Lee Gronkiewicz

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:30 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	5	3	2	31	5	66.3	62	18	51	6	44%	.282	9	1.21	2.95	3.29	2.90	8.0	2.3	6.3	0.8	21.5	2.2	2.8
75^o	4	3	2	30	5	64.0	63	18	48	7	44%	.288	7	1.26	3.39	3.58	3.32	8.3	2.4	6.2	0.9	17.4	1.8	2.3
60^o	4	3	1	29	5	62.0	63	18	46	7	44%	.292	6	1.30	3.75	3.82	3.67	8.5	2.4	6.2	1.0	14.2	1.5	2.0
50^o	4	3	1	29	5	61.3	63	18	45	7	44%	.295	5	1.32	3.93	3.94	3.84	8.6	2.5	6.1	1.0	12.7	1.3	1.8
40^o	4	3	1	28	5	60.0	63	18	44	7	44%	.298	3	1.35	4.16	4.10	4.07	8.8	2.5	6.1	1.1	10.8	1.2	1.6
25^o	3	3	1	27	5	57.3	62	18	42	8	43%	.304	1	1.40	4.70	4.46	4.58	9.2	2.6	6.0	1.2	6.6	0.8	1.2
10^o	3	3	1	25	4	52.3	61	18	37	8	43%	.316	-4	1.51	5.70	5.13	5.53	9.9	2.8	5.9	1.4	-0.1	0.1	0.5
Weighted Mean	4	3	1	29	5	61.0	63	18	45	7	44%	.296	4	1.33	4.04	4.00	3.95	8.7	2.5	6.1	1.0	11.6	1.3	1.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
13%	46%	21%	18%	0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 29)	4	3	1	29	5	61.0	63	18	45	7	44%	.296	4	1.33	4.04	4.00	3.95	8.7	2.5	6.1	1.0	11.6	1.3	1.8
2009 (age 30)	4	3	1	29	5	61.0	65	18	44	8	44%	.298	1	1.35	4.31	4.17	4.21	9.0	2.4	5.9	1.1	7.7	1.1	1.3
2010 (age 31)	3	3	1	24	4	50.7	54	15	37	6	42%	.301	2	1.35	3.96	4.07	3.85	8.9	2.4	6.0	1.1	7.8	1.1	1.2
2011 (age 32)	3	3	1	27	4	56.0	58	16	40	7	45%	.297	2	1.33	4.10	4.04	4.01	8.8	2.4	5.9	1.0	5.0	1.1	0.8
2012 (age 33)	3	3	1	27	4	55.7	60	15	39	6	44%	.304	2	1.35	4.05	4.05	3.96	9.1	2.3	5.8	1.0	3.9	1.1	0.6
2013 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.247	.336	.395
vs RHB	.241	.299	.369
Split	+.006	+.037	+.027
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.8	$3,700,000	11.7	9.1
2009	1.3	$2,675,000	7.8	7.3
2010	1.2	$2,725,000	7.8	7.0
2011	0.8	$1,900,000	5.0	3.8
2012	0.6	$1,625,000	4.0	2.6
2013	0.3	$1,050,000	2.2	1.6
2014	0.2	$750,000	1.1	0.7
Peak	6.0	$9,950,000	36.3	31.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.32	3.84	4.58	3.95
2009	3.13	4.09	5.02	4.21
2010	3.10	4.07	5.63	3.85
2011	3.38	3.92	5.07	4.01
2012	3.50	4.10	5.01	3.96
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	18%	0%	13%
2009	33%	18%	13%
2010	50%	32%	15%
2011	64%	47%	7%
2012	72%	61%	6%
2013	86%	74%	6%
2014	89%	81%	4%

63

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Brian Holton	1989	56		11	Nelson Cruz	2002	51
2	Julio Navarro	1965	55		12	Bobby Chouinard	2002	50
3	Tim Crews	1991	53		13	T.J. Mathews	1999	49
4	Will Cunnane	2004	53		14	Claude Raymond	1967	49
5	Tom Gorman	1954	53		15	Dave Veres	1996	49
6	Gary Buckels	1995	53		16	Luis Aloma	1953	48
7	Mike Perez	1994	53		17	Scott Proctor	2006	48
8	Cliff Politte	2004	52		18	Gene Nelson	1990	47
9	Mel Rojas	1996	51		19	David Riske	2006	46
10	Dan Miceli	2000	51		20	Roy Face	1958	46

Player Comments

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2006

After going pro as an undrafted free agent, Toronto acquired Gronkiewicz in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft last year. Consider this the benefit of the Jays giving `short` righthanders the benefit of the doubt. The only thing he has going against him is his age, but with all the solid bullpen options floating around the system that may be enough to keep him down in Syracuse.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	NHP	2A	2	0	24	38	0	38.3	24	10	45	2	50%	.253	5	0.89	1.41	3.65	2.86	6.7	3.4	7.0	0.8	10.6		2.9
2005	SYR	3A	0	1	6	28	0	28.3	21	13	26	3	49%	.247	-7	1.20	2.23	4.09	3.42	6.8	5.1	6.2	1.0	6.4		1.1
2006	SYR	3A	2	3	17	41	0	44.1	47	8	33	4	44%	.316	-11	1.25	3.27	5.16	4.50	10.3	2.1	4.7	1.3	5.1		1.9
2007	NHP	2A	3	2	11	24	0	30.0	31	4	37	3	50%	.394	10	1.17	1.80	5.76	3.29	10.9	2.0	8.2	1.6	7.0		2.2
2007	SYR	3A	3	1	2	23	1	44.7	38	6	46	4	41%	.272	8	0.98	2.82	3.61	4.17	7.5	1.4	6.6	1.2	7.2		1.4
2007	TOR	MJ	0	0	0	1	0	4.0	2	2	2	1	55%	.100	-11	1.00	2.25	3.63	2.45	4.9	4.9	4.9	2.5	1.7	0.0	0.1

Historical Stats