Ryan Jorgensen

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	LOU	AAA	269	25	9	0	8	30	31	57	1	0	-3.1	.213	.315	.357	-.352	.179	.272	.306	.206	-18.3	70-C 0	-0.3
2007	LOU	AAA	279	29	16	0	2	26	21	52	1	0	-1.9	.237	.292	.325	-.464	.188	.238	.267	.173	-26.8	71-C -2	-1.5
2007	CIN	MLB	15	3	0	0	2	6	0	5	0	0	0.2	.200	.200	.600	-.079	.200	.200	.600	.252	0.3		0.0
2008	ROC	AAA	225	27	12	0	8	25	18	54	0	0	-0.4	.247	.314	.429	-.288	.203	.262	.361	.216	-10.6	60-C -2	-0.3

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:54 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	278	27	13	1	8	31	22	73	1	0	-1.1	.233	.298	.381	-.145	.235	.302	.399	.245	1.9	68-C 1	1.5
75^o	273	24	12	1	7	29	21	73	1	0	-1.1	.220	.284	.356	-.213	.222	.288	.373	.231	-2.5	67-C 1	1.0
60^o	266	21	11	0	6	26	20	72	1	0	-1.0	.205	.268	.326	-.293	.206	.272	.342	.214	-7.3	65-C 1	0.5
50^o	260	19	10	0	5	24	19	72	1	0	-0.9	.193	.256	.304	-.352	.195	.260	.319	.201	-10.8	64-C 1	0.1
40^o	256	17	9	0	5	23	18	72	1	0	-0.9	.185	.247	.288	-.395	.187	.251	.302	.190	-13.2	63-C 0	0.0
25^o	248	15	8	0	4	21	17	71	1	0	-0.8	.171	.232	.262	-.465	.173	.236	.274	.170	-16.9	61-C 0	-0.6
10^o	211	8	5	0	2	10	13	66	1	0	-0.6	.131	.188	.184	-.673	.132	.190	.192	.079	-24.5	53-C 0	-1.6
Weighted Mean	249	17	9	0	5	23	18	69	1	0	-0.9	.188	.250	.294	-.374	.189	.254	.308	.192	-12.3	62-C 1	0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
39%	50%	34%	33%	1.28

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 30)	249	17	9	0	5	23	18	69	1	0	-0.9	.188	.250	.294	-.374	.189	.254	.308	.192	-12.3	62-C 1	0.2
2010 (age 31)	259	17	9	0	5	24	18	73	1	0	-0.6	.181	.245	.288	-.390	.185	.251	.306	.188	-9.6	64-C 2	0.1
2011 (age 32)	233	15	8	0	4	22	17	65	1	0	-0.4	.184	.251	.287	-.378	.188	.257	.305	.192	-5.5	58-C 0	0.1
2012 (age 33)	155	9	5	0	3	13	12	43	0	0	-0.2	.184	.256	.290	-.364	.188	.263	.307	.195	-3.3	41-C -1	0.0
2013 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.204	.268	.321
vs RHP	.184	.244	.283
Split	+.020	+.024	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-9.6	1.0	0.2	$400,000	-11.6	0.3
2010	-10.9	2.0	0.1	$400,000	-8.3	1.3
2011	-9.1	0.0	0.1	$400,000	-4.7	0.3
2012	-5.6	-1.0	0.0	$400,000	-3.5	0.3
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.4	$300,000	0.0	2.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.231	.201	.170	.192
2010	.219	.189	.165	.188
2011	.221	.201	.156	.192
2012	.224	.207	.159	.195
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	33%	0%	39%
2010	51%	30%	21%
2011	69%	51%	17%
2012	83%	61%	17%
2013	92%	81%	14%
2014	95%	87%	10%
2015	96%	91%	9%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

64

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Danny Ardoin	2004	66		11	Joe Depastino	2003	52
2	B.J. Waszgis	2000	58		12	Bobby Hughes	2001	52
3	Randy Knorr	1999	58		13	Keith McDonald	2003	51
4	Blake Barthol	2003	57		14	Kevin Brown	2003	51
5	Mike Berger	1992	56		15	Mike Basso	1994	51
6	Ron Tingley	1989	56		16	Mark Strittmatter	1999	50
7	Creighton Gubanich	2002	55		17	Mike Rivera	2006	49
8	Brandon Harper	2006	54		18	Mike Hubbard	2001	49
9	Brandon Marsters	2005	53		19	Corky Miller	2006	49
10	A.J. Hinch	2004	53		20	Guillermo Rodriguez	2008	48

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