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Brad Lidge
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 32
6' 5"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Closer Brad Lidge 18 0 4.46 1.36 16 10 2 22 1 1 14 1.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 HOU MLB 1 5 32 78 0 75.0 69 36 104 10 47% .335 34 1.40 5.28 -6 4.42 8.4 3.6 10.5 1.0 3.3 0.8 2.8
2007 CCH AA 0 0 0 1 1 1.0 0 0 0 0 0% .000 -16 0.00 0.00 1 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
2007 HOU MLB 5 3 19 66 0 67.0 54 30 88 9 45% .300 30 1.25 3.36 -3 3.18 7.1 3.4 10.1 1.1 14.7 2.2 3.8
2008 CLR A+ 0 0 0 1 1 1.0 2 1 2 1 0% .500 -145 3.00 9.00 0 27.00 40.5 13.5 13.5 27.0 -1.7 0.0 -0.1
2008 PHI MLB 2 0 41 72 0 69.3 50 35 92 2 48% .302 33 1.23 1.95 -3 1.82 6.9 3.9 10.0 0.3 26.5 7.6 5.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:33 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 5 4 32 55 0 61.3 46 27 78 5 46% .289 29 1.20 2.52 0 2.61 6.7 3.5 9.9 0.7 21.5 3.3 5.3
75o 5 4 29 52 0 59.0 47 27 74 5 46% .294 26 1.25 2.86 0 2.97 7.0 3.6 9.7 0.8 18.2 2.7 4.5
60o 4 4 26 50 0 57.0 47 27 70 5 46% .299 24 1.30 3.17 0 3.29 7.3 3.7 9.5 0.8 15.5 2.3 3.8
50o 4 4 25 49 0 55.7 47 27 68 6 46% .302 23 1.32 3.32 0 3.45 7.5 3.8 9.4 0.9 14.2 2.0 3.5
40o 4 4 22 47 0 53.7 47 27 64 6 46% .306 20 1.37 3.66 0 3.80 7.8 3.9 9.2 0.9 11.4 1.6 2.9
25o 3 4 17 43 0 48.7 47 26 55 6 46% .317 15 1.48 4.40 0 4.57 8.5 4.2 8.7 1.1 6.1 0.8 1.7
10o 2 3 11 37 0 42.3 45 25 44 7 45% .330 7 1.65 5.49 0 5.68 9.6 4.6 8.1 1.4 -0.2 0.0 0.5
Weighted Mean 4 4 24 50 0 56.3 48 28 68 6 46% .304 22 1.34 3.47 0 3.61 7.6 3.9 9.3 0.9 12.8 1.9 3.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

59%

21%

16%

0.80

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 32) 4 4 24 50 0 56.3 48 28 68 6 46% .304 22 1.34 3.47 0 3.61 7.6 3.9 9.3 0.9 12.8 1.9 3.0
2010 (age 33) 4 4 23 51 0 57.0 49 28 65 6 45% .295 17 1.35 3.65 0 3.80 7.6 3.9 8.8 0.9 9.9 1.7 2.4
2011 (age 34) 3 4 19 44 0 49.3 45 25 53 6 45% .304 14 1.42 3.88 0 4.01 8.2 4.0 8.4 1.0 6.9 1.2 1.6
2012 (age 35) 3 3 16 42 0 46.3 43 24 47 5 45% .303 10 1.44 4.22 0 4.40 8.3 4.1 7.9 0.9 4.1 0.9 1.0
2013 (age 36) 3 3 14 34 0 39.3 37 20 42 4 45% .309 13 1.44 4.13 0 4.29 8.4 4.0 8.3 1.0 3.7 0.8 0.9
2014 (age 37) 2 3 13 32 0 37.0 35 17 35 3 48% .303 10 1.39 3.90 0 4.09 8.4 3.6 7.4 0.8 3.3 0.9 0.8
2015 (age 38) 2 3 12 31 0 35.3 34 19 33 4 47% .302 6 1.49 4.25 0 4.45 8.6 4.3 7.2 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .220 .332 .348
vs RHB .202 .295 .310
Split +.018 +.037 +.037
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 3.0 $4,250,000 12.3 8.0
2010 2.4 $3,525,000 9.5 5.9
2011 1.6 $2,650,000 6.5 3.9
2012 1.0 $1,850,000 3.8 2.0
2013 0.9 $1,800,000 3.4 1.5
2014 0.8 $1,775,000 3.1 1.4
2015 0.5 $1,425,000 1.9 0.7
Peak 9.8 $11,375,000 35.5 22.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 2.97 3.45 4.57 3.61
2010 3.07 3.73 5.05 3.80
2011 3.13 4.24 5.34 4.01
2012 3.31 4.29 5.93 4.40
2013 3.73 4.49 5.61 4.29
2014 3.61 4.05 4.95 4.09
2015 3.72 4.17 5.50 4.45


