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Russell Martin
Los Angeles Dodgers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 26
5' 10"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Dodgers Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 6 Russell Martin 80 187 .270 25 3 19 5 .369 .371 6.7
1   2009 Total 80 187 .270 25 3 19 5 .369 .371 6.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 LVG AAA 91 14 9 0 0 9 13 11 0 2 0.4 .297 .389 .419 -.184 .237 .330 .329 .240 -1.6 22-C 3 0.6
2006 LAN MLB 468 65 26 4 10 65 45 57 10 5 0.2 .282 .355 .436 .015 .278 .353 .430 .272 17.5 113-C 5 3.4
2007 LAN MLB 620 87 32 3 19 87 67 89 21 9 -1.6 .293 .374 .469 .161 .299 .383 .489 .296 45.2 140-C 7 6.3
2008 LAN MLB 650 87 25 0 13 69 90 83 18 6 0.1 .280 .385 .396 .076 .289 .394 .416 .288 37.5 139-C 3 8-3B 1 5.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:40 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 606 107 34 2 17 74 78 76 17 7 0.3 .319 .412 .489 .267 .324 .416 .512 .318 62.4 142-C 6 8.4
75o 580 94 31 2 15 69 73 74 16 6 0.3 .309 .400 .468 .209 .314 .404 .490 .308 51.9 136-C 5 7.4
60o 546 80 28 2 12 63 66 71 14 6 0.3 .296 .386 .440 .136 .301 .389 .461 .296 39.5 128-C 4 6.1
50o 528 73 27 2 11 60 62 69 13 6 0.3 .289 .378 .427 .099 .294 .382 .447 .289 33.6 124-C 4 5.5
40o 519 70 26 2 10 59 60 68 12 5 0.3 .286 .374 .419 .079 .291 .377 .439 .286 30.6 122-C 4 5.2
25o 479 57 22 1 8 52 53 64 11 5 0.2 .271 .357 .389 -.002 .276 .361 .408 .271 19.1 113-C 3 3.9
10o 423 41 18 1 5 44 44 58 8 4 0.2 .252 .335 .349 -.111 .257 .338 .366 .250 6.0 101-C 2 2.4
Weighted Mean 579 86 29 2 12 66 69 75 14 6 0.3 .292 .382 .433 .091 .297 .385 .454 .291 38.8 136-C 5 5.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

26%

57%

13%

11%

0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 26) 579 86 29 2 12 66 69 75 14 6 0.3 .292 .382 .433 .091 .297 .385 .454 .291 38.8 136-C 5 5.6
2010 (age 27) 583 83 27 2 12 63 70 73 13 5 0.3 .283 .373 .414 .049 .284 .371 .428 .284 27.9 137-C 3 4.7
2011 (age 28) 506 69 26 2 11 61 60 62 12 3 0.4 .291 .380 .430 .088 .292 .378 .445 .291 31.1 119-C 2 4.9
2012 (age 29) 516 71 26 1 12 63 60 65 12 3 0.5 .292 .378 .436 .092 .292 .376 .450 .291 29.7 122-C 0 4.4
2013 (age 30) 562 81 28 1 12 69 70 70 12 4 0.5 .288 .382 .427 .084 .288 .380 .441 .290 27.4 132-C 3 4.4
2014 (age 31) 529 73 26 1 12 62 62 64 13 3 0.5 .290 .373 .428 .073 .291 .371 .442 .288 23.6 125-C 3 3.9
2015 (age 32) 500 66 25 1 10 58 58 61 12 3 0.5 .289 .374 .424 .067 .290 .372 .438 .288 20.4 118-C 0 3.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .307 .401 .458
vs RHP .287 .370 .415
Split +.020 +.031 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 34.3 5.0 5.6 $13,425,000 41.0 57.9
2010 29.8 3.0 4.7 $9,825,000 28.3 41.7
2011 30.2 2.0 4.9 $11,700,000 31.4 47.3
2012 30.8 0.0 4.4 $11,200,000 28.5 43.2
2013 32.9 3.0 4.4 $12,075,000 28.4 41.8
2014 30.0 3.0 3.9 $11,075,000 24.9 38.7
2015 27.8 0.0 3.2 $9,400,000 20.1 30.2
Peak 27.9 $55,450,000 182.5 270.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .308 .289 .271 .291
2010 .305 .283 .265 .284
2011 .306 .286 .262 .291
2012 .309 .290 .261 .291
2013 .310 .290 .266 .290
2014 .307 .277 .257 .288
2015 .302 .287 .262 .288


