Koyie Hill

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 11:41 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	246	33	15	1	7	33	23	47	4	1	-0.4	.282	.350	.460	.050	.276	.345	.451	.273	11.3	61-C 0	2.5
75^o	231	26	13	1	5	28	20	44	3	1	-0.3	.259	.324	.407	-.082	.253	.319	.399	.248	3.6	57-C -1	1.7
60^o	221	22	11	1	5	25	18	43	2	1	-0.3	.246	.309	.378	-.157	.241	.305	.371	.234	-0.3	55-C -1	1.3
50^o	213	19	10	0	4	23	17	41	2	1	-0.3	.236	.297	.353	-.218	.230	.292	.347	.221	-3.3	53-C -1	1.0
40^o	206	17	10	0	3	21	15	40	2	1	-0.3	.227	.287	.334	-.267	.222	.283	.328	.210	-5.5	52-C -2	0.7
25^o	198	15	9	0	3	18	14	39	2	1	-0.3	.218	.277	.313	-.319	.214	.272	.307	.198	-7.6	50-C -2	0.5
10^o	171	9	6	0	1	12	11	34	1	1	-0.2	.192	.245	.253	-.470	.188	.242	.248	.155	-12.5	44-C -3	-0.2
Weighted Mean	212	20	11	1	4	22	17	41	2	1	-0.3	.240	.303	.365	-.190	.235	.298	.358	.226	-0.3	53-C 0	1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
43%	58%	23%	39%	0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 29)	212	20	11	1	4	22	17	41	2	1	-0.3	.240	.303	.365	-.190	.235	.298	.358	.226	-0.3	53-C 0	1.6
2009 (age 30)	201	17	9	0	4	21	15	39	2	1	-0.2	.235	.296	.355	-.218	.227	.287	.342	.220	-2.6	51-C 0	0.9
2010 (age 31)	223	21	12	0	5	23	18	46	2	1	-0.2	.229	.295	.360	-.216	.221	.286	.347	.221	-2.0	56-C -3	0.5
2011 (age 32)	174	15	8	0	3	19	16	32	2	0	-0.1	.233	.305	.357	-.201	.224	.295	.344	.225	-1.0	45-C -1	0.5
2012 (age 33)	236	22	11	0	4	22	19	45	3	1	-0.1	.230	.296	.346	-.233	.222	.287	.333	.217	-1.5	59-C -1	0.4
2013 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.249	.301	.367
vs RHP	.238	.303	.363
Split	+.012	-.002	+.004
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.0	1.7	1.6	$1,800,000	-0.4	2.2
2009	0.0	1.0	0.9	$1,050,000	-2.3	1.8
2010	0.0	0.6	0.5	$725,000	-3.8	0.7
2011	0.0	0.5	0.5	$725,000	-1.4	0.5
2012	0.0	0.4	0.4	$625,000	-1.8	0.2
2013	0.1	0.3	0.4	$675,000	-0.3	0.8
2014	0.0	0.3	0.3	$625,000	-1.0	0.5
Peak			4.4	$2,850,000	0.0	6.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.248	.221	.198	.226
2009	.259	.223	.185	.220
2010	.248	.223	.197	.221
2011	.248	.228	.198	.225
2012	.245	.230	.194	.217
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	39%	0%	43%
2009	55%	18%	34%
2010	64%	36%	31%
2011	79%	52%	30%
2012	79%	63%	26%
2013	84%	70%	26%
2014	88%	75%	20%

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Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Alan Ashby	1992	40		11	Charlie Lau	2003	33
2	Lance Rice	1979	36		12	Ken Rudolph	1971	33
3	Dave Toth	1981	36		13	Mike Mahoney	1982	33
4	Javier Valentin	1970	36		14	Dave Van Gorder	1960	33
5	Russ Gibson	1973	35		15	Jeff Torborg	2007	32
6	Matt Walbeck	1992	35		16	Dave Skaggs	1975	32
7	Eric Helfand	1975	34		17	Doug Camilli	1969	32
8	Brook Fordyce	1975	34		18	Terry Humphrey	2000	31
9	Joe Siddall	1957	34		19	Chad Kreuter	1979	30
10	Doug Davis	1998	33		20	Ed Fulton	2005	30

Player Comments

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2006

He has yet to translate his acceptable minor league walk rate into something more like a career, and it doesn`t look like he will. He put up okay numbers by admittedly pathetic D-Back catcher standards while regrouping in Triple-A after an abysmal start. If he was unable to push Chris Snyder`s .202/.297/.301 line out of the everyday lineup, he`s no longer a prospect.

2005

Did he just pull it all together? Solid defensive catcher, shows occasional flashes of all the tools in previous years; average one year, power the next, plate discipline, then has a pretty good consolidation season at Las Vegas, and gets a taste of the bigs. With Hammock's knee a concern, he'll compete with the more talented but less proven Chris Snyder for the #1 job.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	TUC	3A	193	22	9	1	5	26	23	37	3	0	0.1	.244	.337	.399	-.150	.205	.290	.333	.222	-5.8	40-C 0	0.7
2005	ARI	MJ	91	6	5	0	0	6	11	27	0	1	-1.0	.218	.308	.282	-.252	.208	.300	.260	.204	-2.8	24-C -1	0.3
2006	COH	3A	76	4	2	0	1	5	5	17	0	0	-0.2	.143	.197	.214	-.482	.171	.224	.243	.152	-8.1	14-C -2	-0.4
2007	IOW	3A	162	22	16	0	2	24	11	23	1	1	2.2	.322	.364	.470	.129	.287	.331	.413	.258	5.7	28-C 2	1.4
2007	CHN	MJ	105	7	4	0	2	12	8	18	0	0	-0.6	.161	.231	.269	-.465	.161	.238	.258	.174	-7.4	26-C 2	0.3

Historical Stats