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Paul Lo_Duca
Florida Marlins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 37
5' 10"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NYN MLB 551 80 39 1 5 49 24 38 3 0 -1.7 .318 .355 .428 .069 .322 .358 .436 .276 28.0 114-C -6 2.8
2007 NYN MLB 488 46 18 1 9 54 24 33 2 0 -2.2 .272 .311 .378 -.111 .274 .314 .389 .248 9.6 109-C -4 1.1
2008 POT A+ 17 0 1 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 -0.1 .143 .294 .214 -.868 .067 .176 .067 .000 -3.9 -0.3
2008 ABQ AAA 31 5 1 0 0 7 5 4 0 0 0.4 .423 .516 .462 -.167 .259 .355 .296 .239 -0.4 0.0
2008 COH AAA 15 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 -1.2 .154 .267 .154 -.559 .154 .267 .154 .140 -2.0 -0.2
2008 WAS MLB 153 13 7 0 0 12 9 9 1 0 0.6 .230 .301 .281 -.315 .230 .301 .273 .206 -5.5 18-C -3 13-1B 0 -0.9
2008 FLO MLB 40 3 2 0 0 3 6 2 0 0 -1.2 .294 .400 .353 .010 .294 .400 .353 .276 1.7 5-C -1 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:44 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 232 31 12 0 2 20 21 20 1 0 -1.4 .298 .368 .392 .032 .302 .369 .407 .273 10.1 58-C -4 1.4
75o 207 22 9 0 2 17 17 19 1 0 -1.2 .270 .336 .350 -.104 .274 .337 .364 .247 2.5 52-C -4 0.6
60o 196 18 8 0 1 16 15 19 1 0 -1.1 .258 .321 .331 -.165 .261 .322 .345 .234 -0.4 50-C -4 0.2
50o 189 16 8 0 1 15 14 18 1 0 -1.0 .251 .312 .321 -.200 .254 .313 .334 .227 -1.9 48-C -4 0.1
40o 183 15 7 0 1 15 13 18 1 0 -0.9 .246 .306 .313 -.225 .249 .307 .325 .221 -3.0 47-C -4 0.0
25o 171 12 7 0 1 13 11 17 1 0 -0.9 .234 .292 .295 -.284 .236 .292 .307 .208 -5.1 44-C -4 -0.3
10o 82 3 2 0 0 5 4 10 0 0 -0.3 .173 .215 .204 -.583 .175 .216 .213 .114 -8.2 24-C -3 -0.8
Weighted Mean 189 17 8 0 1 15 14 18 1 0 -1.0 .260 .323 .334 -.164 .263 .324 .347 .235 1.6 48-C -4 0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

16%

32%

35%

41%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 37) 189 17 8 0 1 15 14 18 1 0 -1.0 .260 .323 .334 -.164 .263 .324 .347 .235 1.6 48-C -4 0.3
2010 (age 38) 150 12 6 0 1 12 12 15 0 0 -0.5 .246 .317 .314 -.219 .246 .313 .323 .227 -0.9 39-C -4 0.1
2011 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .276 .345 .365
vs RHP .254 .313 .319
Split +.022 +.032 +.046
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -1.3 -4.0 0.3 $575,000 -1.9 1.8
2010 -2.2 -4.0 0.1 $400,000 -2.9 0.4
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.3 $350,000 0.4 3.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .247 .227 .208 .235
2010 .251 .233 .201 .227
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 41% 0% 16%
2010 77% 41% 6%
2011 91% 67% 2%
2012 97% 86% 3%
2013 97% 91% 4%
2014 100% 95% 2%
2015 100% 100% 1%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

33

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Joe Girardi 2002 58 11 Jamie Quirk 1992 30
2 Brad Ausmus 2006 51 12 Benito Santiago 2002 29
3 Buddy Rosar 1951 49 13 Bert Haas 1951 29
4 Rick Cerone 1991 48 14 Birdie Tebbetts 1950 28
5 Mike Redmond 2008 42 15 Vic Power 1965 27
6 Bill Haselman 2003 38 16 Johnny Roseboro 1970 25
7 Sandy Alomar 2003 36 17 Bob Boone 1985 24
8 Clyde McCullough 1954 36 18 Eddie Perez 2005 23
9 Chris Gomez 2008 30 19 Damian Miller 2007 22
10 Bob Scheffing 1950 30 20 Jim Piersall 1967 22

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Lo Duca has to hit .300 to have a good year, because he doesn't have much in the way of power or patience. In 2007 he lost 46 points off his 2006 average, leaving him virtually naked on the field. That extends to Lo Duca's glove as well; he's error-prone and doesn't throw out many runners. Mix in assorted injuries, some unfriendly press for off- field issues in 2006, and the team's historic collapse in 2007, and it wasn't exactly how the Brooklyn-born Lo Duca would have wanted his Mets career to have ended. A one-year deal has taken him down I-95 to Washington, where he'll replace current Mets backstop Brian Schneider.

