Ryan Madson

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Setup Ryan Madson 18 0 3.55 1.18 16 6 1 17 1 1 2 3.6

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:33 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	5	2	5	67	0	78.0	68	25	65	6	49%	.276	13	1.19	2.54	0	2.63	7.8	2.5	6.4	0.7	27.1	2.3	3.5
75^o	4	3	4	62	0	72.7	67	24	59	6	49%	.286	11	1.25	3.04	0	3.17	8.2	2.6	6.3	0.8	20.8	1.7	2.8
60^o	4	3	3	58	0	68.0	66	23	55	7	49%	.294	9	1.31	3.51	0	3.66	8.7	2.7	6.2	0.8	15.5	1.3	2.2
50^o	4	3	3	54	0	64.0	65	23	51	7	48%	.301	7	1.36	3.89	0	4.06	9.0	2.8	6.2	0.9	11.7	1.0	1.7
40^o	3	3	2	50	0	60.0	63	22	47	7	48%	.309	6	1.42	4.32	0	4.51	9.4	2.9	6.1	1.0	7.8	0.6	1.3
25^o	3	3	2	46	0	54.7	61	21	42	7	48%	.318	3	1.49	4.87	0	5.10	9.9	3.0	6.0	1.1	3.4	0.3	0.8
10^o	1	2	0	30	0	36.0	48	16	26	6	47%	.351	-5	1.76	7.02	0	7.34	11.9	3.4	5.6	1.4	-7.1	-0.6	-0.4
Weighted Mean	3	2	3	50	0	59.7	59	21	48	6	48%	.298	8	1.33	3.70	0	3.87	8.8	2.7	6.2	0.9	12.5	1.0	1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
31%	52%	22%	17%	0.97

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 28)	3	2	3	50	0	59.7	59	21	48	6	48%	.298	8	1.33	3.70	0	3.87	8.8	2.7	6.2	0.9	12.5	1.0	1.7
2010 (age 29)	3	2	2	47	0	56.7	58	20	45	6	48%	.304	6	1.37	3.85	0	4.01	9.1	2.8	6.2	0.9	9.8	0.9	1.4
2011 (age 30)	3	2	2	44	0	52.0	56	18	39	6	47%	.308	4	1.41	4.01	0	4.16	9.5	2.7	5.8	1.0	7.4	0.7	1.1
2012 (age 31)	3	2	2	44	0	52.7	54	17	40	6	48%	.301	5	1.34	3.92	0	4.10	9.2	2.5	5.9	0.9	6.4	0.8	0.9
2013 (age 32)	3	2	2	37	0	45.3	46	16	35	5	48%	.296	4	1.37	4.01	0	4.19	9.1	2.8	6.0	1.0	5.3	0.6	0.8
2014 (age 33)	2	2	2	36	0	43.7	44	14	32	4	47%	.296	5	1.32	3.77	0	3.93	9.0	2.5	5.7	0.9	5.3	0.7	0.7
2015 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.248	.345	.401
vs RHB	.245	.312	.360
Split	+.003	+.033	+.041
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	1.7	$3,125,000	12.0	8.9
2010	1.4	$2,625,000	9.3	6.4
2011	1.1	$2,150,000	7.0	5.2
2012	0.9	$2,025,000	6.0	4.0
2013	0.8	$1,850,000	5.0	3.5
2014	0.7	$2,000,000	5.1	3.6
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	6.5	$9,350,000	39.2	31.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	3.17	4.06	5.10	3.87
2010	3.37	3.97	5.32	4.01
2011	3.23	4.35	5.67	4.16
2012	3.39	4.15	5.81	4.10
2013	3.52	4.93	5.34	4.19
2014	3.57	4.39	5.25	3.93
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	17%	0%	31%
2010	30%	16%	22%
2011	43%	25%	24%
2012	51%	32%	14%
2013	56%	40%	11%
2014	69%	55%	10%
2015	72%	69%	15%

62

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	LaTroy Hawkins	2001	65		11	Randy Moffitt	1977	50
2	Travis Harper	2005	64		12	Cecil Upshaw	1971	48
3	Ken Forsch	1975	63		13	Rick Bauer	2005	48
4	Dick Tidrow	1976	58		14	Les Lancaster	1991	47
5	Jose Silva	2002	57		15	Elias Sosa	1979	47
6	Jeff Robinson	1989	56		16	Lindy McDaniel	1964	45
7	Braden Looper	2003	52		17	Jose Mesa	1995	45
8	Albie Lopez	2000	51		18	Jason Isringhausen	2001	45
9	Rich Bordi	1988	51		19	Antonio Alfonseca	2001	44
10	Chris Reitsma	2006	51		20	Steve Crawford	1987	44

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

One of the stranger stats of the year: lefty batters hit .170/.308/.284 off of Madson, in large part due to a unreal .206 BABIP. That helped him to something of a rebound year after his much-lobbied-for transfer to the starting rotation in 2006 was a miserable failure. It was all fun and games until Madson got hurt, landing on the DL in July with a shoulder strain and never coming back. The good luck against lefties won't hold up, even if Madson's arm does, but he should continue to be a serviceable, changeup-oriented middle reliever.

2007

Working as a reliever, Madson`s 2006 stats were pretty similar to his 2004 numbers; it was the time he spent starting that made his season look like a train wreck. Starting was what he wanted to do, and he won a rotation spot out of spring, lost it when Hamels came off the DL in May, and then regained it when Hamels went back on in June. Madson had ongoing problems with his curve last year, leaving him with just two pitches--an okay fastball and killer change. Only a few pitchers can go through a lineup more than once on only two pitches. Madson`s not one of them.

2006

Slated to be the No. 1 setup pitcher in 2006, Madson has also been considered for the rotation, and probably will be again if things go awry. The difference between his somewhat lucky 2004 and his slightly disappointing 2005 was that left-handed hitters figured out the tall righty, but he should be able to recover if he returns to throwing his fastball inside to lefties to set up his plus change outside. He also features an average curve with a slurvy break.

2005

Madson's season was not quite as good as it looks on the surface�note the difference between his ERA and his PERA. Nevertheless, the guy can pitch, facing hitters with one nasty change-up after another, and it was surprising that he made just one start for the Phillies given their injury problems. He'll likely get that chance in the future as he bulks up and refines his breaking pitch, though one wonders whether his success in the bullpen will doom him to it.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Setup	Ryan Madson	18	0	3.55	1.18	16	6	1	17	1	1	2	3.6

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	PHI	MLB	11	9	2	50	17	134.3	176	50	99	20	45%	.364	28	1.68	5.70	-16	4.37	11.2	3.0	6.0	1.1	-1.3	1.3	4.1
2007	REA	AA	0	0	0	2	0	3.0	3	0	4	0	43%	.429	59	1.00	0.00	-1	0.00	15.4	0.0	11.6	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.1
2007	PHI	MLB	2	2	1	38	0	56.0	48	23	43	5	49%	.269	0	1.27	3.05	5	3.63	7.1	3.2	6.3	0.8	17.6	1.6	1.6
2008	PHI	MLB	4	2	1	76	0	82.7	79	23	67	6	53%	.307	9	1.23	3.05	2	3.24	8.7	2.1	6.6	0.7	23.0	2.0	2.7

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats