Sal Fasano

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:47 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	89	10	5	0	3	10	6	22	0	0	-0.5	.277	.345	.464	-.029	.260	.328	.439	.264	2.9	26-C 0	0.6
75^o	89	9	5	0	3	10	6	22	0	0	-0.5	.253	.319	.418	-.146	.237	.304	.396	.241	0.5	26-C 0	0.4
60^o	89	8	4	0	2	9	6	23	0	0	-0.5	.234	.299	.382	-.236	.219	.285	.362	.223	-1.4	26-C 0	0.2
50^o	89	7	4	0	2	9	5	23	0	0	-0.5	.219	.283	.353	-.309	.205	.269	.334	.206	-2.8	26-C 0	0.1
40^o	89	7	4	0	2	9	5	23	0	0	-0.4	.209	.272	.334	-.357	.196	.258	.316	.195	-3.8	26-C 0	0.0
25^o	89	6	4	0	1	8	5	24	0	0	-0.4	.188	.248	.294	-.458	.176	.236	.278	.168	-5.9	26-C 0	-0.2
10^o	89	3	3	0	1	5	4	27	1	0	-0.4	.143	.192	.207	-.684	.134	.183	.196	.023	-10.4	26-C 2	-0.5
Weighted Mean	93	7	4	0	2	10	6	24	0	0	-0.4	.212	.275	.339	-.273	.198	.261	.321	.197	-3.0	27-C 0	0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
47%	59%	31%	41%	1.05

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 37)	93	7	4	0	2	10	6	24	0	0	-0.4	.212	.275	.339	-.273	.198	.261	.321	.197	-3.0	27-C 0	0.1
2010 (age 38)	49	3	2	0	1	6	3	13	0	0	-0.1	.203	.263	.337	-.386	.188	.246	.315	.193	-1.5	17-C 1	0.1
2011 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 40)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 43)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.227	.294	.368
vs RHP	.207	.268	.324
Split	+.020	+.026	+.044
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-3.3	0.0	0.1	$400,000	-3.6	0.2
2010	-2.0	1.0	0.1	$450,000	-1.3	0.3
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.2	$150,000	0.1	1.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.241	.206	.168	.197
2010	.250	.211	.126	.193
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	41%	0%	47%
2010	83%	47%	29%
2011	97%	81%	23%
2012	93%	90%	16%
2013	93%	91%	11%
2014	100%	96%	9%
2015	100%	100%	4%

13

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Kelly Stinnett	2007	62		11	John Flaherty	2005	28
2	Steve Yeager	1986	55		12	Ellie Hendricks	1978	28
3	Charlie O'Brien	1999	44		13	Bob Boone	1985	28
4	Del Rice	1960	44		14	Ray Mueller	1950	26
5	Pat Borders	2001	42		15	Tom Lampkin	2002	25
6	Jim Hegan	1958	41		16	Ron Hassey	1991	25
7	Tom Prince	2002	40		17	Jim Sundberg	1989	24
8	Lance Parrish	1994	35		18	Damian Miller	2007	23
9	Clyde McCullough	1955	33		19	Mike Mordecai	2005	22
10	Buck Martinez	1986	31		20	Hubie Brooks	1994	21

Player Comments

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2008

Sal Fasano has become something of a minor celebrity among the usually faceless ranks of backup catchers. This has more to do with the fact that he looks like Snuffleupagus wearing a Thurman Munson costume and talks like one of Saturday Night Live's Super Fans than with his occasional power and solid defensive reputation.

2007

Sal Fasano displayed a winning personality with the Yankees, but little else of merit; Posada has been exceptionally durable, missing time only for scheduled days off and minor injuries since 2001. Still, that accounts for 25 to 31 games caught by backups each year. In that time, the reserves have hit roughly .219/.253/.340 in 810 plate appearances. There has got to be a better way.

2006

Had an astonishingly good run, stepping up when injuries made him the starting catcher, popping homers at an unprecedented rate. He also gave up stolen bases at an unprecedented rate, gutting his fielding rating. Signed with the Phillies, where he`s not exactly the perfect reserve behind Mike Lieberthal, but he`ll do.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	CLR	A+	12	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	-0.1	.083	.083	.083	-1.041	.083	.083	.083	.000	-3.3		-0.2
2006	PHI	MLB	149	9	8	0	4	10	5	47	0	1	-1.3	.243	.284	.386	-.208	.241	.277	.383	.223	-2.5	41-C -1	0.0
2006	NYA	MLB	57	3	4	0	1	5	2	14	0	0	-0.3	.143	.222	.286	-.516	.143	.222	.265	.170	-4.6	17-C 0	-0.3
2007	SYR	AAA	163	18	4	0	8	14	6	33	1	0	-1.2	.262	.337	.455	-.275	.207	.264	.367	.218	-6.8	37-C 2	0.1
2007	TOR	MLB	49	5	3	0	1	4	2	19	0	0	0.5	.178	.229	.311	-.457	.178	.229	.289	.174	-2.7	14-C -1	-0.3
2008	RIC	AAA	92	6	3	1	2	9	5	22	0	0	-0.4	.193	.272	.325	-.483	.153	.226	.282	.168	-9.6	22-C 4	0.0
2008	CLE	MLB	54	5	4	0	0	6	3	17	0	0	0.0	.261	.340	.348	-.127	.261	.340	.348	.250	0.8	13-C 2	0.4

Historical Stats