2007

Lo Duca wouldn`t have been blamed if he had done his traditional second-half fade last year, or even a first-half fade, given that his marriage imploded in full view of the public when his wife filed for divorce and his affair with a 19 year old hit the tabloids. Instead, Lo Duca seemed to thrive on the adversity, `enjoying` his most consistent season since 2001. Reversing his historical pattern, he was actually better in the second half, batting .338/.369/.450 after the break versus .302/.343/.409 before it. Defensively, Lo Duca has some problems. Catchers` fielding percentages are misleading because they receive a putout for each strikeout caught, thereby disguising their rate of errors on plays in which they actually are active participants. With the strikeouts removed, the fielding percentage for all catchers who caught 100 or more innings last year was .919. Lo Duca made 10 errors in 80 chances for a .875 percentage, which ranked 59th in a group of 72. Limit that group to catchers with 400 or more innings caught and he was 29th out of 33. Over the last three seasons, the `true` fielding percentage of catchers with more than 1000 innings caught was .933; Lo Duca`s .920 ranked 27th of 36. Lo Duca`s contract is up at the end of the year, and given his age and the weakness of his game beyond batting average, the Mets should be considering possible replacements.

2006

Here`s a Frank Loesser/Hoagy Carmichael tune going out to all of the L.A. writers from the gang at BP: `Heart and soul, I fell in love with you? Heart and soul, the way a fool would do, madly, because you held me tight? and stole a kiss in the night?` The erstwhile heart, soul, and solar plexus of the Dodgers, for whom sun coast scribes still nurse giant, unfulfilled man-crushes, turns out to be a run-of-the-mill ballplayer when it comes to doing the things like hitting? and fielding, only the main parts of a ballplayer`s job. Leadership doesn`t compensate for shortcomings in those departments, no matter how much willfully na?ve romantics would like to believe otherwise. Traded to the Mets, he`ll be the scrappy, popular esophagus of the club, and he may even pick up a home run or two he lost to Dolphins Stadium, but not many more than that. Signed through 2007; he won`t be a Met past that point.

2005

That 690 OPS as a Marlin includes a hot first week in teal. Just as he'd done in '02 and '03, he fell apart in August and September. Lo Duca's ability to stay in the lineup and hit for decent averages will earn him a pretty penny in arbitration, far more than he's likely to be worth on the field. The Dodgers got the best years of his career for less than $8 million, or near what Lo Duca will make in 2005 alone.

2003

In last year’s book, we wrote: “His fundamental skills are very good, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t perform as well as the projection above indicates.” So what went wrong? Maybe not as much as you’d think. Lo Duca’s home runs plunged from 25 to 10, but his doubles spiked to 38 from 28, suggesting bad luck more than sudden skill erosion. Lo Duca’s still a solid hitter for a catcher—he rarely walks, rarely strikes out and drives the ball into the ample Dodger Stadium gaps. He has worked hard to become an asset behind the plate too. The victim of two late-season fades in a row, the Dodgers hope Todd Hundley can soak up enough starts to keep Lo Duca fresh into September.

2002

Uh...okay. We don't know where his 2001 performance came from, but we're impressed. LoDuca came out of nowhere to have a great, insanely strange season, and he was a big part of keeping the Dodgers in contention when they really didn't belong there. LoDuca is solid defensively, and most of the pitchers like working with him behind the plate. His fundamental skills are very good, so there's no reason to believe that he won't perform as well as the projection above indicates.

2001

Along with Kreuter, Paul LoDuca gives the Dodgers a couple of good #2 catchers. If Angel Pena doesn't get over his weight problems, the Dodgers can get by in 2001. Beyond that, they'll have to find a more permanent solution.

2000

The current organizational frown directed at Angel Pena could earn LoDuca some more time towards his pension. He may actually be a better fit than Pena for the platoon/defensive replacement role. LoDuca deserves a major-league job, certainly ahead of the Kirt Manwaring and Joe Girardi types.

1996

He was converted to catcher this season, after primarily being a first baseman and DH, and between Piazza, Huckaby, and eventually Ryan Luzinski, he has no future in the organization.


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