Brian Esposito

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	MEM	AAA	186	13	9	0	2	12	3	32	0	1	-1.8	.234	.264	.320	-.497	.196	.222	.263	.152	-19.6	43-C -7	-2.1
2007	MEM	AAA	254	11	6	0	4	16	11	52	0	2	0.0	.178	.217	.252	-.695	.139	.173	.201	.053	-42.6	67-C -7	-3.7
2008	TUL	AA	266	27	2	1	5	26	8	46	4	1	0.1	.206	.241	.283	-.806	.118	.141	.169	.000	-50.0	65-C -4	-3.7

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:32 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	257	18	9	1	5	22	11	58	0	1	-1.2	.229	.269	.334	-.277	.232	.272	.343	.207	-6.5	63-C -1	0.2
75^o	243	12	7	0	3	18	9	60	0	1	-1.0	.191	.227	.271	-.464	.193	.229	.278	.159	-16.7	60-C -1	-0.9
60^o	224	8	6	0	2	14	7	62	0	1	-0.8	.159	.191	.217	-.621	.161	.193	.223	.093	-23.6	56-C -1	-1.6
50^o	211	5	5	0	1	11	6	63	0	1	-0.7	.140	.170	.186	-.711	.142	.171	.191	.049	-26.7	53-C -1	-1.8
40^o	201	6	5	0	2	9	6	63	0	0	-0.7	.152	.183	.206	-.653	.154	.185	.212	.016	-22.7	51-C -1	-1.8
25^o	201	6	5	0	2	9	6	63	0	0	-0.7	.152	.183	.206	-.653	.154	.185	.212	.016	-22.7	51-C -1	-1.8
10^o	201	6	5	0	2	9	6	63	0	0	-0.7	.152	.183	.206	-.653	.154	.185	.212	.016	-22.7	51-C -1	-1.8
Weighted Mean	250	9	6	0	2	16	8	69	0	1	-0.8	.159	.192	.218	-.609	.162	.193	.224	.095	-22.1	62-C -1	-1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
41%	41%	58%	36%	2.71

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 30)	250	9	6	0	2	16	8	69	0	1	-0.8	.159	.192	.218	-.609	.162	.193	.224	.095	-22.1	62-C -1	-1.2
2010 (age 31)	271	11	6	0	2	19	10	72	0	1	-0.6	.174	.211	.230	-.570	.174	.209	.233	.123	-14.2	66-C -1	-0.8
2011 (age 32)	197	7	4	0	2	13	9	55	0	1	-0.3	.167	.209	.219	-.590	.167	.208	.222	.116	-8.4	50-C -2	-0.5
2012 (age 33)	249	9	7	0	2	18	9	66	0	1	-0.3	.165	.204	.220	-.600	.165	.202	.223	.110	-8.4	62-C -2	-0.5
2013 (age 34)	153	5	4	0	1	11	5	36	0	0	-0.2	.177	.212	.229	-.567	.177	.210	.233	.125	-3.9	40-C -3	-0.3
2014 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.176	.210	.247
vs RHP	.156	.188	.210
Split	+.020	+.023	+.037
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-24.4	-1.0	-1.2	$400,000	-23.8	0.2
2010	-23.1	-1.0	-0.8	$400,000	-15.7	0.1
2011	-17.4	-2.0	-0.5	$400,000	-9.4	0.0
2012	-22.8	-2.0	-0.5	$400,000	-9.0	0.0
2013	-12.9	-3.0	-0.3	$400,000	-5.0	0.0
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.159	.049	.016	.095
2010	.186	.102	.071	.123
2011	.177	.083	.039	.116
2012	.157	.135	.070	.110
2013	.182	.133	.081	.125
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	36%	0%	41%
2010	51%	36%	39%
2011	69%	52%	42%
2012	69%	64%	44%
2013	82%	66%	44%
2014	90%	84%	38%
2015	98%	96%	37%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

33

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Dan Firova	1987	48		11	Pedro Lopez	1999	27
2	Charlie Greene	2001	43		12	Chris Ashby	2005	27
3	Chris Heintz	2004	42		13	Fernando Lunar	2007	27
4	Hector Ortiz	2000	41		14	Stan Hough	1984	26
5	Steve Torrealba	2008	37		15	Julio Mosquera	2002	23
6	John Pachot	2005	32		16	Chris Tremie	2000	22
7	Jeff Smith	2004	32		17	Frank Charles	1999	21
8	Carlos Hernandez	1997	31		18	Jason Hill	2007	21
9	Rick Wrona	1994	31		19	Chris Snusz	2003	19
10	Jason Brown	2004	30		20	Doug Davis	1993	18

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