Kyle Kendrick

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:32 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	8	6	0	21	21	124.0	130	40	61	15	48%	.278	9	1.37	4.05	-1	4.20	9.3	2.6	3.8	1.0	20.9	3.0	3.2
75^o	7	7	0	20	20	113.0	129	40	55	16	48%	.294	5	1.49	4.92	-1	5.10	10.2	2.8	3.8	1.2	7.4	1.6	1.7
60^o	6	7	0	20	20	109.3	128	39	53	16	48%	.300	4	1.53	5.23	-1	5.41	10.5	2.8	3.8	1.3	3.1	1.2	1.3
50^o	5	7	0	19	19	104.0	127	39	50	16	48%	.308	2	1.59	5.69	0	5.88	10.9	2.9	3.7	1.4	-2.7	0.5	0.6
40^o	5	7	0	19	19	97.3	125	38	47	16	48%	.318	0	1.67	6.29	0	6.50	11.5	3.0	3.7	1.5	-9.4	-0.2	-0.1
25^o	4	7	0	23	15	85.0	120	36	40	16	48%	.337	-9	1.82	7.44	0	7.66	12.6	3.3	3.7	1.7	-19.6	-1.3	-1.3
10^o	2	6	0	21	11	61.3	101	29	29	15	48%	.371	-18	2.12	9.94	0	10.21	14.7	3.8	3.6	2.1	-32.3	-2.7	-2.8
Weighted Mean	5	6	0	23	16	97.3	115	35	47	14	48%	.302	0	1.54	5.35	0	5.54	10.6	2.8	3.7	1.3	1.3	0.8	0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
13%	37%	39%	40%	1.16

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 24)	5	6	0	23	16	97.3	115	35	47	14	48%	.302	0	1.54	5.35	0	5.54	10.6	2.8	3.7	1.3	1.3	0.8	0.8
2010 (age 25)	5	6	0	28	14	93.7	111	32	50	13	47%	.306	-1	1.52	5.21	0	5.39	10.5	2.7	4.1	1.3	2.7	0.8	0.9
2011 (age 26)	6	7	0	31	16	106.0	128	33	57	19	48%	.306	-2	1.52	5.53	0	5.69	10.8	2.5	4.2	1.5	-0.3	0.6	0.5
2012 (age 27)	6	7	0	32	15	107.3	128	33	57	14	48%	.311	0	1.50	5.09	0	5.28	10.6	2.4	4.1	1.2	3.2	1.1	0.8
2013 (age 28)	6	6	1	35	12	99.7	111	31	56	13	47%	.295	0	1.42	4.62	0	4.78	9.9	2.5	4.3	1.2	7.3	1.4	1.2
2014 (age 29)	5	5	1	35	9	86.3	99	26	47	12	48%	.301	-2	1.45	4.85	0	5.02	10.2	2.4	4.3	1.2	5.2	0.9	1.0
2015 (age 30)	3	4	0	28	7	66.0	82	22	35	10	46%	.316	-5	1.57	5.41	0	5.55	11.1	2.6	4.1	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.297	.383	.490
vs RHB	.283	.345	.439
Split	+.015	+.038	+.051
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.8	$1,050,000	0.0	5.1
2010	0.9	$1,275,000	1.6	5.9
2011	0.5	$900,000	-1.5	4.1
2012	0.8	$1,500,000	2.3	4.7
2013	1.2	$2,650,000	6.5	8.5
2014	1.0	$2,225,000	4.3	7.0
2015	0.5	$1,225,000	0.0	4.1
Peak	5.3	$5,250,000	14.7	35.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	5.10	5.88	7.66	5.54
2010	4.73	5.97	7.74	5.39
2011	4.82	5.96	7.20	5.69
2012	4.68	5.58	6.95	5.28
2013	4.13	4.84	6.40	4.78
2014	4.51	5.33	7.60	5.02
2015	4.44	5.53	8.10	5.55

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	40%	0%	13%
2010	45%	12%	10%
2011	44%	22%	11%
2012	56%	31%	11%
2013	59%	35%	25%
2014	59%	39%	11%
2015	61%	45%	8%

53

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Esteban Loaiza	1996	59		11	John Buzhardt	1961	43
2	Joe Niekro	1969	57		12	Jimmy Jones	1989	42
3	Brian Meadows	2000	54		13	Alan Foster	1971	39
4	Bryan Rekar	1997	47		14	Charlie Leibrandt	1981	38
5	Tom Morgan	1955	47		15	Rollie Fingers	1971	36
6	Nate Cornejo	2004	46		16	Mark Clark	1993	36
7	Ricky Bones	1994	46		17	Steve Blass	1967	36
8	Mike Lincoln	2000	45		18	Johnny Kucks	1958	35
9	Jerry Janeski	1971	44		19	Skip Lockwood	1971	34
10	Chad Durbin	2002	44		20	Shawn Boskie	1992	33

Player Comments

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2008

Kendrick saved the Phillies last year. With Freddy Garcia checking out of the rotation in early June, and Jon Lieber about to do likewise, Kendrick checked in and gave the team 13 quality starts in 20 tries. He should get his medal now, because as long as his strikeout rate stays as low as it is, there won't be too many more reasons to honor him. Another thing that won't happen again: a slightly above-average rate of line drives allowed (21 percent) yielding a below-average batting average on balls in play (.285).

2007

A former high school quarterback, Kyle Kendrick made improvements in his off-speed stuff to complement a good moving fastball.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	LWD	A	3	2	0	7	7	46.2	34	15	54	0	52%	.291	7	1.06	2.14	2	6.07	10.6	4.5	5.4	0.7	-2.1	0.0	0.3
2006	CLR	A+	9	7	0	21	20	130.2	117	37	79	15	41%	.260	-31	1.18	3.53	12	7.48	11.1	3.7	2.5	2.4	-23.9	0.0	-1.2
2007	REA	AA	4	7	0	12	12	81.3	82	18	50	3	52%	.307	12	1.23	3.21	-5	4.94	11.0	2.5	3.3	0.7	5.5	0.0	1.7
2007	PHI	MLB	10	4	0	20	20	121.0	129	25	49	16	47%	.285	-3	1.27	3.87	8	4.21	9.1	1.7	3.6	1.1	26.7	3.2	3.4
2008	PHI	MLB	11	9	0	31	30	155.7	194	57	68	23	46%	.312	-16	1.61	5.49	10	6.11	10.8	2.7	3.4	1.3	-4.1	2.2	1.0

Historical Stats