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Jason LaRue
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 35
5' 11"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Cardinals Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 7 Jason LaRue 15 34 .196 3 1 3 0 .261 .306 -0.7
1   2009 Total 15 34 .196 3 1 3 0 .261 .306 -0.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SAR A+ 13 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0.3 .167 .231 .167 -.894 .083 .154 .083 .000 -3.1 -0.2
2006 CIN MLB 230 22 5 0 8 21 27 51 1 0 -1.0 .194 .317 .346 -.262 .181 .306 .326 .229 -4.7 57-C 5 0.7
2007 OMA AAA 15 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 -0.4 .083 .214 .167 -.830 .077 .143 .154 .000 -2.5 -0.3
2007 KCA MLB 195 14 9 0 4 13 17 66 1 0 -0.4 .148 .240 .272 -.477 .143 .236 .274 .180 -13.2 54-C 4 -0.4
2008 SLN MLB 189 17 8 1 4 21 15 20 0 0 0.4 .213 .296 .348 -.200 .218 .299 .370 .236 -2.1 46-C 2 0.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:35 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 182 23 10 1 5 21 16 32 0 0 -0.8 .269 .345 .441 .045 .272 .347 .464 .277 9.2 47-C 2 1.7
75o 165 16 7 1 4 17 14 30 0 0 -0.6 .234 .310 .370 -.139 .236 .312 .389 .244 1.3 43-C 1 0.9
60o 157 14 6 0 3 15 13 29 0 0 -0.6 .219 .296 .342 -.213 .221 .298 .360 .230 -1.5 41-C 1 0.6
50o 151 12 6 0 3 14 12 28 0 0 -0.5 .208 .285 .319 -.271 .209 .287 .336 .217 -3.5 40-C 1 0.4
40o 145 11 5 0 2 13 12 27 0 0 -0.5 .198 .276 .301 -.318 .200 .278 .317 .207 -5.0 38-C 1 0.2
25o 132 8 4 0 2 11 11 25 0 0 -0.4 .178 .255 .261 -.421 .180 .257 .274 .181 -7.7 35-C 0 -0.2
10o 60 1 1 0 0 2 5 13 0 0 -0.2 .112 .186 .131 -.752 .113 .187 .138 .044 -8.1 19-C -1 -0.6
Weighted Mean 148 12 6 0 3 15 12 27 0 0 -0.5 .215 .292 .333 -.247 .217 .294 .350 .223 -0.5 39-C 1 0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

43%

58%

33%

54%

1.03

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 35) 148 12 6 0 3 15 12 27 0 0 -0.5 .215 .292 .333 -.247 .217 .294 .350 .223 -0.5 39-C 1 0.6
2010 (age 36) 116 8 4 0 2 10 10 22 0 0 -0.3 .213 .292 .314 -.277 .211 .290 .326 .218 -1.5 32-C 1 0.3
2011 (age 37) 128 10 5 0 2 12 12 22 0 0 -0.2 .216 .302 .328 -.240 .215 .299 .340 .227 -0.6 34-C -1 0.2
2012 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .229 .308 .359
vs RHP .211 .285 .321
Split +.018 +.023 +.037
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -1.7 1.0 0.6 $850,000 -0.3 2.2
2010 -1.9 1.0 0.3 $600,000 -1.5 0.8
2011 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 $625,000 -1.0 0.6
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 1.2 $975,000 0.1 4.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .244 .217 .181 .223
2010 .249 .224 .164 .218
2011 .255 .219 .155 .227
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 54% 0% 43%
2010 81% 40% 37%
2011 86% 66% 33%
2012 90% 74% 29%
2013 95% 83% 21%
2014 98% 92% 12%
2015 98% 96% 9%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

46

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Sal Butera 1988 58 11 Dave Valle 1996 44
2 Joe Oliver 2000 52 12 Duffy Dyer 1980 42
3 Danny Sheaffer 1996 52 13 Ron Tingley 1994 41
4 Larry Cox 1982 50 14 Keith Osik 2004 40
5 Bob Swift 1950 49 15 Ray Murray 1953 40
6 Mike Difelice 2004 47 16 Chris Widger 2006 40
7 Mickey Grasso 1955 46 17 Del Crandall 1965 39
8 Randy Hundley 1977 46 18 Jim Hegan 1955 39
9 Gary Bennett 2007 45 19 Lenny Webster 2000 38
10 J.C. Martin 1972 45 20 Jeff Newman 1983 37

