Shawn Hill

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Starter-4 Shawn Hill 115 19 4.10 1.33 121 31 12 67 6 6 0 16.6

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 10:14 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	12	7	0	27	27	168.0	158	42	101	14	53%	.272	13	1.19	3.08	3.48	3.45	8.3	2.0	4.9	0.7	45.4	5.8	5.9
75^o	10	7	0	25	25	152.0	151	40	91	14	53%	.282	11	1.26	3.58	3.92	4.00	8.8	2.1	4.8	0.8	31.5	4.3	4.5
60^o	8	7	0	23	23	138.0	144	38	82	14	53%	.290	8	1.32	4.04	4.31	4.48	9.2	2.2	4.8	0.9	20.9	3.1	3.3
50^o	8	8	0	22	22	129.3	139	37	76	14	53%	.296	7	1.36	4.32	4.57	4.79	9.5	2.3	4.8	1.0	15.0	2.5	2.7
40^o	7	8	0	21	21	121.3	135	35	71	14	53%	.301	5	1.40	4.60	4.81	5.09	9.8	2.4	4.7	1.0	10.0	1.9	2.2
25^o	5	7	0	27	17	105.3	123	32	61	14	52%	.311	-3	1.48	5.17	5.31	5.69	10.3	2.5	4.7	1.1	1.2	0.8	1.2
10^o	3	6	0	25	11	73.0	95	25	41	11	52%	.331	-12	1.64	6.37	6.36	6.97	11.5	2.8	4.6	1.3	-9.9	-0.5	-0.2
Weighted Mean	7	7	0	22	22	124.7	131	35	74	13	53%	.292	8	1.33	4.10	4.37	4.56	9.3	2.3	4.8	0.9	18.0	2.7	2.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
7%	25%	42%	24%	0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 27)	7	7	0	22	22	124.7	131	35	74	13	53%	.292	8	1.33	4.10	4.37	4.56	9.3	2.3	4.8	0.9	18.0	2.7	2.8
2009 (age 28)	7	7	0	28	19	122.0	129	35	72	13	52%	.293	2	1.34	4.12	4.43	4.57	9.4	2.3	4.8	0.9	15.3	2.5	2.4
2010 (age 29)	8	8	1	34	19	133.7	141	37	77	14	51%	.292	1	1.33	3.97	4.34	4.39	9.3	2.2	4.7	0.9	15.7	2.9	2.4
2011 (age 30)	7	7	1	32	17	118.3	124	32	66	12	53%	.289	-1	1.32	3.96	4.29	4.40	9.3	2.2	4.5	0.9	13.1	2.6	2.0
2012 (age 31)	7	7	1	34	16	118.0	124	31	70	13	52%	.290	0	1.30	3.98	4.27	4.41	9.2	2.1	4.8	0.9	11.0	2.5	1.7
2013 (age 32)	4	5	1	29	9	77.3	81	20	46	8	52%	.292	-2	1.31	4.12	4.34	4.57	9.3	2.1	4.8	0.9	8.1	1.4	1.3
2014 (age 33)	3	3	1	20	6	52.0	54	13	32	5	52%	.287	-1	1.28	4.01	4.15	4.46	9.1	2.1	4.9	0.9	7.6	1.0	1.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.279	.359	.434
vs RHB	.247	.303	.359
Split	+.032	+.056	+.074
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	2.8	$5,675,000	14.8	17.4
2009	2.4	$5,075,000	12.6	15.2
2010	2.4	$5,475,000	13.2	16.1
2011	2.0	$4,750,000	11.0	12.6
2012	1.7	$4,200,000	9.3	12.4
2013	1.3	$3,200,000	6.6	7.2
2014	1.2	$3,175,000	6.3	7.8
Peak	12.4	$22,125,000	60.9	80.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.00	4.79	5.69	4.56
2009	3.86	4.82	5.97	4.57
2010	3.75	4.54	6.24	4.39
2011	3.63	4.56	5.51	4.40
2012	3.90	5.24	7.11	4.41
2013	4.00	4.93	5.85	4.57
2014	3.67	4.96	6.35	4.46

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	24%	0%	7%
2009	37%	9%	1%
2010	50%	22%	12%
2011	54%	33%	3%
2012	60%	43%	6%
2013	73%	52%	5%
2014	74%	53%	6%

59

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Clay Parker	1990	71		11	Mike Thurman	2000	45
2	Steve Ontiveros	1988	52		12	Don Carrithers	1976	45
3	Bobby Locke	1961	50		13	Jim McGlothlin	1970	45
4	Dennis Lamp	1979	49		14	Mike Grace	1997	44
5	Larry Jackson	1958	48		15	Wayne Garland	1977	44
6	Tom Hausman	1980	47		16	Bob Sadowski	1965	43
7	Randy O'Neal	1987	47		17	Roger Nelson	1971	43
8	Zach Day	2005	47		18	Runelvys Hernandez	2005	43
9	Tomokazu Ohka	2003	46		19	John Butcher	1984	41
10	Brian Moehler	1999	46		20	Ray Bare	1976	41

Player Comments

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2007

Having missed 2005 after TJ surgery on his elbow, Hill`s 2006 was supposed to be a simple season devoted to recovering his command. Instead, he got pressed into action as the Nats` pitching staff started going to pieces. He`s something of a finesse guy, relying on a sinker and hoping he can fool the occasional lefty with a curve or change, but it doesn`t happen as often as he might like. Given the team`s general desperation for pitching of any type, Hill has a good shot at the back of the rotation.

2005

A good control pitcher with lackluster strikeout rates, Hill's upside figured to be limited. Tommy John surgery will cost him a year of development time, meaning we may not see him get established as a big league starter until 2007. The Expos have several back-of-the-rotation candidates among their prospects, but few potential aces. Although�

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	HAR	2A	3	3	0	10	10	50.0	46	5	32	2	63%	.275	0	1.02	2.70	3.85	4.69	8.8	1.5	3.4	0.6	4.9		1.2
2006	NWO	3A	0	0	0	1	1	5.1	6	2	2	0	84%	.316	-14	1.57	3.53	5.97	3.60	10.8	3.6	1.8	0.0	1.1		0.1
2006	WAS	MJ	1	3	0	6	6	36.7	43	12	16	2	51%	.323	1	1.50	4.66	4.66	4.71	10.4	2.5	3.7	0.5	4.3	0.9	0.8
2007	POT	1C	0	0	0	2	2	7.0	3	1	4	0	70%	.150	-7	0.57	1.29	3.15	3.86	3.9	2.6	2.6	0.0	1.4		0.1
2007	COH	3A	0	1	0	1	1	5.0	4	0	0	0	72%	.222	-7	0.80	1.80	2.63	1.93	7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9		0.4
2007	WAS	MJ	4	5	0	16	16	97.3	86	25	65	9	56%	.264	17	1.14	3.42	3.39	3.82	7.8	2.0	5.7	0.7	20.8	3.2	2.9

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats