Justin Lehr

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Reds Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Justin Lehr 39 6 4.85 1.34 40 13 4 18 2 3 0 1.8

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:33 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	5	0	29	15	104.7	103	33	59	9	49%	.280	5	1.30	3.94	0	4.15	8.8	2.5	4.4	0.7	18.2	2.4	2.8
75^o	6	6	0	30	14	98.0	104	32	54	10	48%	.291	1	1.39	4.55	0	4.78	9.5	2.6	4.3	0.9	9.9	1.6	1.9
60^o	5	6	0	30	13	91.0	105	31	49	12	48%	.303	-3	1.49	5.23	0	5.47	10.2	2.7	4.2	1.1	2.0	0.7	1.0
50^o	4	6	0	31	12	84.7	104	30	44	13	48%	.314	-6	1.58	5.89	0	6.12	10.9	2.8	4.1	1.3	-4.5	0.0	0.3
40^o	4	6	0	30	11	79.3	103	29	41	13	48%	.323	-9	1.66	6.43	0	6.66	11.6	2.9	4.0	1.5	-9.2	-0.5	-0.3
25^o	3	6	0	30	10	72.3	101	27	36	14	47%	.335	-13	1.77	7.22	0	7.43	12.4	3.0	3.9	1.7	-14.8	-1.0	-0.9
10^o	2	4	0	26	7	50.3	87	22	22	14	46%	.373	-26	2.15	10.00	0	10.10	15.4	3.4	3.5	2.5	-26.0	-2.2	-2.2
Weighted Mean	4	5	0	31	11	82.0	97	29	44	11	48%	.308	-5	1.53	5.51	0	5.75	10.6	2.7	4.1	1.2	-0.8	0.3	0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
9%	31%	43%	30%	1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 31)	4	5	0	31	11	82.0	97	29	44	11	48%	.308	-5	1.53	5.51	0	5.75	10.6	2.7	4.1	1.2	-0.8	0.3	0.5
2010 (age 32)	4	5	0	31	10	78.3	90	26	41	10	49%	.303	-6	1.49	5.18	0	5.41	10.3	2.7	4.1	1.1	1.5	0.6	0.5
2011 (age 33)	3	4	0	28	7	62.7	79	19	29	10	44%	.313	-11	1.57	5.82	0	6.00	11.3	2.4	3.6	1.4	-1.2	0.0	0.1
2012 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.273	.353	.428
vs RHB	.274	.340	.433
Split	-.002	+.013	-.005
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.5	$675,000	-2.0	3.6
2010	0.5	$900,000	0.8	3.2
2011	0.1	$450,000	-1.6	1.1
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	1.3	$925,000	1.4	9.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.78	6.12	7.43	5.75
2010	4.89	5.79	7.46	5.41
2011	5.64	6.60	7.71	6.00
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	30%	0%	9%
2010	60%	39%	8%
2011	71%	58%	4%
2012	88%	78%	1%
2013	92%	87%	1%
2014	92%	90%	2%
2015	95%	94%	2%

66

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Tom Filer	1988	67		11	Tomo Ohka	2008	53
2	Dave Eiland	1998	67		12	Tom Brown	1981	53
3	Eddie Solomon	1983	62		13	Brian Tollberg	2004	52
4	John Desilva	1999	62		14	Terry Leach	1986	51
5	Wally Whitehurst	1996	61		15	Rod Bolton	2000	50
6	Brady Raggio	2004	61		16	Don Wengert	2001	49
7	Bruce Dal Canton	1974	56		17	Brian Keyser	1998	49
8	Jerry Reed	1987	55		18	Billy Muffett	1962	49
9	Adam Bernero	2008	55		19	Larry Luebbers	2001	49
10	John Buzhardt	1968	53		20	Joe Mays	2007	48

Player Comments

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2007

Justin Lehr opened the year in the Brewer bullpen, but pitched his way down to Nashville after two months, only to be promoted to starting. The converted catcher isn`t making headway.

2006

`Panzer` might not be blitzing Poland anytime soon, let alone taking Nashville by storm. The Brewers will settle for letting him take his best shot at winning either the fifth starter`s job or a middle relief gig. If he`s been a moderately successful conversion project for a former catcher, that`s about as high as his ceiling is going to go.

2005

Another former position player turned pitcher, "Panzer" has a nifty power assortment: a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a mid-80s splitter he doesn't tip out of a sneaky delivery, and a solid curveball. Although the A's gave him a look, he never did get consistent work, so it was hard for him to settle in. He could become a much more significant asset in Milwaukee's pen than PECOTA's allowing for.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Justin Lehr	39	6	4.85	1.34	40	13	4	18	2	3	0	1.8

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	NAS	AAA	4	7	0	19	17	112.1	120	31	90	15	51%	.307	-8	1.35	3.93	10	6.19	12.0	2.9	5.2	1.8	-6.6	0.0	0.5
2006	MIL	MLB	2	1	0	16	0	15.7	24	7	12	2	47%	.431	10	1.98	8.60	-6	4.80	14.4	3.6	6.6	1.2	-5.5	0.0	0.4
2007	TAC	AAA	7	1	1	27	17	119.7	132	41	61	8	49%	.316	-23	1.45	3.98	11	6.42	9.7	3.3	3.1	0.9	-10.5	0.0	0.3
2008	LOU	AAA	6	2	1	16	8	64.3	51	11	41	5	52%	.254	-16	0.96	2.10	12	4.55	8.0	1.8	3.8	1.1	6.9	0.0	1.6

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats