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Brendan Donnelly
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 36
6' 3"
245 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 ANA MJ 9 3 0 66 0 65.3 60 19 53 9 33% .277 2 1.21 3.72 4.02 4.06 8.1 2.7 7.1 1.1 11.5 0.6 2.8
2006 ANA MJ 6 0 0 62 0 64.0 58 28 53 8 47% .276 0 1.34 3.94 4.05 3.92 7.8 3.6 7.0 1.0 10.9 1.1 2.0
2007 BOS MJ 2 1 0 27 0 20.7 19 5 15 0 36% .288 5 1.16 3.04 3.31 3.43 8.1 1.7 6.0 0.0 5.9 0.6 0.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:31 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 3 2 3 47 0 51.0 44 15 41 4 43% .271 8 1.16 2.50 2.83 2.48 7.3 2.5 6.6 0.6 19.2 1.6 2.3
75o 3 2 2 43 0 47.7 44 15 38 4 43% .284 5 1.24 3.15 3.30 3.10 7.8 2.5 6.5 0.8 14.2 1.2 1.8
60o 2 2 2 40 0 44.3 44 14 35 4 42% .295 2 1.31 3.74 3.73 3.67 8.4 2.7 6.5 0.9 10.2 0.8 1.4
50o 2 2 2 37 0 41.7 44 14 32 5 42% .306 0 1.38 4.30 4.14 4.20 8.9 2.7 6.4 1.0 6.7 0.5 1.0
40o 2 2 1 36 0 40.7 44 14 32 5 42% .309 -1 1.40 4.46 4.26 4.36 9.1 2.8 6.4 1.0 5.8 0.5 0.9
25o 2 2 1 33 0 37.0 43 13 29 5 42% .322 -4 1.50 5.21 4.81 5.07 9.8 2.9 6.4 1.2 2.1 0.2 0.5
10o 1 2 1 29 0 32.3 41 12 25 5 41% .339 -8 1.62 6.24 5.56 6.03 10.7 3.1 6.3 1.4 -2.1 -0.2 0.1
Weighted Mean 2 2 2 39 0 43.3 44 14 34 5 42% .300 1 1.34 4.02 3.92 3.94 8.6 2.7 6.5 0.9 8.0 0.7 1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

48%

27%

17%

0.89

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 36) 2 2 2 39 0 43.3 44 14 34 5 42% .300 1 1.34 4.02 3.92 3.94 8.6 2.7 6.5 0.9 8.0 0.7 1.2
2009 (age 37) 2 2 1 33 0 37.0 39 12 27 4 42% .304 -3 1.39 4.15 4.10 4.05 8.9 2.8 6.0 0.9 5.4 0.5 0.8
2010 (age 38) 2 2 1 30 0 32.3 37 11 23 4 43% .320 -7 1.49 4.80 4.73 4.66 9.8 2.8 5.9 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.4
2011 (age 39) 2 2 1 31 0 35.3 38 12 26 5 40% .299 -6 1.42 4.59 4.45 4.45 9.0 2.9 6.0 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.3
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .246 .343 .394
vs RHB .238 .305 .363
Split +.008 +.038 +.031
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.2 $2,425,000 8.0 4.5
2009 0.8 $1,800,000 5.4 3.1
2010 0.4 $875,000 1.9 0.8
2011 0.3 $825,000 1.7 1.0
2012 0.1 $550,000 0.6 0.2
2013 0.1 $575,000 0.6 0.0
2014 0.1 $575,000 0.6 0.3
Peak 2.9 $4,375,000 17.7 9.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.10 4.20 5.07 3.94
2009 3.09 3.96 5.05 4.05
2010 3.80 4.34 5.94 4.66
2011 3.20 5.20 5.83 4.45
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 17% 0% 25%
2009 33% 20% 24%
2010 66% 47% 12%
2011 74% 65% 9%
2012 85% 76% 5%
2013 88% 87% 2%
2014 94% 89% 4%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

29

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Todd Worrell 1996 42 11 Jose Mesa 2003 30
2 Tim Worrell 2004 41 12 Al Worthington 1966 30
3 Don McMahon 1967 41 13 Jim Hearn 1958 28
4 Jay Howell 1992 40 14 Rich Gossage 1988 28
5 Ted Power 1992 39 15 Tom Ferrick 1952 26
6 Steve Reed 2002 38 16 Joe Hoerner 1973 26
7 Cal Eldred 2004 37 17 Aurelio Lopez 1985 26
8 Giovanni Carrara 2005 36 18 Roberto Hernandez 2001 25
9 Barney Schultz 1963 34 19 Rick Aguilera 1998 24
10 Marv Grissom 1955 31 20 Dave Veres 2003 24

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Regardless of whether he`s just not the same pitcher since Frank Robinson (and former teammate Jose Guillen) so publicly outed him as a cheat, Donnelly did manage to retain some measure of his value last year. That said, he was almost seven runs worse with inherited runners on in 2006 than he had been in 2005, and his sneaky delivery isn`t quite so sneaky now that the movement on his pitches has flattened out a bit. He still has value as a right-handed situational guy, so, to an extent, he`ll be stepping into Chad Bradford`s old role with Boston, having been dealt straight up for lefty Phil Seibel.

2006

At one time Donnelly was a poster child for the Angels` ability to dig up relievers with good heat, nasty movement, and tricky deliveries. But now it looks like the league caught on--and up ?to him. Frank Robinson catching him putting an extra something extra on the ball put an exclamation point on his decline, but Donnelly had already lost ground from his tremendous `03 season the previous year.

2005

Donnelly took ten years to make the majors. Having finally made it at 30, he established himself with two terrific years, only to have his nose blown off his face in a spring training ball-shagging accident. That sounds like hyperbole, but it's not; Donnelly's proboscis was broken in 20 places and required three surgeries to set it straight. Somewhat miraculously (think Bryce Florie), when Donnelly came back in June he pitched about as well as he always had. In many ways the pride of the Angels, Donnelly shares his birthday with jazz great/baseball fan Louis Armstrong. The birthday that Satchmo claimed, anyway.

2003

You could probably dislocate something just watching this guy pitch. Donnelly’s motion resembles some sort of fast-forward Tai Chi regimen, with lots of jerky, angular motion. Assistant GM Ken Forsch says that they love bullpen guys with a lot of movement on their pitches, so obviously they love him. He throws a very nasty sinking pitch, which causes right-handers fits as they pound yet another ball to Eckstein. Righties hit a whopping .148 against him for the season, with no home runs in over 100 AB. He’s a great guy to have in your pen, which isn’t surprising to find on this team.

2002

A road-weary Donnelly—he'd pitched for five teams in the previous two seasons—signed with the Angels prior to last season. He pitched so well he was added to the 40-man roster in October. Even if he repeats his career-best performance, he’ll need some luck to see action with the Angels in 2002.


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