<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

Manny Delcarmen
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 26
6' 2"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Setup Manny Delcarmen 60 0 3.80 1.34 55 25 4 56 3 2 3 13.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 PME 2A 4 4 3 31 0 39.0 31 20 49 3 58% .298 -9 1.31 3.23 5.71 7.08 9.2 6.6 7.6 1.0 -5.6 0.1
2005 PAW 3A 3 1 2 15 0 21.0 17 13 23 0 35% .309 5 1.43 1.29 4.41 1.86 7.9 6.5 7.4 0.0 8.0 1.7
2005 BOS MJ 0 0 0 10 0 9.0 8 7 9 0 63% .333 11 1.67 3.00 4.40 3.12 8.3 7.3 9.3 0.0 2.8 -0.1 0.2
2006 PAW 3A 0 1 0 10 0 17.2 9 6 19 0 41% .231 13 0.87 2.09 2.92 3.38 5.6 3.9 7.3 0.0 3.9 0.5
2006 BOS MJ 2 0 0 50 0 53.3 68 17 45 2 47% .382 7 1.59 5.07 4.49 4.80 10.4 2.7 7.0 0.3 4.3 0.6 0.9
2007 PAW 3A 3 2 0 20 0 29.3 28 14 37 1 47% .351 8 1.43 3.38 4.85 4.76 9.8 4.8 8.3 0.6 2.6 0.9
2007 BOS MJ 0 0 1 44 0 44.0 28 17 41 4 47% .222 13 1.02 2.05 2.80 2.06 5.8 3.1 7.6 0.8 18.4 1.7 1.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:22 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 5 3 6 74 0 74.3 60 28 71 5 47% .275 16 1.19 2.68 2.76 2.68 6.8 3.1 7.9 0.5 25.9 2.3 3.3
75o 4 3 5 68 0 68.3 58 28 65 5 47% .285 14 1.25 3.16 3.11 3.14 7.2 3.3 7.8 0.6 20.0 1.7 2.6
60o 4 3 4 62 0 63.0 57 27 59 5 47% .294 12 1.32 3.61 3.44 3.59 7.6 3.5 7.7 0.7 15.0 1.3 2.1
50o 3 3 3 59 0 60.3 56 26 56 5 47% .299 11 1.35 3.85 3.61 3.82 7.8 3.6 7.7 0.7 12.6 1.1 1.8
40o 3 3 3 56 0 57.0 54 25 52 5 47% .305 9 1.40 4.17 3.84 4.13 8.0 3.7 7.6 0.7 9.7 0.8 1.5
25o 2 2 2 44 0 45.7 48 22 41 4 47% .324 4 1.54 5.21 4.61 5.14 8.9 4.0 7.4 0.9 2.1 0.2 0.6
10o 1 2 1 31 0 32.7 39 18 28 4 47% .345 -3 1.73 6.50 5.57 6.39 10.1 4.5 7.2 1.0 -3.6 -0.3 0.0
Weighted Mean 3 2 3 53 0 54.3 50 23 51 4 47% .298 11 1.34 3.80 3.57 3.77 7.8 3.5 7.7 0.7 12.2 1.0 1.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

