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Humberto Cota
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 29
6'
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 IND 3A 11 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0.0 .273 .273 .273 -.315 .182 .182 .182 .000 -1.8 0.0
2005 PIT MJ 320 29 20 1 7 43 17 80 0 0 -0.2 .242 .285 .387 -.128 .240 .284 .389 .233 1.5 77-C -1 1.8
2006 PIT MJ 110 5 1 0 0 5 8 26 0 0 -0.4 .190 .248 .200 -.516 .190 .248 .200 .145 -10.4 28-C -1 0.0
2007 IND 3A 104 9 6 0 0 9 7 8 2 0 -0.8 .284 .330 .347 -.044 .260 .308 .312 .226 -2.1 23-C -2 0.3
2007 PIT MJ 18 1 1 0 0 3 2 2 0 0 0.0 .286 .389 .357 .013 .286 .389 .357 .282 0.7 0.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:37 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 203 26 10 1 5 25 15 34 2 1 -0.5 .278 .333 .416 -.040 .278 .333 .424 .260 6.9 51-C -1 1.7
75o 184 19 8 1 3 20 13 31 2 1 -0.4 .255 .308 .369 -.164 .254 .308 .377 .236 0.9 47-C -2 1.1
60o 176 17 8 1 3 19 12 30 2 0 -0.4 .246 .299 .352 -.210 .246 .299 .359 .227 -1.0 45-C -2 0.8
50o 168 15 7 0 2 17 11 29 1 0 -0.4 .238 .289 .335 -.256 .237 .290 .341 .217 -2.8 43-C -3 0.6
40o 158 12 6 0 2 15 10 28 1 0 -0.3 .227 .277 .313 -.314 .226 .278 .319 .204 -4.8 41-C -3 0.4
25o 137 8 5 0 1 12 8 25 1 0 -0.3 .208 .257 .275 -.413 .208 .257 .280 .179 -7.4 37-C -3 0.0
10o 85 3 3 0 0 5 4 16 1 0 -0.1 .173 .218 .204 -.597 .172 .218 .208 .113 -8.3 25-C -3 -0.4
Weighted Mean 148 12 6 0 2 15 10 26 1 0 -0.3 .241 .293 .341 -.240 .240 .293 .348 .220 -0.4 39-C -2 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

35%

50%

34%

39%

1.12

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 29) 148 12 6 0 2 15 10 26 1 0 -0.3 .241 .293 .341 -.240 .240 .293 .348 .220 -0.4 39-C -2 1.0
2009 (age 30) 144 12 5 0 2 14 10 26 1 0 -0.3 .235 .290 .333 -.258 .231 .286 .333 .216 -2.2 38-C -2 0.6
2010 (age 31) 135 10 6 0 2 13 10 23 1 0 -0.2 .230 .289 .329 -.269 .226 .285 .329 .215 -2.0 36-C -3 0.4
2011 (age 32) 120 9 5 0 2 11 9 22 1 0 -0.2 .227 .290 .320 -.280 .223 .286 .320 .213 -1.8 33-C -2 0.3
2012 (age 33) 107 7 4 0 2 10 7 19 1 0 -0.1 .222 .277 .317 -.311 .218 .273 .317 .205 -1.7 30-C -2 0.2
2013 (age 34) 131 10 6 0 2 13 9 25 2 0 -0.1 .230 .288 .339 -.257 .226 .284 .339 .218 -0.8 35-C -1 0.2
2014 (age 35) 109 7 4 0 2 11 8 21 1 0 -0.1 .229 .287 .321 -.284 .226 .283 .321 .210 -0.7 30-C -3 0.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .257 .311 .368
vs RHP .236 .285 .328
Split +.021 +.026 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.0 1.0 1.0 $1,000,000 -2.8 1.0
2009 0.0 0.7 0.6 $700,000 -4.0 0.7
2010 0.0 0.4 0.4 $575,000 -4.4 0.5
2011 0.0 0.4 0.3 $550,000 -3.5 0.0
2012 0.0 0.3 0.2 $500,000 -2.6 0.1
2013 0.0 0.3 0.2 $550,000 -1.3 0.1
2014 0.0 0.2 0.2 $525,000 -1.4 0.1
Peak 2.6 $1,275,000 0.0 2.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .236 .217 .179 .220
2009 .254 .221 .192 .216
2010 .248 .220 .187 .215
2011 .241 .214 .180 .213
2012 .240 .214 .170 .205
2013 .243 .212 .172 .218
2014 .244 .207 .162 .210


