<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Jesus Flores
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 24
6' 1"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Jesus Flores 5 11 .261 1 0 2 0 .321 .428 0.2
1   2009 Total 5 11 .261 1 0 2 0 .321 .428 0.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SLU A+ 480 66 32 0 21 70 28 127 2 0 -1.2 .266 .335 .487 -.134 .233 .284 .433 .244 -2.2 102-C 5 1.9
2007 WAS MLB 197 21 9 0 4 25 14 48 0 1 -0.4 .244 .310 .361 -.149 .250 .318 .367 .238 1.2 44-C 2 0.4
2008 COH AAA 69 8 3 0 1 7 8 20 0 0 -0.5 .153 .275 .254 -.476 .150 .261 .233 .172 -7.1 15-C -3 -0.7
2008 WAS MLB 324 23 18 1 8 59 15 78 0 1 -2.9 .256 .296 .402 -.126 .257 .296 .410 .243 2.8 76-C -6 0.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:15 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 404 57 25 1 18 59 32 87 1 1 -1.1 .281 .346 .505 .142 .285 .348 .527 .292 29.7 96-C 1 4.2
75o 370 45 21 1 14 51 28 82 1 1 -0.9 .264 .328 .462 .039 .267 .331 .483 .274 18.3 89-C 0 3.1
60o 341 36 18 1 12 43 25 77 1 1 -0.9 .250 .314 .427 -.046 .253 .316 .446 .259 10.0 82-C 0 2.2
50o 322 31 16 1 10 39 23 74 1 1 -0.8 .241 .305 .405 -.098 .245 .307 .423 .249 5.6 78-C 0 1.7
40o 314 29 15 1 10 37 23 72 1 1 -0.8 .238 .301 .396 -.120 .241 .304 .414 .245 3.8 76-C 0 1.5
25o 288 23 13 1 8 32 20 68 1 1 -0.7 .226 .289 .368 -.188 .230 .292 .384 .231 -1.1 70-C -1 0.9
10o 248 17 10 0 5 24 17 60 1 1 -0.6 .211 .273 .328 -.282 .214 .275 .343 .211 -6.5 61-C -1 0.2
Weighted Mean 314 32 17 1 11 41 23 71 1 1 -0.8 .252 .316 .431 -.053 .255 .318 .451 .260 13.4 76-C 0 2.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

46%

70%

14%

30%

0.94

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 24) 314 32 17 1 11 41 23 71 1 1 -0.8 .252 .316 .431 -.053 .255 .318 .451 .260 13.4 76-C 0 2.2
2010 (age 25) 337 38 18 1 12 48 26 72 1 0 -0.8 .259 .325 .448 -.010 .258 .322 .462 .269 14.4 81-C -1 2.7
2011 (age 26) 397 50 22 1 15 57 33 83 1 1 -0.8 .263 .331 .458 .019 .262 .329 .473 .274 17.6 95-C 0 3.1
2012 (age 27) 400 51 22 1 16 58 34 84 1 1 -0.7 .260 .330 .459 .015 .260 .328 .473 .274 16.8 95-C -3 2.8
2013 (age 28) 324 37 18 1 13 48 27 66 1 0 -0.6 .259 .326 .458 .006 .258 .324 .472 .272 13.7 78-C -3 2.2
2014 (age 29) 381 47 21 1 15 58 33 80 1 0 -0.5 .261 .329 .461 .018 .261 .327 .476 .274 14.7 91-C -3 2.4
2015 (age 30) 359 42 19 1 14 54 29 72 1 0 -0.5 .257 .323 .446 -.017 .256 .321 .460 .267 11.0 86-C -4 1.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .267 .335 .456
vs RHP .247 .307 .414
Split +.021 +.028 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 8.3 0.0 2.2 $3,475,000 11.7 15.3
2010 12.3 -1.0 2.7 $4,275,000 12.4 19.3
2011 16.8 0.0 3.1 $5,825,000 16.1 24.4
2012 16.8 -3.0 2.8 $5,450,000 13.7 21.7
2013 12.9 -3.0 2.2 $4,500,000 10.4 17.1
2014 16.1 -3.0 2.4 $5,225,000 11.5 17.2
2015 12.5 -4.0 1.9 $4,125,000 7.6 11.8
Peak 15.4 $21,225,000 75.8 115.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .274 .249 .231 .260
2010 .288 .266 .237 .269
2011 .288 .264 .245 .274
2012 .292 .272 .239 .274
2013 .283 .260 .238 .272
2014 .295 .265 .218 .274
2015 .291 .259 .228 .267


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 30% 0% 46%
2010 30% 4% 58%
2011 33% 8% 62%
2012 32% 13% 57%
2013 43% 15% 52%
2014 44% 20% 54%
2015 45% 26% 45%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

49

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Dann Bilardello 1984 52 11 Todd Hundley 1994 34
2 Randy Hundley 1967 49 12 Tim Wallach 1982 33
3 Jeff Torborg 1966 43 13 Rick Wilkins 1992 32
4 Dick Brown 1959 42 14 Del Crandall 1954 32
5 Barry Foote 1976 42 15 George Mitterwald 1970 32
6 Andy Etchebarren 1968 39 16 John Buck 2005 32
7 Tony Perez 1967 37 17 Mike Sweeney 1998 32
8 A.J. Hinch 1999 37 18 Les Moss 1950 31
9 Tim Laudner 1983 36 19 Miguel Montero 2008 31
10 Mike Fitzgerald 1985 35 20 Joe Azcue 1964 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

For all of the talk that the Rule 5 draft isn't yielding the same sort of goodies that it used to, there are lovely counter-examples like Flores. The Nats should be able to look forward to reaping the benefits of his fluidity as a receiver and his potent throwing arm for years to come. He already pulls the ball with some power, so he should be a good match for the new park's slightly shallower power alleys. If he isn't sharing the playing time behind the plate with Paul Lo Duca, a return to the minors for a couple of months of full-time play would probably help him start hitting right-handers with more authority. It's within his power to push the veteran to the bench before the end of the season and get named to an All-Star team within the next four.

2007

The Mets ended the season with few position-playing prospects, but after the 2006 Rule 5 draft, they had one less. The Nationals grabbed Flores, who tied for the Florida State League lead in home runs last year. The most likely outcomes are that Flores gets returned to the Mets or the Nats keep him but stunt his development; his offensive game is not polished enough for the majors.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.