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Coco Crisp
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats B
Age 28
6'
180 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
CF 1 Coco Crisp 40 313 .278 39 4 30 10 .338 .407 5.5
1   2008 Total 40 313 .278 39 4 30 10 .338 .407 5.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CLE MJ 656 86 42 4 16 69 44 81 15 6 3.0 .300 .345 .465 .128 .310 .364 .493 .291 31.6 134-LF 15 6.7
2006 PAW 3A 4 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 -0.1 .333 .500 .333 .246 .333 .500 .333 .325 0.4 0.0
2006 BOS MJ 452 58 22 2 8 36 31 67 22 4 1.9 .264 .317 .385 -.125 .260 .321 .385 .253 7.5 101-CF -1 2.5
2007 BOS MJ 591 85 28 7 6 60 50 84 28 6 6.5 .268 .330 .382 -.075 .267 .335 .393 .261 11.9 137-CF 29 6.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:43 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 572 89 35 5 11 63 48 78 21 5 2.3 .306 .367 .463 .126 .298 .363 .473 .295 32.8 134-CF 11 6.7
75o 540 75 31 5 9 57 44 75 19 5 2.1 .291 .352 .434 .050 .284 .348 .443 .282 21.2 127-CF 9 5.5
60o 525 70 29 4 9 54 43 74 18 5 2.0 .285 .345 .420 .016 .277 .341 .429 .276 16.2 123-CF 8 5.0
50o 508 63 27 4 8 51 41 72 18 5 1.9 .277 .337 .405 -.022 .270 .334 .414 .268 11.1 120-CF 7 4.4
40o 491 58 25 4 7 48 39 70 17 5 1.8 .271 .330 .391 -.058 .263 .327 .400 .262 6.5 116-CF 7 3.9
25o 462 49 22 3 6 43 35 67 15 5 1.7 .259 .318 .367 -.119 .252 .315 .375 .250 -0.6 109-CF 5 3.1
10o 434 42 20 3 4 38 32 64 14 5 1.5 .248 .306 .345 -.176 .241 .303 .352 .238 -6.5 103-CF 4 2.3
Weighted Mean 549 72 29 4 8 54 44 78 19 5 1.9 .278 .338 .407 -.019 .271 .335 .415 .269 10.0 129-CF 8 5.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

50%

16%

10%

0.75

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 28) 549 72 29 4 8 54 44 78 19 5 1.9 .278 .338 .407 -.019 .271 .335 .415 .269 10.0 129-CF 8 5.0
2009 (age 29) 503 62 28 4 8 53 41 70 15 5 1.7 .276 .337 .408 -.020 .273 .339 .424 .267 9.9 119-CF 5 4.0
2010 (age 30) 499 60 27 3 8 51 42 71 14 5 1.6 .273 .336 .399 -.037 .269 .337 .415 .265 7.4 118-CF 5 3.6
2011 (age 31) 386 41 21 3 6 40 32 54 10 3 1.3 .274 .335 .399 -.037 .270 .337 .415 .264 6.1 92-CF 2 2.9
2012 (age 32) 372 38 20 2 6 39 30 53 9 3 1.1 .270 .331 .394 -.055 .266 .332 .410 .261 4.0 89-CF -1 2.2
2013 (age 33) 384 39 19 2 5 39 31 54 8 3 0.9 .267 .330 .379 -.077 .264 .331 .394 .256 2.0 92-CF 1 1.8
2014 (age 34) 295 29 16 1 5 33 25 43 6 2 0.6 .277 .340 .408 -.014 .274 .342 .424 .268 4.1 72-CF -2 1.7

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .280 .337 .413
vs RHP .278 .339 .402
Split +.002 -.002 +.010
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.0 3.1 5.0 $11,275,000 23.1 15.7
2009 1.7 2.3 4.0 $9,150,000 19.1 19.0
2010 1.5 2.2 3.6 $8,575,000 16.5 16.6
2011 1.2 1.7 2.9 $6,775,000 12.3 12.1
2012 0.9 1.3 2.2 $4,950,000 7.6 7.8
2013 0.7 1.2 1.8 $4,200,000 6.1 6.1
2014 0.7 1.0 1.7 $4,175,000 5.8 6.1
Peak 19.6 $36,925,000 84.5 77.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .282 .268 .250 .269
2009 .273 .261 .243 .267
2010 .275 .258 .241 .265
2011 .277 .256 .235 .264
2012 .273 .254 .235 .261
2013 .267 .247 .225 .256
2014 .276 .260 .244 .268


