Stephen Holm

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	SJO	A+	263	44	13	0	15	30	24	59	0	0	0.6	.258	.341	.511	-.479	.161	.219	.293	.171	-26.6	49-C -8 7-3B -3	-2.8
2007	NRW	AA	305	35	14	0	9	28	42	39	3	1	-3.1	.272	.387	.433	-.320	.196	.284	.307	.209	-18.4	66-C -6	-1.2
2008	FRE	AAA	79	7	4	0	0	11	10	12	0	0	-0.2	.273	.367	.333	-.374	.206	.291	.250	.200	-5.6	20-C 0	-0.2
2008	SFN	MLB	98	10	9	0	1	6	10	16	0	1	-0.4	.262	.357	.405	.009	.262	.357	.429	.271	3.1	24-C -5	0.0

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:22 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	188	29	10	1	6	24	20	38	0	0	-0.6	.271	.354	.446	.051	.271	.354	.460	.279	9.7	48-C -2	1.4
75^o	169	20	8	0	4	19	16	35	0	0	-0.5	.242	.320	.388	-.108	.242	.320	.400	.249	2.4	44-C -3	0.6
60^o	161	17	8	0	4	17	14	34	0	0	-0.5	.231	.307	.366	-.170	.231	.306	.377	.237	0.0	42-C -3	0.3
50^o	150	14	7	0	3	15	13	32	0	0	-0.4	.217	.289	.337	-.247	.217	.289	.348	.220	-2.7	39-C -3	0.0
40^o	138	11	6	0	2	12	11	30	0	0	-0.4	.203	.271	.308	-.328	.203	.271	.317	.202	-5.1	37-C -3	-0.3
25^o	111	6	4	0	1	8	7	26	0	0	-0.3	.175	.236	.252	-.482	.175	.236	.260	.160	-8.1	31-C -3	-0.7
10^o	25	0	1	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	-0.1	.138	.186	.178	-.691	.138	.186	.184	.023	-3.0	11-C -2	-0.4
Weighted Mean	124	11	6	0	3	12	11	26	0	0	-0.4	.224	.298	.352	-.206	.224	.298	.362	.228	0.6	33-C -2	0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
47%	53%	35%	56%	2.13

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 29)	124	11	6	0	3	12	11	26	0	0	-0.4	.224	.298	.352	-.206	.224	.298	.362	.228	0.6	33-C -2	0.2
2010 (age 30)	157	15	7	0	3	15	14	35	0	0	-0.3	.217	.295	.331	-.261	.214	.290	.336	.220	-2.1	41-C -2	0.2
2011 (age 31)	106	9	5	0	2	10	10	21	0	0	-0.3	.232	.309	.355	-.194	.228	.305	.361	.235	0.0	29-C -3	0.2
2012 (age 32)	120	11	6	0	2	13	12	25	0	0	-0.2	.226	.310	.357	-.195	.222	.305	.363	.236	0.0	33-C -3	0.2
2013 (age 33)	172	19	7	0	4	17	16	36	0	0	-0.1	.229	.308	.355	-.199	.225	.304	.361	.234	-0.2	44-C -5	0.1
2014 (age 34)	133	12	6	0	3	15	12	30	0	0	-0.1	.226	.306	.356	-.203	.223	.302	.362	.233	-0.2	35-C -4	0.0
2015 (age 35)	108	8	5	0	2	12	10	25	0	0	-0.1	.217	.305	.326	-.248	.214	.301	.332	.225	-0.4	30-C -3	0.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.240	.316	.379
vs RHP	.220	.291	.338
Split	+.020	+.026	+.041
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-1.1	-2.0	0.2	$475,000	-2.2	1.6
2010	-2.5	-2.0	0.2	$400,000	-4.0	0.9
2011	-0.2	-3.0	0.2	$475,000	-2.6	0.8
2012	0.0	-3.0	0.2	$575,000	-1.8	0.5
2013	-0.5	-5.0	0.1	$525,000	-1.7	0.3
2014	-0.5	-4.0	0.0	$550,000	-1.5	0.5
2015	-1.3	-3.0	0.0	$600,000	-1.0	0.2
Peak			0.8	$675,000	0.0	4.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.249	.220	.160	.228
2010	.249	.225	.200	.220
2011	.264	.237	.190	.235
2012	.256	.239	.200	.236
2013	.264	.236	.202	.234
2014	.253	.213	.165	.233
2015	.252	.226	.112	.225

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	56%	0%	47%
2010	60%	23%	38%
2011	68%	35%	44%
2012	77%	51%	42%
2013	82%	65%	34%
2014	82%	64%	26%
2015	91%	75%	19%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

61

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Bill Plummer	1976	66		11	Dann Bilardello	1989	54
2	Duffy Dyer	1975	66		12	Chris Cannizzaro	1968	51
3	Doug Camilli	1966	65		13	Dave Ross	2006	50
4	Larry Haney	1972	62		14	Bob Natal	1995	50
5	John Boccabella	1971	59		15	Jeff Torborg	1971	49
6	A.J. Hinch	2004	57		16	Earl Averill	1961	49
7	Mike Ryan	1971	56		17	Ken Rudolph	1976	48
8	Tom Prince	1994	56		18	Jimmie Schaffer	1965	47
9	Chuck Brinkman	1974	55		19	Marc Hill	1981	47
10	Bob Barton	1971	55		20	Dave Van Gorder	1986	46

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