Jason Ellison

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:19 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	456	50	24	2	4	33	41	81	8	4	0.5	.246	.320	.344	-.171	.246	.320	.349	.236	-5.2	108-CF 4	1.2
75^o	438	42	21	2	3	30	37	81	7	4	0.4	.227	.298	.313	-.263	.227	.298	.318	.217	-14.4	104-CF 3	0.2
60^o	428	38	19	2	3	28	34	80	7	4	0.4	.218	.287	.298	-.308	.218	.288	.302	.207	-18.6	102-CF 3	-0.3
50^o	423	36	18	2	3	27	33	80	7	4	0.4	.213	.281	.290	-.333	.213	.282	.294	.201	-20.8	101-CF 3	-0.5
40^o	413	32	16	2	2	26	31	79	7	4	0.4	.204	.271	.275	-.376	.205	.271	.279	.190	-24.4	98-CF 2	-1.0
25^o	395	27	14	1	2	23	28	78	6	4	0.3	.190	.254	.252	-.445	.191	.254	.256	.171	-29.7	94-CF 2	-1.7
10^o	364	21	11	1	1	19	23	76	5	3	0.3	.171	.229	.219	-.545	.171	.230	.222	.139	-35.9	87-CF 1	-2.5
Weighted Mean	451	38	18	2	3	29	35	86	7	4	0.4	.208	.275	.281	-.350	.208	.275	.285	.194	-20.6	107-CF 3	-0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
28%	50%	33%	20%	0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 31)	451	38	18	2	3	29	35	86	7	4	0.4	.208	.275	.281	-.350	.208	.275	.285	.194	-20.6	107-CF 3	-0.6
2010 (age 32)	428	38	18	2	3	31	34	78	7	4	0.3	.219	.287	.299	-.320	.216	.284	.300	.207	-10.3	102-CF 1	0.0
2011 (age 33)	399	34	17	2	2	27	33	71	8	4	0.2	.215	.287	.291	-.334	.212	.283	.291	.205	-6.3	95-CF -1	-0.2
2012 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.223	.294	.309
vs RHP	.204	.268	.270
Split	+.019	+.026	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-26.8	3.0	-0.6	$400,000	-17.7	0.3
2010	-20.6	1.0	0.0	$400,000	-9.1	0.1
2011	-19.9	-1.0	-0.2	$400,000	-6.1	0.2
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	$25,000	0.0	0.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.217	.201	.171	.194
2010	.231	.213	.181	.207
2011	.227	.199	.183	.205
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	20%	0%	28%
2010	55%	38%	25%
2011	69%	62%	20%
2012	77%	72%	19%
2013	88%	78%	15%
2014	94%	88%	9%
2015	97%	93%	7%

55

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Kevin Sefcik	2002	64		11	Jon Shave	1999	42
2	Ken Woods	2001	58		12	Jim Eppard	1991	41
3	Adrian Brown	2005	57		13	Casey Parsons	1985	40
4	Chris Sexton	2002	50		14	P.J. Forbes	1998	40
5	Mitch Simons	2000	47		15	Jose Flores	2004	40
6	Greg Tubbs	1993	47		16	Pedro Swann	2002	39
7	Shawn Gilbert	1996	46		17	Ira Smith	1998	38
8	Quinton McCracken	2001	45		18	Mickey Lopez	2005	37
9	Terry Bogener	1986	44		19	Brian Dallimore	2005	37
10	Nick Capra	1989	42		20	Bobby Darula	2006	37

Player Comments

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2007

For the first two months of 2006, Ellison played nearly every day and still had only 25 at bats--such is the life of the man who will one day be remembered as `Barry Bonds`s Legs.` The Giants eventually decided to let him play full-time in Fresno, and, while he rocked the PCL, there was no indication in September or since that he`s being considered for anything other than a reprise of his fifth outfielder role.

2005

Fifth outfielder material at best, Ellison's best asset in his speed, and even then he's highly unreliable as a basestealer with only a 66% success rate the last two years. With zero-upside Ellison types waiting in the wings, you can almost see the logic in signing below-average players to multi-million-dollar free-agent deals. Almost.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	FRE	AAA	211	41	18	2	1	18	14	20	7	4	1.8	.406	.452	.536	.070	.321	.365	.429	.276	11.2	26-RF 0 18-CF -5	0.4
2006	SFN	MLB	91	14	5	1	2	4	5	14	2	2	-1.8	.222	.273	.383	-.197	.232	.281	.390	.227	-3.3	13-LF 3 8-RF -1	0.0
2007	CIN	MLB	56	7	1	0	1	2	5	15	1	0	0.1	.188	.278	.271	-.400	.184	.273	.265	.197	-3.5	9-RF 1	-0.2
2007	SEA	MLB	48	9	0	0	0	0	1	12	3	3	-1.9	.283	.298	.283	-.280	.283	.298	.283	.195	-2.6	7-LF 0 5-RF 0	-0.4
2008	OKL	AAA	556	65	21	4	2	45	63	77	14	10	-2.3	.239	.335	.312	-.452	.183	.266	.235	.178	-51.2	117-CF 4	-3.0
2008	TEX	MLB	14	5	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	0.0	.231	.286	.231	-.399	.231	.286	.231	.177	-1.0		0.0

Historical Stats