13%

38%

36%

15%

0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 26) 3 2 3 53 0 54.3 50 23 51 4 47% .298 11 1.34 3.80 3.57 3.77 7.8 3.5 7.7 0.7 12.2 1.0 1.8
2009 (age 27) 3 2 3 52 0 53.7 51 23 51 4 47% .309 11 1.37 3.68 3.65 3.64 8.0 3.5 7.9 0.7 13.0 1.1 1.9
2010 (age 28) 3 2 3 50 0 50.7 49 22 49 4 47% .316 11 1.40 3.92 3.81 3.88 8.2 3.5 8.0 0.7 10.3 0.9 1.6
2011 (age 29) 2 2 2 42 0 44.0 41 18 41 3 47% .303 10 1.34 3.79 3.50 3.77 7.9 3.4 7.6 0.6 8.6 0.8 1.3
2012 (age 30) 3 2 2 44 0 45.7 45 19 41 4 47% .306 7 1.38 3.86 3.79 3.81 8.2 3.4 7.3 0.7 6.9 0.8 1.0
2013 (age 31) 2 2 2 41 0 42.7 41 18 36 3 47% .299 5 1.38 3.79 3.74 3.75 8.1 3.5 7.0 0.7 5.9 0.8 0.8
2014 (age 32) 1 1 1 21 0 22.7 22 9 20 2 48% .306 7 1.37 4.00 3.76 3.96 8.3 3.2 7.2 0.7 4.2 0.4 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .243 .357 .381
vs RHB .230 .314 .327
Split +.013 +.043 +.054
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.8 $3,800,000 12.3 8.4
2009 1.9 $4,300,000 13.0 9.7
2010 1.6 $3,725,000 10.4 9.1
2011 1.3 $3,200,000 8.7 7.3
2012 1.0 $2,725,000 6.9 5.1
2013 0.8 $2,425,000 5.9 4.7
2014 0.6 $1,950,000 4.3 3.7
Peak 8.4 $15,225,000 51.3 44.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.14 3.82 5.14 3.77
2009 3.10 3.94 4.46 3.64
2010 3.37 4.25 5.15 3.88
2011 3.20 3.90 4.90 3.77
2012 3.56 4.17 5.04 3.81
2013 3.36 3.94 5.43 3.75
2014 3.30 4.17 6.32 3.96


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 13%
2009 23% 3% 15%
2010 29% 11% 11%
2011 42% 24% 12%
2012 52% 37% 13%
2013 57% 47% 9%
2014 68% 53% 8%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

60

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Jack Baldschun 1963 69 11 Matt Anderson 2002 48
2 Jack Lamabe 1963 62 12 Juan Cruz 2005 48
3 Jose Paniagua 2000 62 13 Bob Wickman 1995 47
4 Paul Shuey 1997 58 14 Kenny Rogers 1991 46
5 Gary Wagner 1966 58 15 Sammy Stewart 1981 46
6 Larry Sherry 1961 56 16 Don Bessent 1957 46
7 Scott Strickland 2002 55 17 Marc Wilkins 1997 46
8 Darren Dreifort 1998 54 18 Gene Walter 1987 46
9 Larry Jackson 1957 53 19 Tug McGraw 1971 45
10 Joey McLaughlin 1982 49 20 Carlos Diaz 1984 45

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

This West Roxbury High product has missed bats at every level, both before and after his 2003 Tommy John surgery. Moving to the bullpen has pushed his fastball into the high-90s. Good stuff aside, his 2006 season was a mixed bag. His peripherals considerably outpaced his ERA, but his BABIP was the third-highest in the majors among pitchers with at least 50 innings. He also allowed 19 out of 31 inherited runners to score; at 10.1 runs below expectation, that was the worst in baseball. Much of the damage to his stat line occurred in September, suggesting fatigue was a factor. He`s still young and gifted enough that the Sox aren`t panicking, so expect him to retain a key role in the bullpen.

2006

Delcarmen, a 2nd-round pick in 2000, was on the fast track to Boston before undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid-2003, which cost him a year. The Boston native has a mid-90s fastball, a big 12-to-6 curveball, and a nice change, but he`s had control problems since being converted to relief in the 2004 Arizona Fall League. Still, it was puzzling that the team gave tryouts to a succession of bad relief pitchers rather than offer a regular role to Delcarmen, who was marginally effective pitching only one inning a week. The organization claims to really like him, so he should get a better gig in 2006.

2005

Delcarmen blew out his elbow early in 2003 and took the standard year off for rehab from Tommy John surgery. The Sox were impressed with his rehab work and they think his stuff is better now than before the surgery. His 92-94-mph fastball is now reportedly reaching as high as 97 in the Arizona Fall League. Last year had its expected rough spots, but Delcarmen appears fully recovered and back on track.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.