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Dan Kolb
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 33
6' 4"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 ATL MJ 3 8 11 65 0 57.7 78 29 39 5 54% .378 -17 1.87 5.93 7.32 6.99 12.5 4.2 5.7 0.8 -4.6 -2.0 0.2
2006 MIL MJ 2 2 1 53 0 48.3 53 20 26 4 54% .310 -13 1.51 4.84 4.40 4.47 9.5 3.2 4.5 0.6 4.6 0.0 1.2
2007 IND 3A 2 1 4 18 0 20.0 19 9 16 0 64% .311 -8 1.40 3.15 4.35 3.72 8.8 4.2 5.1 0.0 4.0 1.1
2007 PIT MJ 0 0 0 3 0 3.0 6 2 2 1 42% .500 -62 2.67 9.00 22.12 15.00 18.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 11:00 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 2 1 1 29 0 32.3 33 13 18 3 52% .285 -10 1.41 3.26 3.81 3.25 8.6 3.4 4.5 0.7 9.2 0.7 1.1
75o 1 1 1 26 0 28.3 34 13 15 2 52% .319 -15 1.63 4.92 4.88 4.88 10.0 3.8 4.5 0.8 2.3 0.2 0.5
60o 1 1 0 25 0 26.7 34 13 14 2 52% .334 -17 1.73 5.64 5.36 5.59 10.7 3.9 4.4 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.2
50o 1 1 0 23 0 25.3 34 13 14 2 52% .345 -19 1.81 6.23 5.74 6.17 11.2 4.1 4.5 0.8 -2.0 -0.2 0.1
40o 1 1 0 23 0 24.7 34 13 13 2 52% .351 -20 1.85 6.58 5.97 6.52 11.5 4.2 4.4 0.8 -3.0 -0.3 0.0
25o 1 1 0 20 0 21.7 33 12 12 2 52% .378 -25 2.05 8.12 6.95 8.04 12.7 4.5 4.4 0.9 -6.7 -0.6 -0.4
10o 0 1 0 10 0 19.7 -1 2 11 1 52% -.047 #NUM! 0.01 8.56 #NUM! 15.11 0.0 0.7 4.7 0.3 -23.3 -1.6 -1.8
Weighted Mean 1 1 0 19 0 20.7 26 10 11 2 52% .336 -18 1.75 5.86 5.44 5.82 10.8 4.0 4.5 0.8 -0.8 -0.1 0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

24%

42%

29%

52%

1.15

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 33) 1 1 0 19 0 20.7 26 10 11 2 52% .336 -18 1.75 5.86 5.44 5.82 10.8 4.0 4.5 0.8 -0.8 -0.1 0.2
2009 (age 34) 1 1 0 23 0 25.7 32 11 15 2 53% .338 -16 1.70 5.51 5.22 5.48 10.7 3.6 4.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2
2010 (age 35) 1 2 0 28 0 28.3 41 14 15 2 49% .366 -22 1.92 6.27 6.18 6.14 12.3 4.0 4.2 0.7 -0.7 -0.2 0.0
2011 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .295 .400 .435
vs RHB .278 .354 .393
Split +.017 +.046 +.042
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.2 $450,000 -0.7 0.7
2009 0.2 $450,000 0.2 0.4
2010 0.0 $400,000 -0.6 0.0
2011 0.1 $525,000 0.6 0.3
2012 0.1 $525,000 0.5 0.5
2013 0.0 $425,000 0.1 0.2
2014 0.0 $400,000 0.0 0.0
Peak 0.6 $350,000 1.4 2.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.88 6.17 8.04 5.82
2009 4.79 6.02 8.03 5.48
2010 4.88 6.73 8.57 6.14
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 52% 0% 24%
2009 71% 48% 22%
2010 79% 62% 14%
2011 85% 83% 17%
2012 91% 87% 14%
2013 94% 89% 11%
2014 97% 95% 11%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

34

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Todd Frohwirth 1996 55 11 Frank Linzy 1973 23
2 Mike Barlow 1981 46 12 Matt Whiteside 2000 23
3 Mike Mohler 2001 38 13 Harry Taylor 1952 23
4 Ed Roebuck 1964 32 14 Jim Brower 2006 22
5 Jay Powell 2005 31 15 Jim Coates 1965 22
6 Ray King 2007 29 16 John Montague 1980 21
7 Doug Sisk 1990 29 17 John Morris 1974 21
8 Bucky Brandon 1973 26 18 Roger McDowell 1994 21
9 Buddy Groom 1998 25 19 Dickie Noles 1990 20
10 Dan Osinski 1967 24 20 Larry Sherry 1968 20

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Having gone pumpkin in 2005 when his ground-ball voodoo didn`t work in Atlanta, Kolb is now generally recognized as not the kind of pitcher to be trusted with men on base. After taking a second look, the Brewers rightly let him walk. Kolb remains unsigned at this writing, but someone will give him a shot at an eleventh- or twelfth-man spot in their pen; his days of protecting late leads should be over.

2005

How unique was Dan Kolb in 2004? He made the All-Star team despite posting a higher groundball-to-flyball ratio (3.33) than strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate (3.30). He allowed three runs in the first three months of the season while striking out just ten batters. The clock struck midnight in the second half, as his post-All-Star break ERA was 4.88. Kolb's ability to keep the ball on the ground helps him survive his inability to get people out at the plate, but he's not the dominant run-preventing force that he appeared to be in the first half. The Brewers wisely sent him and his newfound "proven closer" label to Atlanta for youngster Jose Capellan, who simply gets hitters out the old fashioned way: 100 MPH fastballs.

2003

Kolb returned from a rotator cuff tear in mid-season and once again impressed with his stuff if not his numbers. Despite all of his arm problems, he hasn’t yet gone the junkballer route, still throwing a sinking fastball in the mid-90s and a vicious slider. Signed to a one-year contract, he’s part of the Rangers middle relief picture for this year, at least until his next catastrophic arm breakdown. The over/under on that is May 15.

2002

Yes, he’s still hanging around. Danny Kolb returned from elbow surgery with his good heat intact, and he is working from ahead in the count more often since becoming a reliever and dumping his off-speed junk. Kolb is free to sign with another organization, but he’d be wise to stay put, as there should be opportunities galore in the Junior Circuit’s worst bullpen.

2000

Despite showing very little in the minors, Kolb surprisingly found himself on the "Oklahoma shuttle" of minor leaguers rotating through Arlington. Even more surprisingly, he pitched pretty well for the big club. He impressed the Ranger coaches enough to earn a shot at fifth starter or long reliever in spring training, but I don't expect much. Those three years of mediocrity in the minors are more telling than 31 good innings in the majors.

1999

The organization's biggest flop in recent years. Two years ago he was the consensus best arm in the farm system, and a likely future major leaguer. But he stalled in high-A in '97, and fizzled further in AA last year. And if that news wasn't bad enough, he threw an alarmingly high number of pitches for his age in '98. A move to the bullpen could resurrect his career.

1997

This guy is the pitcher the Rangers are highest on. Their sixth-round pick from 1995, he throws a mid-90s fastball, but his control isn’t up to major league standards yet.


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