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 11% 0% 26%
2010 19% 4% 19%
2011 25% 1% 22%
2012 31% 7% 26%
2013 36% 15% 23%
2014 39% 21% 20%
2015 47% 25% 13%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

36

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Thurman Munson 1973 45 11 Terry Steinbach 1988 21
2 Craig Biggio 1992 34 12 Sal Bando 1970 21
3 Red Wilson 1955 32 13 Ray Fosse 1973 20
4 Smoky Burgess 1953 31 14 Ron Belliard 2001 19
5 Bruce Edwards 1949 27 15 John Stearns 1978 19
6 Brian Downing 1977 27 16 Jason Kendall 2000 19
7 Joe Foy 1969 26 17 Earl Battey 1961 19
8 Kevin Seitzer 1988 25 18 Bernie Williams 1995 17
9 Todd Zeile 1992 23 19 Gary Matthews 1976 16
10 Bernard Gilkey 1993 22 20 Johnny Romano 1961 16

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Martin took another great leap forward last year, improving his power, plate discipline, and defense on the way to leading NL catchers in VORP, WARP, and caught-stealing percentage and winning a Gold Glove. He was almost too good, as his 1,254 innings behind the plate-a single-season total surpassed only by Jason Kendall in the past decade-likely led to a .259/.330/.395 September slump. Durable as Martin may be, former catcher Grady Little should have eased off the throttle. Joe Torre's shown a decent ability to modulate Jorge Posada's usage to avoid late-season burnout; expect him to take a stronger hand here, and for Martin to spend the next few years battling Brian McCann for the title of the league's best catcher. PECOTA likes McCann more based on his body type, power, and ability to hit for average, but Martin's speed, defense, and durability ain't hay, and he's out-WARPed his Atlanta rival by two wins over the past two years.

2007

Martin drew an Honorable Mention on our Top-50 Prospects list last year after an excellent season in Jacksonville, but with just three years of catching under his belt and young Dioner Navarro in place, he appeared ticketed for Triple-A in 2006. When a bone bruise felled Navarro in early May, Martin got the call, and the result marked the turning point of the team`s season. The Dodgers won 16 of Martin`s first 18 starts; Navarro was Wally Pipped out of a job and dealt to Tampa Bay. By season`s end, the Dodgers were 71-43 in games Martin started. There is little not to like about Martin`s game; he showed durability, solid on-base skills, developing power, above-average speed for a backstop, adept handling of pitchers, and excellent defense. He threw out 31 percent of attempted thieves and averaged 0.27 non-stealing assists per game; the team`s other backstops cut down just 13 percent and averaged 0.14 assists per game. The Dodgers have themselves a long-term asset at a key position--but what an ill-starred lot of comparables PECOTA came up with, undone by a plane crash, Parkinson`s, and Pete Rose. Martin might want to take out an insurance policy or three.

2006

A year older than Navarro but at least a year behind him developmentally, Martin is nonetheless the backstop with more upside. He had a strong season at Jacksonville, showing outstanding plate discipline, reasonable power, and even some speed while cementing his place as one of the Dodgers` best prospects. Converted from third base prior to 2003, he made good strides behind the plate under the tutelage of Jacksonville coach Steve Yeager. He drew praise for a strong arm, improved receiving skills, and his handling of pitchers. He`ll likely spend the season in Vegas, but the Dodgers can look forward to a young, productive tandem behind the plate.

2005

A power/patience catcher who held his own at Vero Beach. So far during his career, he's walked more than he's struck out, a rare, attractive feat. He's had a surprisingly low average for a guy who's struck out so rarely, and he's actually shown some speed on the field, which makes you wonder how long he'll have either (a) the speed, or (b) any time actually catching, rather than moving to another position. Defensively, the jury's out, but he's done well enough to keep getting penciled in there, and he's young enough to learn the craft.


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