A.J. Ellis

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Dodgers Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 6 A.J. Ellis 5 11 .218 1 0 1 0 .332 .275 -0.1

1 2009 Total 5 11 .218 1 0 1 0 .332 .275 -0.1

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	JAX	AA	314	34	9	1	0	21	53	53	2	0	-2.4	.250	.383	.294	-.337	.205	.317	.239	.209	-19.5	78-C -2	-0.5
2007	JAX	AA	430	59	22	2	8	57	60	61	1	4	-2.4	.269	.382	.409	-.315	.199	.289	.302	.210	-24.4	103-C -5	-0.9
2008	LVG	AAA	337	44	17	4	4	59	50	44	0	2	-4.9	.321	.436	.456	-.181	.228	.336	.326	.241	-5.6	79-C 4	1.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:36 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	351	42	17	1	6	33	43	66	2	1	-1.5	.254	.354	.376	-.038	.259	.357	.394	.266	11.1	85-C 4	2.8
75^o	347	35	15	1	5	30	39	70	1	1	-1.4	.228	.324	.332	-.169	.232	.327	.348	.240	0.4	84-C 4	1.8
60^o	344	32	14	1	4	28	38	72	1	1	-1.3	.215	.309	.310	-.235	.219	.311	.324	.226	-4.9	83-C 4	1.3
50^o	343	30	14	1	4	27	37	73	1	1	-1.3	.208	.300	.298	-.270	.212	.303	.312	.218	-7.8	83-C 4	1.1
40^o	341	28	13	1	3	26	35	74	1	1	-1.2	.198	.289	.281	-.319	.202	.291	.295	.207	-11.7	82-C 4	0.7
25^o	339	25	13	1	3	25	34	76	1	1	-1.2	.188	.275	.263	-.374	.191	.278	.275	.193	-15.9	82-C 4	0.3
10^o	332	19	11	1	1	21	30	80	1	1	-1.0	.161	.243	.218	-.507	.164	.245	.229	.154	-25.9	80-C 4	-0.8
Weighted Mean	330	28	13	1	3	26	35	70	1	1	-1.3	.206	.298	.294	-.291	.209	.300	.308	.215	-7.3	80-C 3	1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
25%	43%	38%	20%	1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 28)	330	28	13	1	3	26	35	70	1	1	-1.3	.206	.298	.294	-.291	.209	.300	.308	.215	-7.3	80-C 3	1.1
2010 (age 29)	289	24	12	1	3	24	31	60	1	1	-0.9	.209	.304	.300	-.274	.210	.302	.310	.220	-4.9	71-C 3	0.9
2011 (age 30)	334	32	14	1	5	31	38	71	1	1	-0.8	.215	.315	.324	-.218	.216	.314	.335	.233	-1.4	81-C 4	1.1
2012 (age 31)	277	24	11	1	4	24	31	59	1	1	-0.6	.216	.314	.315	-.233	.217	.312	.325	.229	-1.8	68-C 4	0.9
2013 (age 32)	244	19	9	0	3	23	28	53	1	0	-0.4	.213	.312	.302	-.255	.214	.310	.313	.225	-1.7	60-C 2	0.5
2014 (age 33)	207	16	8	0	3	18	23	40	1	0	-0.3	.216	.316	.309	-.237	.216	.314	.319	.229	-1.0	52-C 2	0.5
2015 (age 34)	234	19	10	1	3	22	25	44	1	0	-0.3	.233	.320	.328	-.196	.233	.318	.339	.236	0.0	58-C 1	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.222	.315	.323
vs RHP	.202	.291	.283
Split	+.020	+.024	+.040
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-5.9	3.0	1.1	$750,000	-6.2	1.8
2010	-3.9	3.0	0.9	$825,000	-4.7	3.2
2011	-0.2	4.0	1.1	$1,500,000	-0.4	5.1
2012	-1.3	4.0	0.9	$1,425,000	-0.3	4.2
2013	-2.1	2.0	0.5	$1,000,000	-1.4	2.7
2014	-1.0	2.0	0.5	$1,200,000	-0.4	1.5
2015	0.5	1.0	0.4	$1,175,000	0.2	1.5
Peak			4.9	$4,000,000	0.0	18.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.240	.218	.193	.215
2010	.248	.223	.192	.220
2011	.256	.226	.209	.233
2012	.253	.226	.205	.229
2013	.244	.215	.188	.225
2014	.252	.230	.202	.229
2015	.248	.241	.195	.236

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	20%	0%	25%
2010	39%	16%	23%
2011	49%	33%	19%
2012	63%	40%	19%
2013	75%	56%	14%
2014	78%	56%	16%
2015	84%	67%	13%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

46

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Brad King	2003	49		11	Matt Treanor	2004	36
2	Rick Sellers	1995	40		12	Chad Moeller	2003	34
3	Russ McGinnis	1991	40		13	Chris Turner	1997	33
4	Ryan Hanigan	2008	40		14	Michel Hernandez	2006	33
5	B.J. Waszgis	1998	39		15	Alberto Castillo	1998	32
6	Danny Ardoin	2002	38		16	Bud Bulling	1981	32
7	Jim Foster	1999	38		17	Carlos Maldonado	2007	32
8	Mike Rose	2004	37		18	Tom Prince	1992	31
9	Doug Mirabelli	1999	36		19	Tom Wilson	1999	30
10	Tim Laker	1998	36		20	Steven Liddle	1987	30

Player Comments

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2008

A defensively sound backstop who's made glacial progress up the organizational ladder, A.J. Ellis outslugged his OBP last year for the first time as a professional

Pos	Order	Name	PT%	PA	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	VORP
C	6	A.J. Ellis	5	11	.218	1	0	1	0	.332	.275	-0.1
1		2009 Total	5	11	.218	1	0	1	0	.332	.275	-0.1

Projected Playing Time