Francisco Cervelli

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Yankees Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 Francisco Cervelli 5 11 .244 1 0 1 0 .297 .339 -0.2

1 2009 Total 5 11 .244 1 0 1 0 .297 .339 -0.2

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 1:06 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	420	50	24	1	9	49	37	92	3	1	-0.9	.269	.349	.409	.022	.274	.355	.435	.277	18.6	100-C -3	3.3
75^o	392	38	21	1	7	41	32	91	3	1	-0.8	.247	.323	.368	-.097	.251	.329	.392	.255	6.5	94-C -2	2.1
60^o	367	30	18	1	5	35	28	89	2	1	-0.7	.228	.301	.333	-.198	.232	.306	.355	.234	-2.7	88-C -1	1.3
50^o	358	27	17	1	5	33	27	88	2	1	-0.7	.222	.293	.322	-.231	.226	.299	.343	.227	-5.4	86-C -1	1.0
40^o	353	26	16	1	4	31	26	88	2	1	-0.7	.219	.289	.316	-.250	.222	.294	.336	.223	-6.8	85-C -1	0.8
25^o	338	22	15	1	4	28	24	86	2	1	-0.6	.208	.277	.297	-.306	.212	.281	.316	.210	-10.9	82-C -1	0.4
10^o	319	18	13	1	3	24	22	84	2	1	-0.6	.197	.263	.276	-.367	.201	.267	.294	.195	-14.9	77-C 0	0.0
Weighted Mean	364	30	18	1	5	34	28	88	2	1	-0.7	.229	.302	.334	-.208	.233	.307	.356	.234	-2.7	87-C 0	1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
14%	27%	50%	15%	0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 23)	364	30	18	1	5	34	28	88	2	1	-0.7	.229	.302	.334	-.208	.233	.307	.356	.234	-2.7	87-C 0	1.3
2010 (age 24)	360	30	17	1	5	33	29	85	2	1	-0.5	.231	.305	.335	-.171	.238	.315	.361	.236	-1.1	86-C -2	1.1
2011 (age 25)	342	27	16	1	4	32	27	79	2	1	-0.4	.228	.304	.329	-.182	.235	.314	.354	.234	-1.5	82-C -1	0.9
2012 (age 26)	332	26	16	1	4	32	28	72	2	1	-0.3	.228	.306	.331	-.177	.235	.315	.357	.236	-1.1	80-C -2	0.8
2013 (age 27)	348	27	17	1	4	30	28	75	2	1	-0.2	.229	.304	.329	-.183	.236	.313	.354	.234	-1.0	84-C -1	0.6
2014 (age 28)	323	25	14	0	4	30	27	67	2	1	-0.2	.221	.304	.322	-.198	.228	.313	.346	.232	-1.4	78-C -3	0.4
2015 (age 29)	200	12	8	0	3	18	17	50	1	0	-0.1	.213	.296	.306	-.241	.219	.305	.329	.223	-1.5	51-C -1	0.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.245	.319	.361
vs RHP	.224	.294	.321
Split	+.021	+.025	+.040
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-1.9	0.0	1.3	$1,450,000	0.1	4.1
2010	-1.1	-2.0	1.1	$1,450,000	1.2	5.3
2011	-1.7	-1.0	0.9	$1,325,000	0.7	3.2
2012	-1.2	-2.0	0.8	$1,325,000	0.4	4.3
2013	-2.0	-1.0	0.6	$1,200,000	0.7	3.0
2014	-2.4	-3.0	0.4	$1,050,000	-0.8	1.9
2015	-3.2	-1.0	0.2	$875,000	-0.9	2.2
Peak			5.1	$4,200,000	2.4	21.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.255	.227	.210	.234
2010	.248	.228	.215	.236
2011	.254	.233	.207	.234
2012	.249	.225	.198	.236
2013	.248	.230	.193	.234
2014	.254	.231	.214	.232
2015	.262	.221	.172	.223

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	15%	0%	14%
2010	29%	13%	12%
2011	44%	34%	10%
2012	54%	39%	11%
2013	71%	56%	10%
2014	70%	60%	9%
2015	87%	65%	10%

41

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Omar Fuentes	2003	41		11	Jose Monzon	1992	26
2	Carlos Quintana	1988	32		12	Paul Hodgson	1983	25
3	Jesus Flores	2008	32		13	Angel Rodriguez	1984	25
4	Chad McDonald	1991	29		14	Alex Trevino	1980	24
5	Leroy McKinnis	1996	29		15	Jeff Hearron	1985	24
6	Ramon Estepa	1982	28		16	Dave Sax	1982	24
7	Brian Luderer	2001	27		17	Fausto Cruz	1995	24
8	Mike Stanley	1986	27		18	Tim Arnold	1986	23
9	Sal D'Alessandro	1988	27		19	Charlie O'Brien	1983	23
10	Cayetano Cadahia	1985	26		20	Terence Shoebridge	1981	23

Player Comments

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2008

An unheralded signing out of Venezuela back in 2003, Cervelli started 2007 hot, but cooled rapidly after May. He has doubles power, some sense of the strike zone, and is apparently fearless as he's been hit by 24 pitches in 155 career games. Solid on defense, Cervelli will be a starter rather than a career backup if he can develop a little more home run power.

Pos	Order	Name	PT%	PA	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	VORP
C	8	Francisco Cervelli	5	11	.244	1	0	1	0	.297	.339	-0.2
1		2009 Total	5	11	.244	1	0	1	0	.297	.339	-0.2

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats