Mike Cervenak

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:17 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	404	48	24	1	11	52	18	66	2	2	-0.6	.280	.317	.436	-.027	.280	.318	.442	.258	7.1	96-3B -7	0.8
75^o	387	41	22	1	9	48	16	65	2	1	-0.5	.266	.302	.409	-.101	.266	.303	.415	.245	0.2	93-3B -7	0.1
60^o	366	34	19	1	8	42	14	64	2	1	-0.5	.250	.284	.377	-.188	.250	.285	.383	.227	-7.2	88-3B -7	-0.7
50^o	361	32	18	1	7	41	14	63	2	1	-0.5	.246	.280	.370	-.208	.246	.281	.376	.223	-8.8	87-3B -7	-0.9
40^o	354	30	17	1	7	39	13	63	2	1	-0.5	.241	.275	.361	-.234	.241	.275	.366	.217	-10.8	85-3B -7	-1.1
25^o	340	27	16	1	6	36	12	62	1	1	-0.4	.231	.264	.341	-.287	.231	.264	.346	.205	-14.6	82-3B -7	-1.5
10^o	295	17	12	1	4	26	9	57	1	1	-0.3	.204	.233	.289	-.431	.204	.233	.293	.168	-22.6	72-3B -7	-2.5
Weighted Mean	361	33	18	1	7	40	14	63	2	1	-0.5	.248	.282	.373	-.191	.248	.282	.379	.224	-5.7	87-3B -7	-0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	53%	23%	24%	1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 32)	361	33	18	1	7	40	14	63	2	1	-0.5	.248	.282	.373	-.191	.248	.282	.379	.224	-5.7	87-3B -7	-0.7
2010 (age 33)	295	24	15	1	6	32	11	50	2	1	-0.3	.247	.281	.372	-.220	.244	.277	.372	.224	-5.3	72-3B -7	-0.5
2011 (age 34)	226	17	11	1	4	26	9	42	1	1	-0.1	.250	.284	.372	-.213	.247	.280	.372	.225	-2.7	56-3B -6	-0.3
2012 (age 35)	186	12	9	1	3	19	7	32	1	0	-0.1	.245	.278	.359	-.244	.242	.274	.360	.218	-2.2	47-3B -4	-0.2
2013 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.263	.302	.402
vs RHP	.243	.274	.358
Split	+.020	+.028	+.044
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-18.4	-7.0	-0.7	$400,000	-8.3	0.7
2010	-15.2	-7.0	-0.5	$400,000	-7.6	0.4
2011	-11.4	-6.0	-0.3	$400,000	-3.9	0.2
2012	-10.7	-4.0	-0.2	$400,000	-2.7	0.1
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.245	.223	.205	.224
2010	.246	.225	.197	.224
2011	.250	.225	.188	.225
2012	.248	.222	.181	.218
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	24%	0%	32%
2010	51%	27%	22%
2011	74%	47%	22%
2012	86%	66%	15%
2013	93%	82%	15%
2014	96%	90%	6%
2015	100%	95%	3%

52

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Vic Rodriguez	1994	56		11	Ryan Jackson	2004	39
2	Luis Ortiz	2003	54		12	Barbaro Garbey	1989	39
3	Skeeter Barnes	1990	52		13	Bubba Phillips	1961	38
4	Butch Davis	1991	52		14	Pete Suder	1949	34
5	Rick Short	2005	47		15	Billy Hatcher	1993	34
6	Ron Coomer	1999	43		16	Paul Zuvella	1991	34
7	Tracy Woodson	1995	43		17	Rafael Ramirez	1991	33
8	Mike Kinkade	2006	41		18	Billy Gardner	1960	33
9	Dan Meyer	1985	40		19	Mark Grudzielanek	2003	33
10	Pat Meares	2001	40		20	Joe Randa	2002	33

Player Comments

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2005

When a player like Adrian Beltre puts up an MVP-level season way out of character with the rest of his career, teams must decide whether that represents a new standard of performance worth tens of millions of dollars, or an outlier not worth paying for. Considering Cervenak was nearly three years older than Beltre and did it in Double-A, there's a lot less at stake. But on a team sorely lacking good bats, he merits a spring training invite and a shot at a big league job. They already installed him as a starter in the Arizona Fall League, so there's hope.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	FRE	AAA	289	36	17	1	8	53	13	37	0	0	0.7	.283	.311	.442	-.297	.223	.252	.359	.210	-14.5	54-3B -9 10-1B 0	-2.1
2007	NOR	AAA	589	69	25	4	15	78	22	80	2	0	-2.5	.283	.316	.424	-.235	.241	.269	.374	.221	-19.8	96-1B 4 23-3B 1	-1.5
2008	LEH	AAA	482	64	30	2	10	66	13	64	5	4	0.8	.311	.336	.452	-.175	.259	.282	.391	.231	-7.8	34-3B -2 21-1B 0	-1.6
2008	PHI	MLB	13	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	-0.1	.154	.154	.154	-.791	.154	.154	.154	.000	-1.9		-0.2

Historical Stats