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2007 Estrada had a nice year, rebounding from his weak final season with Atlanta. The dilemma for Josh Byrnes and Co. boiled down to this: Can the production that arbitration-eligible Estrada provided be approximated by the far cheaper tandem of Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero? One can only assume the answer they arrived at was `yes,` since Estrada was shipped off to the Brewers for Doug Davis. Estrada was frustrated by the trade (and made public comments in the press about it), but he`s about to get more expensive, and Arizona has the luxury of promoting from within at almost every position. If Snyder`s rebound was for real, and if Montero can hit major league pitching the way some think he can, trading Estrada was the right call. Credit Josh Byrnes once again for letting the kids play. 2006 Estrada didn`t do much in the Phillies organization, and perhaps no one except Schuerholz envisioned his breaking out, first at Richmond in 2003, then in Atlanta in 2004. A regression was predictable, but Estrada did fairly well before absorbing the brunt of a violent collision at the plate with Darin Erstad on June 6. Estrada suffered a mild concussion, and while he returned within a week, lingering pain hampered him the rest of the year and gave the Braves an opportunity to take a long look at Brian McCann. All told, Estrada hit .282/.328/.406 before the crash, .241/.279/.332 after. That was enough to convince Schuerholz to deal Estrada to Arizona, where he`ll start, but as a 30-ish catcher with a bad back and an offensive game overly reliant on batting average, he`s a risk. 2005 Estrada before being traded to the Braves: 2338 PA, .274/.322/.332
Estrada after being traded to the Braves: 958 PA, .319/.383/.474
Also, keep in mind that the totality of his Braves' plate appearances have come at the Triple-A and major league level, while his Phillies work was mostly at lower levels. So is it blind luck, or is it possible the Braves knew something we didn't? PECOTA sees Estrada's recent success as the result of high batting averages and fluky hits on balls in play rates. Expect significant regression. 2003 Estrada returned to Triple-A with Mike Lieberthal having the rare healthy season, and promptly got the organization excited with a hot start. As the season wore on his offense returned to the same mediocre level seen in years past. He’ll make a fine backup, but he’s not going to be a starter for a championship team. Not that the Braves are likely to find out, since flipping Kevin Millwood for Estrada is a nifty way to crush a team’s championship hopes. 2002 Estrada really needed at least a year of Triple-A before being thrown into the major-league fire, but he got only a few weeks before his promotion after Mike Lieberthal blew out his knee. The Phils decided to make Estrada their starter, a decision we might have applauded had Estrada drawn more than ten walks in 2000. Barring a late-career spike in his production, Estrada is probably maxed out as a #2 catcher.
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