Javier Lopez

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Mid Javier Lopez 45 0 4.41 1.54 48 21 2 30 2 1 1 5.9

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 11:32 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	2	3	67	0	51.3	47	21	37	2	55%	.283	2	1.30	2.76	3.16	2.79	7.7	3.3	6.0	0.4	17.4	1.5	2.1
75^o	3	2	2	59	0	46.3	46	21	32	3	55%	.300	-3	1.43	3.67	3.80	3.68	8.4	3.6	5.8	0.5	10.5	0.9	1.4
60^o	2	2	2	55	0	43.3	45	20	30	3	55%	.308	-5	1.51	4.16	4.14	4.17	8.8	3.9	5.7	0.6	7.3	0.6	1.1
50^o	2	2	1	52	0	41.3	45	20	28	3	55%	.315	-7	1.56	4.55	4.42	4.55	9.2	4.0	5.6	0.6	5.0	0.4	0.8
40^o	2	2	1	49	0	39.3	44	20	26	3	55%	.321	-9	1.62	4.94	4.69	4.93	9.5	4.2	5.5	0.6	2.9	0.2	0.6
25^o	1	2	0	42	0	34.0	42	19	22	3	55%	.338	-15	1.78	6.01	5.46	6.00	10.3	4.6	5.3	0.7	-2.0	-0.2	0.1
10^o	1	2	0	35	0	28.7	38	18	17	3	55%	.355	-21	1.95	7.15	6.26	7.12	11.3	5.1	5.0	0.9	-5.7	-0.5	-0.2
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	52	0	41.3	44	20	28	3	55%	.312	-6	1.54	4.41	4.31	4.42	9.0	4.0	5.6	0.6	5.4	0.5	0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
33%	56%	24%	30%	0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 30)	2	2	1	52	0	41.3	44	20	28	3	55%	.312	-6	1.54	4.41	4.31	4.42	9.0	4.0	5.6	0.6	5.4	0.5	0.9
2009 (age 31)	2	2	1	49	0	39.3	41	18	26	3	55%	.309	-7	1.50	4.49	4.18	4.51	8.9	3.7	5.5	0.6	3.8	0.4	0.7
2010 (age 32)	2	2	1	46	0	35.7	41	17	21	2	54%	.320	-12	1.59	4.89	4.61	4.90	9.6	3.8	5.0	0.6	1.7	0.2	0.4
2011 (age 33)	2	2	1	49	0	38.3	44	18	24	3	56%	.326	-11	1.62	4.80	4.75	4.78	9.8	3.9	5.2	0.6	1.4	0.3	0.3
2012 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.241	.334	.343
vs RHB	.267	.366	.399
Split	-.026	-.033	-.056
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.9	$1,800,000	5.5	3.3
2009	0.7	$1,400,000	3.9	3.1
2010	0.4	$900,000	1.8	0.9
2011	0.3	$800,000	1.5	0.9
2012	0.1	$475,000	0.2	0.1
2013	0.1	$525,000	0.4	0.2
2014	0.1	$550,000	0.5	0.5
Peak	2.5	$3,250,000	12.9	8.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.68	4.55	6.00	4.42
2009	3.65	4.60	6.87	4.51
2010	4.20	5.23	5.93	4.90
2011	3.97	5.11	6.57	4.78
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	30%	0%	33%
2009	53%	26%	27%
2010	65%	43%	11%
2011	73%	55%	10%
2012	80%	71%	6%
2013	89%	80%	8%
2014	92%	85%	6%

53

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Russ Swan	1994	64		11	Jay Powell	2002	39
2	Paul Mirabella	1985	54		12	Graeme Lloyd	1998	38
3	John O'Donoghue	1970	53		13	Jim Shellenback	1974	37
4	Kevin Gryboski	2004	45		14	Juan Agosto	1989	37
5	Mike Mohler	1999	44		15	Randy Choate	2006	36
6	Danny Kolb	2006	41		16	Bob Chipman	1949	36
7	Kelly Wunsch	2003	40		17	Dave Tomlin	1980	35
8	John Morris	1972	40		18	Tom Tellmann	1985	35
9	Luis Sanchez	1984	40		19	Jim Brower	2003	35
10	Paul Reuschel	1978	40		20	Terry Forster	1983	33

Player Comments

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2007

From the department of `Wha?` comes the mid-June exchange in which the Red Sox sent serviceable reliever David Riske to the White Sox for sidearming LOOGY Lopez. Despite a paucity of innings with the Bosox, Lopez`s WXRL was fourth on the team. On his career, he`s held lefties to a .246/.326/.335 showing, but righties have bombed him to the tune of .310/.400/.460, which proves that he`s unsuited for broader responsibilities. Brilliant.

2005

It's pretty hard to rack up 64 appearances and post a 7.52 ERA. If someone does that, you can be pretty sure that he's a) left-handed, and b) probably not on a particularly good team. Like Fuentes, Lopez's numbers just ballooned after a strong 2003. Unlike Fuentes, the spike was supported by a breakdown in his peripherals. He could still rebound at a new address, and the Rockies looked to be shopping him as of this writing.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Mid	Javier Lopez	45	0	4.41	1.54	48	21	2	30	2	1	1	5.9

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	TUC	3A	0	1	2	27	0	24.3	17	12	16	0	71%	.266	-16	1.19	2.22	3.24	3.13	6.3	4.7	3.9	0.4	6.3		0.8
2005	ARI	MJ	1	1	2	29	0	14.3	19	11	11	2	53%	.354	-26	2.09	9.44	7.48	9.00	10.8	6.0	6.0	1.2	-5.8	0.3	-0.4
2005	COL	MJ	0	0	0	3	0	2.0	7	0	1	0	42%	.583	-70	3.50	22.50	29.95	31.50	31.5	0.0	4.5	0.0	-3.4	-0.2	-0.3
2006	CHR	3A	2	1	12	26	0	33.0	28	6	26	1	73%	.293	3	1.03	0.55	4.19	1.55	9.6	2.2	5.6	0.6	13.1		2.8
2006	PAW	3A	0	0	4	13	0	16.0	20	8	12	1	61%	.352	-25	1.75	5.06	6.79	6.75	11.2	5.1	4.5	1.1	-2.0		0.1
2006	BOS	MJ	1	0	1	27	0	16.7	13	10	11	1	67%	.273	-10	1.38	2.69	3.71	4.70	7.0	5.3	5.9	0.6	1.4	0.8	0.4
2007	PAW	3A	2	1	0	17	0	16.7	19	8	15	0	71%	.396	-8	1.62	3.77	6.25	4.70	11.7	4.7	5.9	0.0	1.5		0.6
2007	BOS	MJ	2	1	0	61	0	40.7	36	18	26	2	53%	.279	-6	1.33	3.10	3.80	3.40	8.2	3.6	5.4	0.5	11.3	0.5	1.3

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats