<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Ramon Hernandez
Cincinnati Reds [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 33
6'
235 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Reds Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 4 Ramon Hernandez 5 11 .258 10 3 14 0 .329 .394 1.3
C 5 Ramon Hernandez 40 96 .258 10 3 14 0 .329 .394 1.3
2   2009 Total 45 107 .258 10 3 14 0 .329 .394 1.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 BAL MLB 560 66 29 2 23 91 43 79 1 0 -0.7 .275 .343 .479 .032 .265 .338 .470 .276 28.9 125-C 2 3.8
2007 BAL MLB 409 40 18 0 9 62 36 59 1 3 -2.6 .258 .333 .382 -.101 .253 .330 .386 .249 6.3 96-C -6 0.6
2008 BAL MLB 507 49 22 1 15 65 32 62 0 0 -3.5 .257 .308 .406 -.104 .254 .307 .414 .249 8.3 118-C -8 0.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:29 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 421 58 22 1 15 56 36 60 0 1 -2.3 .289 .355 .474 .081 .288 .353 .474 .281 24.7 100-C -5 3.1
75o 392 48 19 1 12 49 33 57 0 1 -2.1 .274 .341 .438 -.001 .273 .339 .439 .267 15.5 94-C -5 2.3
60o 371 41 18 1 10 44 31 54 0 1 -2.0 .265 .331 .414 -.058 .264 .329 .414 .256 9.8 89-C -4 1.7
50o 364 39 17 1 10 42 30 53 0 1 -2.0 .261 .328 .406 -.076 .261 .326 .406 .253 8.1 88-C -4 1.6
40o 352 36 16 1 9 40 29 51 0 1 -1.9 .256 .323 .392 -.108 .255 .321 .393 .247 5.2 85-C -4 1.3
25o 307 25 13 0 5 31 25 46 0 1 -1.6 .236 .304 .344 -.218 .236 .302 .344 .224 -3.4 75-C -3 0.4
10o 228 12 8 0 2 18 18 35 0 0 -1.1 .207 .275 .271 -.382 .206 .273 .272 .185 -11.2 57-C -2 -0.5
Weighted Mean 365 40 17 1 10 44 31 53 0 1 -1.8 .263 .330 .410 -.048 .262 .328 .411 .254 11.5 88-C -3 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

42%

30%

29%

0.97

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 33) 365 40 17 1 10 44 31 53 0 1 -1.8 .263 .330 .410 -.048 .262 .328 .411 .254 11.5 88-C -3 1.7
2010 (age 34) 302 30 15 1 8 35 25 44 0 0 -1.4 .264 .331 .408 -.085 .259 .324 .403 .254 6.5 74-C -4 1.3
2011 (age 35) 261 24 12 1 7 30 21 41 0 0 -1.0 .256 .322 .400 -.116 .251 .316 .395 .248 3.5 64-C -3 0.8
2012 (age 36) 182 14 9 0 4 18 16 29 0 0 -0.6 .251 .322 .380 -.146 .247 .315 .376 .242 1.4 47-C -3 0.4
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .276 .348 .435
vs RHP .259 .322 .393
Split +.017 +.026 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 6.9 -3.0 1.7 $2,225,000 5.7 10.2
2010 5.8 -4.0 1.3 $1,575,000 1.1 4.1
2011 3.4 -3.0 0.8 $1,225,000 -0.7 2.0
2012 1.3 -3.0 0.4 $750,000 -2.2 0.7
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 4.6 $4,175,000 3.1 18.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .267 .253 .224 .254
2010 .271 .250 .226 .254
2011 .265 .248 .218 .248
2012 .262 .247 .222 .242
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 29% 0% 17%
2010 44% 12% 17%
2011 61% 26% 9%
2012 80% 44% 10%
2013 87% 72% 8%
2014 93% 77% 5%
2015 96% 81% 6%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

