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Russell Martin
Los Angeles Dodgers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 25
5' 10"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Dodgers Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 2 Russell Martin 80 597 .285 88 15 71 15 .371 .440 35.0
1   2008 Total 80 597 .285 88 15 71 15 .371 .440 35.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 JAX 2A 505 83 17 1 9 61 78 69 15 7 0.0 .311 .430 .423 .248 .270 .377 .378 .272 21.3 112-C 1 5.1
2006 LVG 3A 91 14 9 0 0 9 13 11 0 2 1.4 .297 .389 .419 .056 .263 .352 .355 .252 1.7 22-C 4 0.9
2006 LAN MJ 468 65 26 4 10 65 45 57 10 5 1.2 .282 .355 .436 .062 .280 .355 .435 .274 18.5 113-C 6 6.1
2007 LAN MJ 620 87 32 3 19 87 67 89 21 9 -1.0 .293 .374 .469 .155 .296 .380 .486 .294 46.1 140-C 9 8.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:39 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 566 102 31 2 17 76 72 80 17 5 0.7 .310 .403 .490 .203 .308 .400 .495 .307 50.3 133-C 4 7.8
75o 530 86 28 2 15 67 63 76 15 4 0.6 .297 .387 .465 .131 .295 .384 .470 .295 38.2 125-C 4 6.8
60o 499 74 25 2 13 61 57 72 14 4 0.5 .287 .373 .444 .073 .285 .370 .449 .284 29.2 118-C 5 6.0
50o 488 70 24 2 13 58 54 71 13 4 0.5 .283 .368 .437 .052 .281 .365 .441 .280 26.2 115-C 5 5.7
40o 462 61 22 2 11 53 49 68 12 3 0.5 .275 .357 .420 .004 .273 .354 .425 .271 19.6 109-C 6 5.0
25o 433 52 20 1 10 47 43 64 10 3 0.4 .266 .344 .402 -.049 .264 .342 .406 .261 13.0 103-C 6 4.4
10o 374 38 16 1 7 37 33 56 8 2 0.4 .248 .320 .367 -.151 .246 .317 .370 .240 2.3 90-C 7 3.2
Weighted Mean 514 77 26 2 13 62 58 74 14 4 0.5 .285 .371 .440 .062 .283 .368 .445 .281 30.3 121-C 6 5.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

14%

44%

18%

17%

0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 25) 514 77 26 2 13 62 58 74 14 4 0.5 .285 .371 .440 .062 .283 .368 .445 .281 30.3 121-C 6 5.8
2009 (age 26) 542 88 28 2 15 65 62 76 15 5 0.5 .295 .383 .461 .118 .289 .374 .457 .290 31.6 127-C 6 5.8
2010 (age 27) 537 83 27 2 15 64 60 73 14 5 0.4 .288 .373 .449 .080 .281 .364 .445 .283 27.7 126-C 4 5.4
2011 (age 28) 496 75 27 2 13 63 57 65 13 4 0.4 .292 .379 .455 .101 .285 .370 .452 .287 27.2 117-C 3 5.0
2012 (age 29) 458 68 22 1 13 60 56 63 10 4 0.3 .291 .384 .458 .112 .284 .375 .454 .290 26.5 109-C 3 4.9
2013 (age 30) 511 79 25 2 15 66 60 68 12 4 0.3 .296 .381 .463 .117 .289 .372 .459 .290 27.1 120-C 2 4.8
2014 (age 31) 524 78 26 2 15 65 58 72 12 4 0.2 .290 .369 .452 .078 .283 .360 .448 .282 20.5 123-C 2 4.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .300 .392 .465
vs RHP .279 .359 .422
Split +.021 +.033 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.5 3.3 5.8 $14,675,000 34.5 44.2
2009 2.9 3.0 5.8 $16,125,000 35.6 53.7
2010 2.6 2.8 5.4 $15,150,000 29.8 43.7
2011 2.5 2.6 5.0 $15,325,000 29.2 44.2
2012 2.5 2.4 4.9 $15,700,000 28.0 42.6
2013 2.5 2.3 4.8 $16,800,000 28.1 41.5
2014 1.9 2.3 4.2 $14,550,000 21.6 32.4
Peak 31.7 $75,750,000 185.1 269.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .295 .280 .261 .281
2009 .313 .290 .268 .290
2010 .309 .282 .269 .283
2011 .304 .289 .264 .287
2012 .311 .284 .258 .290
2013 .311 .292 .273 .290
2014 .303 .281 .254 .282


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 17% 0% 14%
2009 22% 2% 29%
2010 27% 2% 26%
2011 35% 6% 17%
2012 35% 9% 24%
2013 39% 16% 23%
2014 46% 25% 16%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

44

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Thurman Munson 1992 40 11 Rich Rollins 2003 33
2 Craig Biggio 1979 36 12 Butch Wynegar 1971 33
3 Ray Fosse 1981 36 13 Jason Kendall 1982 33
4 Todd Zeile 1970 36 14 Sal Bando 1960 33
5 Mike Stanley 1973 35 15 Charlie Moore 2007 32
6 Joe Foy 1992 35 16 Steve Boros 1975 32
7 Ben Petrick 1975 34 17 Ron Swoboda 1969 32
8 Bill Freehan 1975 34 18 Ramon Hernandez 2000 31
9 Mike Macfarlane 1957 34 19 Glenn Borgmann 1979 30
10 Jerry May 1998 33 20 Brian Downing 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

Martin drew an Honorable Mention on our Top-50 Prospects list last year after an excellent season in Jacksonville, but with just three years of catching under his belt and young Dioner Navarro in place, he appeared ticketed for Triple-A in 2006. When a bone bruise felled Navarro in early May, Martin got the call, and the result marked the turning point of the team`s season. The Dodgers won 16 of Martin`s first 18 starts; Navarro was Wally Pipped out of a job and dealt to Tampa Bay. By season`s end, the Dodgers were 71-43 in games Martin started. There is little not to like about Martin`s game; he showed durability, solid on-base skills, developing power, above-average speed for a backstop, adept handling of pitchers, and excellent defense. He threw out 31 percent of attempted thieves and averaged 0.27 non-stealing assists per game; the team`s other backstops cut down just 13 percent and averaged 0.14 assists per game. The Dodgers have themselves a long-term asset at a key position--but what an ill-starred lot of comparables PECOTA came up with, undone by a plane crash, Parkinson`s, and Pete Rose. Martin might want to take out an insurance policy or three.

2006

A year older than Navarro but at least a year behind him developmentally, Martin is nonetheless the backstop with more upside. He had a strong season at Jacksonville, showing outstanding plate discipline, reasonable power, and even some speed while cementing his place as one of the Dodgers` best prospects. Converted from third base prior to 2003, he made good strides behind the plate under the tutelage of Jacksonville coach Steve Yeager. He drew praise for a strong arm, improved receiving skills, and his handling of pitchers. He`ll likely spend the season in Vegas, but the Dodgers can look forward to a young, productive tandem behind the plate.

2005

A power/patience catcher who held his own at Vero Beach. So far during his career, he's walked more than he's struck out, a rare, attractive feat. He's had a surprisingly low average for a guy who's struck out so rarely, and he's actually shown some speed on the field, which makes you wonder how long he'll have either (a) the speed, or (b) any time actually catching, rather than moving to another position. Defensively, the jury's out, but he's done well enough to keep getting penciled in there, and he's young enough to learn the craft.


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