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 17%
2009 21% 4% 16%
2010 26% 7% 18%
2011 40% 13% 18%
2012 49% 19% 10%
2013 56% 31% 8%
2014 70% 41% 12%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

63

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Brian McRae 1992 40 11 Dan Gladden 2003 33
2 Dave Philley 1979 36 12 Steve Finley 1971 33
3 Randy Winn 1981 36 13 Bobby Tolan 1982 33
4 Tony Scott 1970 36 14 Bob Dernier 1960 33
5 R.J. Reynolds 1973 35 15 Miguel Dilone 2007 32
6 Dave Collins 1992 35 16 Vince Coleman 1975 32
7 Jerry Mumphrey 1975 34 17 Mitch Webster 1969 32
8 Roger Cedeno 1975 34 18 Al Pilarcik 2000 31
9 Dave Gallagher 1957 34 19 Milton Bradley 1979 30
10 Chuck Carr 1998 33 20 Rudy Law 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

In trading for Crisp, the Sox appeared to get a younger, cheaper version of Johnny Damon. PECOTA saw it that way, projecting .295/.347/.445 (.276 EqA) for Crisp, compared to .290/.352/.423 (.274 EqA) for Damon. Legitimate comparison of the two players` 2006 campaigns was scuttled when Crisp broke a bone in his left index finger during the season`s opening week, and severe kidney stones prolonged his absence to seven weeks. His return was another data point in the annals of hitter drop-offs after hand injuries--despite putting the ball into play with about the same frequency, Crisp`s line-drive percentage dropped from 19.6 to 15.9, and the percentage of his fly balls that left the park dropped from 10.1 to 6.7. Late September X-rays showed that his fracture had regressed to where it was in mid-April, and Crisp underwent season-ending surgery. The perception that he was a disappointment in Boston, coupled with his cost certainty ($15.5 million over the next three years) ensured that his availability would be a hot topic over the winter, but the Sox should avoid the temptation to sell low because of one season derailed by a relatively random injury.

2006

One could argue that Covelli Loyce Crisp was rushed to the majors after being acquired from the Cardinals in the Chuck Finley deal, resulting in some harsh treatment in these pages. Crisp seems to have finally caught up to the league with his peak seasons still ahead of him. A career .299 hitter in the minors, Crisp has hit exactly that in the majors over the past two seasons. In 2005 he added twenty points of slugging, largely via doubles (he tied teammate Travis Hafner for fifth in the AL), and pushed his success rate on the bases past 70 percent. A better defender in left than he was in center, the Tribe can get away with Crisp hitting like a centerfielder in left if Grady Sizemore can hit like a corner outfielder while starting in center.

2005

Crisp had a decent year that looks a bit better than it actually was, adding power to his repertoire for the first time (his professional total in homers was 29). However, on the bases he was a hazard to himself and others. Kids: Friends don't let friends run the bases like Covelli Crisp. He's 39-for-62 in his career and should really be greeted with a permanent stop sign, if not flat out tackled by the coach as soon as he reaches first base. He showed surprisingly little instinct for center field and more aptitude for hitting lefties than righties, both of which should be clues as to how he might be better utilized in the future—rather than just knee-jerking him to center and to the top of the order because he's "speedy."

2003

Coco Crisp was the player to be named later in the Chuck Finley trade. The Indians see him as a leadoff hitter, and he’s certainly capable of swiping bases, and his season line in the Eastern League was .310/.372/.437, so he’s got the on-base skills as well. Looking over his minor league career though, he looks like another fourth outfielder in the making, and how many of those are floating around? If he develops some power and his defense improves, he’ll be interesting, but there are more guys like this floating around than potential planets in the Kuiper Belt.

2002

How can you not root for someone with that name? Crisp was tabbed the best hitting prospect in the Carolina League in 2001 by Baseball America, and he was the Cardinals' Minor League Player of the Year. He’s a natural left-handed hitter whom the Cardinals are teaching to switch-hit. Crisp has been noted for his confidence and aggressiveness. If he's going to make it to St. Louis as an outfielder, it's time to get it in gear immediately. For a 21-year-old, a .306 batting average in the Carolina League is good, not great.


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