Donny Lucy

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	WNS	A+	381	48	17	1	7	32	33	67	12	3	1.9	.262	.341	.383	-.401	.195	.254	.289	.190	-32.9	93-C -2	-1.4
2006	BIR	AA	69	2	1	0	0	3	4	15	1	0	-0.1	.283	.358	.300	-.273	.254	.319	.270	.217	-3.0	12-C -3	-0.4
2007	BIR	AA	326	42	17	0	6	27	30	59	13	1	1.4	.269	.343	.390	-.249	.232	.292	.336	.225	-12.4	82-C -7	-0.5
2007	CHR	AAA	78	5	3	0	0	3	3	25	0	0	0.4	.200	.231	.240	-.556	.187	.218	.227	.130	-9.9	19-C 0	-0.6
2007	CHA	MLB	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0.0	.200	.200	.200	-.623	.200	.200	.200	.077	-1.7		-0.2
2008	CHR	AAA	46	6	2	0	2	6	2	12	1	0	-0.9	.279	.326	.465	-.070	.256	.304	.442	.258	0.7	12-C 1	0.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:11 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	315	36	15	1	8	27	24	79	7	1	-0.2	.236	.305	.376	-.157	.237	.306	.384	.245	1.5	76-C -1	1.5
75^o	291	27	12	1	6	24	20	78	6	1	-0.2	.212	.275	.332	-.286	.212	.276	.339	.217	-7.4	71-C -1	0.5
60^o	271	21	10	1	5	21	17	76	5	1	-0.1	.193	.252	.300	-.383	.194	.252	.306	.194	-13.0	67-C -1	-0.2
50^o	263	19	10	1	5	19	16	75	4	1	-0.1	.186	.243	.288	-.418	.187	.244	.294	.185	-14.8	65-C -2	-0.5
40^o	251	17	9	1	4	18	14	74	4	1	-0.1	.177	.231	.271	-.468	.177	.232	.276	.171	-17.1	62-C -2	-0.8
25^o	234	14	7	1	3	16	12	72	3	1	-0.1	.166	.216	.251	-.528	.166	.217	.256	.152	-19.2	58-C -2	-1.1
10^o	189	8	5	0	2	10	8	64	2	1	-0.1	.144	.187	.212	-.645	.144	.187	.217	.099	-20.7	48-C -2	-1.5
Weighted Mean	263	20	10	1	5	20	16	75	5	1	-0.1	.189	.247	.293	-.380	.190	.248	.299	.189	-13.3	65-C -1	-0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
25%	33%	57%	31%	1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 26)	263	20	10	1	5	20	16	75	5	1	-0.1	.189	.247	.293	-.380	.190	.248	.299	.189	-13.3	65-C -1	-0.3
2010 (age 27)	261	20	9	0	6	22	15	73	4	1	-0.1	.189	.245	.301	-.384	.192	.249	.311	.190	-10.1	64-C -1	-0.2
2011 (age 28)	200	13	7	0	3	15	12	53	3	1	0.0	.185	.245	.283	-.410	.188	.249	.292	.184	-7.6	51-C 0	0.0
2012 (age 29)	218	17	7	0	5	18	14	60	3	1	0.0	.200	.261	.310	-.335	.203	.265	.320	.202	-3.5	55-C 0	0.0
2013 (age 30)	182	12	6	0	3	14	11	48	3	1	0.0	.197	.255	.296	-.367	.200	.259	.306	.194	-3.1	46-C 2	0.0
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.206	.264	.320
vs RHP	.186	.242	.282
Split	+.020	+.022	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-11.4	-1.0	-0.3	$400,000	-13.5	0.3
2010	-11.1	-1.0	-0.2	$400,000	-10.1	0.4
2011	-9.5	0.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.4	0.3
2012	-6.9	0.0	0.0	$400,000	-3.5	0.6
2013	-7.1	2.0	0.0	$450,000	-2.3	0.3
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	$50,000	0.0	2.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.217	.185	.152	.189
2010	.220	.198	.156	.190
2011	.216	.195	.147	.184
2012	.244	.207	.156	.202
2013	.213	.203	.179	.194
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	31%	0%	25%
2010	43%	27%	14%
2011	61%	36%	14%
2012	77%	58%	19%
2013	79%	62%	10%
2014	85%	73%	11%
2015	88%	82%	10%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

55

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Nick Trzesniak	2007	52		11	Jon DeBus	1985	38
2	Jeff Hearron	1988	49		12	Ronn Reynolds	1985	38
3	Javi Herrera	2008	47		13	Jim Campanis	1994	37
4	Mike Hubbard	1998	43		14	Steven Herz	1983	37
5	Robert Machado	2000	41		15	Yohanny Valera	2003	37
6	Steve Swisher	1978	40		16	Doug Lindsey	1994	37
7	Carl Nichols	1989	40		17	Justin Knoedler	2007	36
8	Steven Liddle	1986	40		18	Jimmy Gonzalez	2000	36
9	Jason Moler	1996	39		19	Ryan Jorgensen	2006	36
10	Darryl Cias	1984	38		20	Jim Gaudet	1982	35

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

Although he threw out 34 percent of opposing base thieves in the minors, Donny Lucy's a bad use of a 40-man roster spot.

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