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

1. Ray Oyler, 1968: .135
2. Chris Bando, 1985: .139
3. Vic Harris, 1972: .140
4. Jose Oliva, 1995: .142
5. Jason LaRue, 2007: .148

A torrid September (he hit .227!) kept LaRue from ranking second on this list. You would think a team that has a 26-year-old catcher who started the year on fire would play him as much as possible over a 34-year-old backstop in the last year of his contract who is struggling to hit his wife's weight. You're obviously not Buddy Bell. Having returned to the weaker league by signing with the Cardinals, LaRue's a sure bet to get that average back over .170.

2007

The combination of a preseason knee injury and the incredible hot streak of David Ross reduced the five-year incumbent backstop to `what have you done for me lately` status. If he`s healthy and gets a larger share of playing time in Kansas City at John Buck`s expense, he might reward the Royals` decision to take on $2.5 million of what he`s owed for 2007, especially if he thrives in the first three or four months and Dayton Moore sensibly flips him at the deadline.

2006

LaRue has settled comfortably into a useful role, and even improved in 2005, posting modest career highs in BA, SLG, and OBP. Platooning with Javier Valentin helped, but LaRue`s increased walk rate was mostly negated by his big drop in getting on base by taking one (or several) for the team. LaRue`s power comes on mistake fastballs; his long swing and average bat speed make him vulnerable to breaking and off-speed stuff. Defensively, LaRue`s accurate arm remains his primary asset, gunning 33% of base bandits.

2005

Like a kid holding his nose while gulping down castor oil, you can try to look past the brutal 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and focus on the curative powers of LaRue's 41 extra-base hits. His .337 OBP, modest as it is, is also a career high, and his third straight year of improvement as a regular. LaRue's defense is another matter: Known for his ability to gun down would-be basestealers—he punched out an astounding 61% in 2001, 45% in 2002, winning Michael Wolverton's Golden Gun award for catchers both seasons—he's tossed out a more pedestrian 27% and 30% the last two seasons. Add it all up, and you get a player who's like anyone else—not nearly as good as his best moments, nor as bad as his worst. The Reds brought him back for $3 million, at the high end of what they should be willing to pay.

2003

BP’s 2001 Golden Gun winner hauled home the far less-coveted lead glove last year by allowing 20 passed balls, five more than any other NL team. Jared Fernandez wasn’t the sole culprit, since LaRue caught less than half of the knuckleballer’s 50 innings. Naturally, the miscues didn’t sit well with his seven-time Gold Glove–winning manager. Either LaRue or Kelly Stinnett will be leaving town to make room for Corky Miller. The Reds would prefer to keep LaRue, who is Stinnett’s equal offensively, but younger and cheaper.

2002

One element of the catcher’s job that gets overlooked is the difficulty of adapting to catching major-league-quality breaking stuff. How much of that does a catcher really see in the minors? How many of those breaking balls are thrown for strikes so that you can work on framing them effectively? LaRue has yet to fully make the adjustment, but he has improved. He’s rumored to be on the block, and his trade value will never get much higher than it is now.

2001

Jason LaRue got jobbed out of playing time when the Reds brought in Benito Santiago. Eddie Taubensee's big September in 1999 had buried LaRue as a starter, anyway. He'll be around for a while; think Brook Fordyce's career path.

2000

The injury to Brian Johnson brought him to the majors as Eddie Taubensee’s caddy, a role that fits him. He won’t hit enough to be a regular, so backing up a left-handed-hitting catcher who is below average defensively makes the most of what he does well. LaRue has no star value.

1999

We said last year that he needed a two-level jump this year to get noticed; he did it, and excelled at Double-A. Of course, we said the jump was doubtful, which shows what we know. The power increase was dramatic, and enough to make him a star behind the plate. Now the #1 catcher in the Reds' system, and a threat to Taubensee this summer.

1998

LaRue tied for the minor league lead with 50 doubles. Unfortunately he did it at age 23 in the Sally League, which dampens our enthusiasm significantly. He showed little power other than the doubles and the rest of his game is unspectacular. Needs about a two-level jump this year to get noticed; doubtful.


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