Chad Durbin

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Setup Chad Durbin 15 0 4.62 1.36 13 7 2 11 1 1 0 1.1

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:31 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	2	3	48	0	60.3	52	22	45	5	45%	.264	6	1.24	2.82	0	2.92	7.7	2.9	5.7	0.7	18.9	1.6	2.4
75^o	3	2	2	44	0	55.7	52	22	40	6	45%	.277	3	1.32	3.43	0	3.55	8.3	3.0	5.6	0.9	13.4	1.1	1.8
60^o	3	2	2	40	0	50.7	51	20	36	6	45%	.290	0	1.41	4.10	0	4.25	9.0	3.2	5.5	1.0	8.1	0.6	1.2
50^o	2	2	1	38	0	47.7	51	20	33	6	45%	.298	-2	1.47	4.56	0	4.73	9.5	3.2	5.4	1.1	5.0	0.4	0.9
40^o	2	2	1	35	0	44.0	50	19	30	6	45%	.307	-4	1.54	5.07	0	5.26	10.0	3.4	5.3	1.2	1.9	0.1	0.6
25^o	2	2	0	29	0	36.3	46	16	24	6	45%	.328	-9	1.71	6.30	0	6.52	11.2	3.6	5.1	1.5	-3.7	-0.3	-0.1
10^o	1	1	0	15	0	19.0	30	10	11	5	44%	.371	-21	2.10	9.42	0	9.70	14.2	4.1	4.5	2.1	-8.9	-0.7	-0.7
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	34	0	43.7	45	18	31	5	45%	.291	0	1.42	4.21	0	4.36	9.1	3.2	5.5	1.0	6.4	0.5	0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
25%	44%	34%	35%	1.04

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 31)	2	2	1	34	0	43.7	45	18	31	5	45%	.291	0	1.42	4.21	0	4.36	9.1	3.2	5.5	1.0	6.4	0.5	0.9
2010 (age 32)	2	2	1	35	0	43.7	45	16	31	6	45%	.290	-1	1.40	4.12	0	4.27	9.2	3.0	5.4	1.1	4.6	0.5	0.7
2011 (age 33)	2	2	1	34	0	41.7	48	16	28	6	43%	.310	-4	1.53	4.66	0	4.79	10.2	3.0	5.1	1.2	2.1	0.3	0.4
2012 (age 34)	2	2	1	33	0	42.0	44	16	27	5	45%	.291	-3	1.41	4.24	0	4.42	9.2	2.9	4.9	0.9	2.4	0.5	0.4
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.251	.342	.391
vs RHB	.246	.325	.392
Split	+.005	+.017	-.000
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.9	$1,625,000	6.0	4.2
2010	0.7	$1,325,000	4.3	2.9
2011	0.4	$900,000	1.9	0.6
2012	0.4	$1,000,000	2.3	0.9
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	2.7	$3,225,000	15.5	10.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	3.55	4.73	6.52	4.36
2010	3.49	4.35	5.45	4.27
2011	4.27	4.94	6.26	4.79
2012	3.79	4.63	5.42	4.42
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	35%	0%	25%
2010	58%	36%	21%
2011	67%	50%	9%
2012	76%	59%	10%
2013	84%	73%	6%
2014	89%	81%	9%
2015	89%	88%	8%

72

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Juan Acevedo	2001	78		11	T.J. Mathews	2001	61
2	Dave Borkowski	2008	71		12	Sean Lowe	2002	61
3	Donne Wall	1999	68		13	Jack Lamabe	1968	61
4	Mike DeJean	2002	68		14	Kelly Downs	1992	60
5	Don Nottebart	1967	67		15	Geremi Gonzalez	2006	60
6	Billy Muffett	1962	65		16	Jesse Jefferson	1980	60
7	Bruce Dal Canton	1974	64		17	Willie Blair	1997	60
8	Harry Dorish	1953	63		18	Hal Brown	1956	60
9	Jason Grilli	2008	62		19	Les Lancaster	1993	59
10	Willard Schmidt	1959	62		20	Dave Veres	1998	59

Player Comments

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2008

Move along, nothing to see here. Forced into the rotation by Kenny Rogers' injuries, Durbin held his spot for much of the first half thanks to the Tigers' defense and nothing else. From May 1 through June 19, he had an ERA of 3.49 despite walking 24 and striking out 23. He's entirely a product of good fortune on balls in play and not likely to ever throw 127 innings in a major league season again. Non-tendered in December, Durbin will be looking for some human vacuum cleaners to pitch in front of.

2007

Chad Durbin made 45 starts in the major leagues before his 24th birthday, but was largely forgotten about after undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery in 2002. He`s made a full recovery. Unfortunately, 100 percent of Chad Durbin is still Chad Durbin.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Setup	Chad Durbin	15	0	4.62	1.36	13	7	2	11	1	1	0	1.1

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	TOL	AAA	11	8	0	28	28	185.0	169	46	149	17	42%	.283	-6	1.16	3.11	9	5.79	10.2	2.7	4.9	1.5	-3.6	0.0	1.7
2006	DET	MLB	0	0	0	3	0	6.0	6	0	3	1	43%	.250	3	1.00	1.50	1	3.00	9.0	0.0	4.5	1.5	3.1	0.0	0.1
2007	DET	MLB	8	7	1	36	19	127.7	133	49	66	21	46%	.274	-18	1.43	4.72	8	5.34	9.3	3.2	4.0	1.5	14.8	2.3	1.9
2008	PHI	MLB	5	4	1	71	0	87.7	81	35	63	5	48%	.303	7	1.32	2.87	-1	3.11	8.6	3.2	5.9	0.5	22.1	1.8	3.4

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats