 .302 .374 .471 .147 .300 .372 .491 .297 32.3 109-C -5 4.3
75o 439 52 24 1 12 55 42 55 0 0 -2.1 .290 .361 .446 .080 .289 .359 .464 .286 24.1 104-C -5 3.5
60o 418 45 22 0 10 50 39 53 0 0 -1.9 .279 .349 .421 .017 .277 .347 .439 .274 16.7 100-C -5 2.8
50o 407 41 21 0 9 48 37 52 0 0 -1.9 .273 .342 .408 -.017 .271 .341 .426 .268 13.2 97-C -5 2.4
40o 393 37 20 0 8 45 35 50 0 0 -1.8 .265 .334 .393 -.058 .264 .333 .409 .261 8.9 94-C -5 2.0
25o 374 32 18 0 7 41 32 48 0 0 -1.7 .256 .324 .372 -.112 .254 .322 .387 .250 3.8 90-C -5 1.5
10o 324 21 14 0 4 31 26 43 0 0 -1.4 .232 .298 .322 -.242 .231 .296 .335 .223 -6.5 78-C -5 0.3
Weighted Mean 433 45 22 0 10 51 39 55 0 0 -1.8 .272 .342 .408 -.015 .271 .340 .425 .266 12.3 103-C -5 2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

5%

31%

33%

15%

0.78

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 30) 433 45 22 0 10 51 39 55 0 0 -1.8 .272 .342 .408 -.015 .271 .340 .425 .266 12.3 103-C -5 2.3
2010 (age 31) 397 39 20 0 9 46 37 51 0 0 -1.5 .269 .340 .403 -.013 .271 .343 .425 .264 10.2 95-C -4 2.1
2011 (age 32) 331 29 15 0 7 37 31 44 0 0 -1.2 .262 .335 .390 -.046 .265 .338 .411 .258 6.2 80-C -5 1.4
2012 (age 33) 353 33 17 0 8 42 32 47 0 0 -1.1 .272 .341 .400 -.014 .275 .344 .422 .264 7.7 85-C -6 1.4
2013 (age 34) 352 32 17 0 7 41 32 46 0 0 -0.9 .265 .336 .392 -.040 .267 .339 .413 .259 5.0 85-C -5 1.1
2014 (age 35) 369 34 16 0 7 42 35 49 0 0 -0.7 .266 .340 .387 -.038 .268 .343 .408 .261 4.3 89-C -6 0.9
2015 (age 36) 284 23 13 0 6 29 28 38 0 0 -0.5 .260 .336 .383 -.055 .262 .339 .404 .258 2.4 69-C -6 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .270 .341 .395
vs RHP .273 .342 .417
Split -.003 -.002 -.021
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 10.9 -5.0 2.3 $3,500,000 11.1 12.1
2010 9.1 -4.0 2.1 $3,425,000 10.4 13.0
2011 5.5 -5.0 1.4 $2,200,000 5.0 8.0
2012 8.0 -6.0 1.4 $2,525,000 6.1 9.1
2013 6.2 -5.0 1.1 $2,125,000 4.3 5.1
2014 7.0 -6.0 0.9 $1,950,000 3.4 5.0
2015 4.4 -6.0 0.5 $1,350,000 1.3 2.0
Peak 9.1 $11,050,000 40.3 52.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .286 .268 .250 .266
2010 .282 .255 .237 .264
2011 .272 .252 .224 .258
2012 .282 .259 .236 .264
2013 .279 .257 .233 .259
2014 .286 .248 .227 .261
2015 .278 .254 .230 .258


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 15% 0% 5%
2010 25% 7% 6%
2011 37% 11% 9%
2012 45% 21% 7%
2013 55% 31% 3%
2014 62% 42% 8%
2015 74% 57% 4%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

55

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Earl Battey 1965 52 11 Josh Bard 2008 41
2 Michael Barrett 2007 51 12 Hal Smith 1961 41
3 Alan Ashby 1982 50 13 Johnny Estrada 2007 41
4 David Segui 1997 46 14 Duane Josephson 1972 40
5 Jim Sundberg 1981 44 15 Milt May 1981 40
6 Sherm Lollar 1955 43 16 Darrin Fletcher 1997 39
7 Jason Varitek 2002 42 17 Del Crandall 1960 38
8 Bob Boone 1978 42 18 Tony Pena 1987 37
9 Eddie Taubensee 1999 41 19 Ron Hassey 1983 37
10 Joe Azcue 1970 41 20 Smoky Burgess 1957 36

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Everyone knows Martinez is a great hitter, but few talk about the transformation he's undergone defensively. It wasn't so long ago that it was just assumed that Martinez would eventually move to first base because of his deficiencies behind the plate. Now, while he's still not Johnny Bench back there, he's not bad, either. Martinez blocks balls well, has soft hands, and threw out 32 percent of opposing basestealers last year, which was the fourth-best rate in the American League (behind only Joe Mauer, Kenji Johjima, and Gerald Laird). At $17 million for the next three years, Martinez is an absolute bargain.

2007

Martinez`s been a reliable offensive asset in his three years as a regular, yet people somehow aren`t as excited about him as they once were. His interesting trends are an on-base percentage that continues to rise thanks to a slowly increasing walk rate and a slugging percentage that continues to fall due to a slowly dropping home run rate. They`ve basically balanced each other out, giving Martinez roughly equal offensive value over those three years. His defense, on the other hand, is continuing to regress. Baserunners stole on Martinez at will in 2006, racking up a major-league-leading 100 steals against him despite his second half improvement. There have been calls to move him to first base, but his bat wouldn`t be nearly the asset it is now if he is relocated from one of the weakest offensive position in the game to one of the strongest.

2005

If anyone is likely to sidestep the pitfalls of young catcherdom, it's Martinez. In his first year as a full-timer behind the plate in Cleveland, Martinez put his broad base of offensive skills on display, his 2004 looking like something out of the career of Yogi Berra—whose exceptional bat control he mirrors. Also like Yogi, Martinez's bat is a better tool than his glove. The high Collapse number above is a nod to the rough road traveled by young catchers and the frequent regression that occurs when a player has a huge year in his first full big league season. We're going to tell PECOTA to grab a Fresca and chill out on this one.

2003

That no one saw this coming contributed to Einar’s four-year deal with a club option for 2005. Then Martinez won the Eastern League batting title and MVP after winning the Carolina League MVP the year before. Scouts say his defense makes him an incomplete package, but he has good receiving skills; the perceived deficiency is all in his arm strength. In his brief cup of coffee this year, Martinez didn’t do anything to quell that concern, allowing 11 stolen bases and throwing out only 2 in his nearly 70 innings of work. The problem is whether there’s much to do for him; there’s a limit to how fast you can get rid of the ball after you’ve mastered your footwork, and if you can’t get it screaming to second, the speedsters are going to be able to steal on him consistently.

Beyond that minor concern, check out that hitting line, which is why Martinez is as good a catching prospect as they come. He’s not quite ready to take over the major league job, but he’ll be ready before long.

2002

The Carolina League MVP and organizational player of the year is a converted shortstop with an outsized defensive reputation. Martinez impressed the Indians with his handling of Kinston's pitching staff, which included some of the system's best prospects. He was 22 in the Carolina League, so a dose of skepticism is healthy. Like Josh Bard, he's going to make The Show; the only question is whether he'll be a decent starter or a career backup. How often does a team have two switch-hitting catcher prospects?


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