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 39% 0% 35%
2009 55% 15% 37%
2010 59% 29% 31%
2011 73% 41% 25%
2012 80% 57% 22%
2013 81% 67% 19%
2014 88% 74% 13%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

58

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Dave Van Gorder 1992 40 11 Harry Chiti 2003 33
2 Mike Matheny 1979 36 12 Jeff Torborg 1971 33
3 Ray Fosse 1981 36 13 Geronimo Gil 1982 33
4 Robert Machado 1970 36 14 Bob Montgomery 1960 33
5 Marc Hill 1973 35 15 Ken Rudolph 2007 32
6 Andy Allanson 1992 35 16 Les Moss 1975 32
7 Randy Knorr 1975 34 17 Ray Katt 1969 32
8 Bob Schmidt 1975 34 18 Mike Difelice 2000 31
9 Duffy Dyer 1957 34 19 Skip Jutze 1979 30
10 Dave Skaggs 1998 33 20 Russ Gibson 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

Cota had just one double to show for 110 plate appearances last year. It was a fluke, of course; Cota hit 20 the year before. Cota`s production is all too typical for Pirate catchers; Don Slaught would probably make a list of the team`s top-five all-time offensive catchers. For a franchise with a history going back to the nineteenth century, that`s amazing. Given the same number of at-bats next year--about all he can expect--if nothing else, Cota should double his doubles several times over.

2006

Has all of his fingers and toes, but miscast as a starting catcher in the wake of the Benito Santiago meltdown. He`s the quintessential catch-and-throw backup unencumbered by anything resembling sustainable offensive skills. Steve Lake, your life is calling.

2005

Cota is ready to step into a more regular role. Unfortunately, he'll initially be stuck behind Benito Santiago, with no reasonable expectation that this represents an improvement. So instead, Cota will have to outshine J.R. House to stick and be in a position to stake a claim to the starter's job by July; with Paulino and Doumit both on the way up, it won't pay to lose that fight. Cota's problem is that his future is now, so his shot at being a regular depends on getting that break in 2005.

2003

In two years at Triple-A Nashville, Cota has displayed line-drive power and a lack of plate discipline, the broken record of the Pirates’ organization. The question is whether he can play defense well enough to be a backup in the majors. He does not throw particularly well, but is mobile and has good hands. With Keith Osik now out of the picture, Cota should earn some big-league meal money in 2003, but he has a pretty low ceiling.

2002

Cota returned from an injury-marred 2000 season to post his best numbers yet, boosted by health and the Pacific Coast League. He showed good pop at the plate and, most importantly, his best glove work as a pro, including some quality plate-blocking to go with his strong throwing arm. That said, he doesn’t walk much, so he could use another half-season in Triple-A before becoming Jason Kendall’s backup.

2001

The Pirates profess to be pleased with Humberto Cota’s progress, even if it looks like regression to these eyes. Cota’s walk rate and strikeout-to-walk ratios collapsed, and he hit for no power. He was young for Double-A, so we can cut him some slack, but the fundamental skills of offense aren’t here. On defense, Cota has quickened his release to second base, in part to compensate for what isn't a great arm. The Bucs are spending a lot of time working with him; he seems to need it.

2000

Cota is an outstanding defensive catcher who has a lot of work to do with the bat. He more than doubled his walk rate after the trade, which could manifest itself in improved offensive production this year. For now, the Pirates view him as their best long-term catching prospect, although that seems optimistic and ignores the presence of Rico Washington and perhaps Craig Wilson.

1999

Cota is a long way from the majors, but any catcher who ranks among the league leaders in offense deserves mention as a prospect. The young Mexican was second in the league in homers and RBI, third in extra base hits and slugging average, and fifth in total bases. Not a bad catcher, either.


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