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 16% 0% 30%
2010 26% 15% 20%
2011 38% 26% 18%
2012 50% 40% 9%
2013 65% 45% 4%
2014 71% 56% 7%
2015 71% 65% 6%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

41

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Eric Plunk 1996 55 11 Jim Brewer 1970 36
2 Jim Gott 1992 53 12 Todd Jones 2000 35
3 Lee Smith 1990 52 13 Jeff Nelson 1999 35
4 Joe Page 1950 46 14 Moe Drabowsky 1968 34
5 Francisco Cordero 2007 45 15 Kyle Farnsworth 2008 32
6 Roberto Hernandez 1997 45 16 Troy Percival 2002 32
7 Eric Gagne 2008 44 17 Robb Nen 2002 32
8 Scott Service 1999 39 18 Scot Shields 2008 31
9 Arthur Rhodes 2002 38 19 Brian Fuentes 2008 30
10 Jim Kern 1981 37 20 Mark Clear 1988 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

As expected, Lidge bounced back from his poor 2006 to be one of the best relievers in the game again last year. The thing is, his rates have shown very little variation over the past three seasons seen above. His BABIP allowed dropped 30 points last year, all of which went to his ERA, but he didn't actually pitch much differently in 2006 than in the two stronger years surrounding it. Dealt to Philadelphia, Lidge will find his new home park no more forgiving of his fly-ball tendencies than Minute Maid was.

2007

The joke goes that the ball Albert Pujols hit off Brad Lidge in the 2005 NLCS still hasn`t landed. If so, it appears to have taken Lidge`s confidence along for the ride. Sabermetric orthodoxy would suggest that anyone can close, but Lidge never seemed to recover from that shot to the ego, flailing in the closer role last year. For those looking for a physical explanation for his poor showing, Lidge has a long history of arm and specifically elbow issues (as a starter in the low minors, he appeared in just 19 games from 1999 to 2001) owing to his violent mechanics. His struggles with his control last year just might be a portent of another date with the surgeon`s table.

2006

Lidge is being pilloried for his postseason failures more than he should be because Albert Pujols is just that good. He has tremendous power and control, a healthy shoulder, a slider that righties lose sleep over, and there`s no team in baseball that wouldn`t love to have him. Don`t believe the backlash: Lidge is a complete and utter badass and could put up numbers in 2006 that would make Goose Gossage proud.

2005

Lidge was important to the Astros not just for the quality of his pitching, but because his performance enabled the team to trade Octavio Dotel for Carlos Beltran, a deal that fell just short of putting them in the World Series. He's not young; remember that he basically lost three years to arm problems, making just 19 appearances from 1999 through 2001. If recent history is a guide, he'll pitch another three months at his 2004 level, then regress just a bit.

2003

If you’ve ever owned a Jaguar XKE with the V-12, you understand the hope and despair associated with a cranky, high-performance piece of machinery. The organization coddled Lidge through 131.1 innings last year, a total that exceeded his previous four professional seasons combined. Lidge’s extreme brittleness prevents him from carrying a starter’s workload or recovering quickly enough to survive Williams’s typical reliever usage. It’s worth creating a unique role for his hard fastball and untouchable slider: regularly scheduled multi-inning relief appearances. Lidge could prepare for them like a start and they also would give his overworked bullpen mates needed days off. Don’t bet on it happening.

2002

Health problems have been a consistent issue for Lidge, as he’s missed most of the past three seasons. Last year, it was shoulder problems that required surgery. Although he can deal in the mid-90s, he’s had to change his throwing motion, and he dropped his curve for a slider. Nothing has helped keep him healthy. Lidge is a prospect in the same way that Jeff D’Amico (the big one on the Brewers) is a Cy Young candidate, but he’s talented enough to become an outstanding reliever someday.

2001

Unlike Ireland, Brad Lidge has no problem keeping his innings down. That's because the former #1 pick has suffered a number of injuries. What makes his health record so frustrating to the Astros is how well he’s pitched when he’s able to take the mound (just 14 times the last two seasons). He was healthy enough to pitch in the AFL briefly and handled himself well for someone who has yet to pitch above A-ball. He definitely knows how to pitch and could be the Jeff D’Amico of 2003. Of course, that would mean he missed most of 2001 and 2002.


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