50

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Javy Lopez 2003 63 11 Greg Olson 1993 35
2 Don Leppert 1964 46 12 Mike Macfarlane 1997 35
3 Joe Oliver 1998 43 13 Jerry Grote 1975 35
4 Bengie Molina 2007 43 14 Johnny Edwards 1971 35
5 Sandy Alomar 1999 40 15 Del Crandall 1963 35
6 Damian Miller 2002 37 16 Jim Sundberg 1984 34
7 Brad Ausmus 2002 37 17 Matt Batts 1954 34
8 Terry Kennedy 1989 37 18 Tom Pagnozzi 1995 34
9 Terry Steinbach 1995 36 19 Mike Heath 1988 33
10 Dave Valle 1993 36 20 Andy Etchebarren 1976 33

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Last year we mentioned that reaching a career high in at-bats, as Hernandez did in 2006, was a bad thing for a 30-year-old catcher. Hernandez backed us up in 2007 by making two trips to the DL and suffering a drop-off in virtually every facet of his game. All that may have been the fault of the strained oblique he suffered in the spring, but his 2006 workload surely didn't help matters. Hernandez was the subject of trade talks during the season, and, despite not having any major league-ready in-house alternatives, the O's would be smart to parlay any Hernandez hot streak into a deal.

2007

There was considerable moaning about Hernandez`s contract last year, but he made Year One of his four-year deal look awfully good, setting or matching career highs in at-bats, hits, doubles, homers, RBIs, and stolen bases (this was one of the years in which he stole one). That said, setting a career high in at-bats is not a good indicator of future value when you`re talking about a 30-year-old catcher. He`s been a very steady player for the last four years, so he gets the benefit of the doubt for now.

2005

Keeps getting better. Hernandez hiked his walk rate and power numbers slightly from an already solid 2003; throw in the adjustment from a good pitcher's park in Oakland to a great one in San Diego and the gains look even more impressive. The dramatic spike in his contact rate points to further gains in his future. He's still an above-average defensive catcher, and at $4.1 million, the Padres have themselves a relative bargain. Here comes a career year.

2003

.241/.315/.387 in Oakland at age 24 is promising. So what happened? Hernandez just flat out hasn’t developed, and really didn’t look good at the plate all year. He looks his best when he’s hitting balls hard to RF and RCF, usually pitches up and away. Anything else, he looks unbelievably slow with the bat. His batting eye got marginally better, but not by enough to be anything more than noise in the data. Other than that, he’s been pretty much treading water for two years. With Beane’s theft of Mark Johnson from the White Sox, he’s going to have to do something with the bat in order to keep the lion’s share of the playing time, despite his solid defense.

2002

This is a very underrated ballplayer. Hernandez is a good defensive catcher who handles the pitching staff well and is undervalued as a hitter, thanks in large part to the cavernous outfield in Oakland. Hernandez is a very similar player to former A's backstop Terry Steinbach, a league-average hitter with some durability and strong defense. He got beat up throughout the season, as catchers are prone to do, and still finished strong: .291/.339/.522 after the All-Star break.

2001

The organization’s Venezuelan scouting effort doesn’t get as much attention as its commitment to the Dominican Republic, but this year it cranked out the team’s starting catcher. Spending most of the season in the ninth slot, Hernandez had a solid campaign, consistent with his career and age. Don’t be surprised if he outhits that projection. His defense is rough, but so was Terry Steinbach's in his early years.

2000

Everything came together in 1999 for Hernandez. He came to camp in shape for the first time, impressing the organization. Although he wasn't having his best year at the plate, he'd worked hard while Hinch had flopped. After his call-up, he gave the A's some desperately needed right-handed power. His defense still needs work; he has problems sitting still and making a good target for his pitchers. He's always been injury-prone, so while he should win the job outright, the A's will need to carry a good caddy.

1998

A marvelous catching prospect with a good arm, an astronomical batting average and a gigantic A.J. Hinch in front of him in the mind of the A’s front office. He will be a very good major league player, but the opportunity for him to become a star was damaged by his failure to adapt to Double-A last year.

1997

One of the reasons the A’s probably aren’t too worried about how their numerous young catchers in the upper levels of the system turn out is Hernandez. He won the batting title in his rookie league in ’95, and was rated the A’s sixth-best prospect entering the ’96 season. He’s shown a lot of patience at the plate for a young player. He’s potentially a very good catcher, but needs work; for that reason, the A’s will be bringing him along slowly as the upper level prospects sort themselves out.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.