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Michel Hernandez
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 30
6'
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rays Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 9 Michel Hernandez 5 10 .233 1 0 1 0 .281 .310 -0.3
1   2009 Total 5 10 .233 1 0 1 0 .281 .310 -0.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 MEM AAA 321 24 10 1 2 28 27 29 3 1 -0.3 .274 .336 .337 -.327 .229 .285 .288 .204 -18.9 65-C -1 -0.9
2007 DUR AAA 189 22 4 0 4 19 16 13 0 1 0.0 .276 .342 .371 -.319 .218 .280 .305 .202 -11.0 47-C 9 0.8
2008 IND AAA 271 29 14 2 3 17 17 35 0 2 -1.5 .266 .317 .373 -.330 .220 .267 .315 .198 -16.9 62-C -7 -1.5
2008 TBA MLB 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0.0 .200 .200 .200 -.866 .133 .133 .133 .000 -1.6 -0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:43 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 290 30 14 1 3 26 20 42 0 1 -1.0 .260 .314 .359 -.125 .264 .318 .378 .244 2.8 71-C 0 1.4
75o 274 23 11 1 3 23 18 40 0 1 -0.9 .234 .287 .316 -.252 .238 .291 .333 .217 -5.5 67-C 0 0.5
60o 264 19 10 1 2 21 17 39 0 0 -0.8 .218 .271 .290 -.328 .222 .274 .305 .200 -9.9 65-C 0 0.1
50o 260 18 9 0 2 20 16 39 0 0 -0.8 .213 .265 .281 -.355 .216 .268 .296 .193 -11.5 64-C 0 0.0
40o 255 17 9 0 2 20 16 38 0 0 -0.7 .205 .258 .270 -.389 .209 .261 .283 .184 -13.2 63-C 0 -0.3
25o 239 13 7 0 1 17 14 37 0 0 -0.6 .186 .237 .238 -.481 .189 .240 .250 .157 -17.6 59-C 0 -0.8
10o 183 6 3 0 0 9 10 30 0 0 -0.4 .141 .189 .164 -.692 .143 .192 .173 .064 -22.5 47-C -1 -1.5
Weighted Mean 235 15 8 0 2 19 14 35 0 0 -0.7 .209 .261 .275 -.370 .212 .264 .289 .188 -12.0 58-C -1 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

31%

43%

36%

31%

1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 30) 235 15 8 0 2 19 14 35 0 0 -0.7 .209 .261 .275 -.370 .212 .264 .289 .188 -12.0 58-C -1 0.0
2010 (age 31) 224 14 7 0 2 18 14 34 0 0 -0.5 .209 .260 .276 -.361 .215 .266 .294 .189 -8.7 56-C -1 -0.2
2011 (age 32) 238 15 7 0 2 19 15 37 0 0 -0.4 .206 .258 .267 -.378 .212 .265 .284 .184 -6.9 59-C -2 -0.2
2012 (age 33) 232 14 8 1 2 19 13 36 0 0 -0.2 .199 .249 .267 -.400 .205 .256 .284 .178 -5.8 58-C -2 -0.2
2013 (age 34) 180 11 7 0 2 17 12 28 0 0 -0.2 .220 .276 .306 -.283 .226 .283 .325 .209 -1.9 46-C -3 0.0
2014 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .226 .283 .306
vs RHP .204 .253 .263
Split +.022 +.029 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -10.9 -1.0 0.0 $400,000 -11.0 0.5
2010 -10.2 -1.0 -0.2 $400,000 -8.5 0.4
2011 -11.7 -2.0 -0.2 $400,000 -7.2 0.0
2012 -12.6 -2.0 -0.2 $400,000 -5.9 0.0
2013 -5.1 -3.0 0.0 $400,000 -2.2 0.2
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .217 .193 .157 .188
2010 .219 .196 .142 .189
2011 .209 .191 .145 .184
2012 .228 .188 .116 .178
2013 .228 .207 .162 .209
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 31% 0% 31%
2010 49% 18% 31%
2011 64% 39% 21%
2012 75% 56% 18%
2013 83% 66% 18%
2014 92% 76% 15%
2015 96% 89% 12%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

54

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Juan Espino 1987 59 11 Randy Gomez 1987 39
2 Wil Nieves 2008 54 12 Mike Mahoney 2003 38
3 Raul Chavez 2004 52 13 A.J. Hinch 2005 38
4 Mike Stefanski 2000 48 14 Yamid Haad 2008 37
5 Barry Lyons 1991 43 15 Jason Phillips 2007 37
6 Mike Knapp 1995 42 16 Bobby Ramos 1986 37
7 Jose Molina 2006 42 17 Fausto Tejero 1999 37
8 Danny Sheaffer 1992 42 18 Gary Bennett 2003 36
9 Paul Phillips 2008 40 19 Dusty Wathan 2004 36
10 Joe Depastino 2004 40 20 Jerry McNertney 1967 36

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Michel Hernandez is definitely in the right organization; in St. Louis, catch-and-throw guys are the rule, not the avoidable exception. He`s in line for third catcher duties and the emergency call-ups that involves.

2005

A catch-and-throw prospect in the Yankees system, Hernandez was claimed off waivers, and became a catch-and-throw prospect in the Phillies system. Hernandez can take an occasional walk, but otherwise has little to recommend him; his arm is good but not outstanding. The Phillies closed the circle by non-tendering him, so he'll return to Triple-A somewhere and hope for someone to get hurt.


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