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He's probably very handsome. Andrew Carpenter
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 24
6' 3"
230 lbs.
Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 PHL Ind 0 0 0 2 1 3.1 2 0 4 0 67% .333 36 0.65 0.00 0 0.00 11.6 0.0 7.7 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.1
2006 BAT A- 0 0 0 3 3 11.1 10 5 12 0 36% .357 -7 1.35 0.81 1 4.32 15.1 7.6 5.4 1.1 1.2 0.0 0.1
2007 CLR A+ 17 6 1 27 24 163.0 150 53 116 16 41% .275 -19 1.25 3.20 9 6.19 11.0 4.0 3.5 2.1 -9.5 0.0 0.9
2008 CLR A+ 3 3 0 8 8 52.3 44 9 32 2 34% .264 -5 1.01 2.93 4 5.66 8.6 2.2 2.7 0.9 -0.3 0.0 0.6
2008 REA AA 6 8 0 16 16 93.7 114 30 69 13 45% .346 15 1.54 5.67 -8 6.50 12.2 2.9 4.7 1.8 -8.9 0.0 0.2
2008 LEH AAA 0 1 0 1 1 7.0 6 3 5 1 50% .263 -2 1.29 2.57 2 5.68 8.5 4.3 4.3 1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1
2008 PHI MLB 0 0 0 1 0 1.0 1 1 1 0 33% .500 15 2.00 0.00 0 0.00 9.0 9.0 9.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/10/09 3:31 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 9 0 27 27 156.7 170 52 101 24 40% .293 14 1.42 4.82 -1 4.93 9.7 2.6 5.0 1.3 13.2 2.5 2.7
75o 8 9 0 26 26 146.7 168 52 92 25 40% .300 10 1.50 5.35 -1 5.47 10.2 2.8 4.9 1.5 3.3 1.5 1.6
60o 7 9 0 32 23 137.7 165 51 85 26 40% .306 4 1.56 5.84 -1 5.95 10.7 2.9 4.8 1.6 -4.5 0.5 0.7
50o 7 9 0 33 22 132.7 163 51 80 26 40% .310 1 1.61 6.14 -1 6.24 10.9 3.0 4.7 1.7 -8.9 0.0 0.2
40o 6 9 0 33 21 128.7 161 50 77 26 40% .313 0 1.64 6.36 -1 6.46 11.1 3.1 4.6 1.8 -11.9 -0.3 -0.1
25o 5 9 0 33 19 115.7 154 48 67 27 40% .322 -6 1.75 7.14 -1 7.22 11.9 3.3 4.5 2.0 -20.9 -1.3 -1.1
10o 4 8 0 32 15 95.3 140 44 51 26 41% .337 -14 1.92 8.45 0 8.49 13.0 3.7 4.2 2.4 -31.2 -2.4 -2.4
Weighted Mean 7 10 0 36 22 140.7 173 54 85 28 40% .310 1 1.61 6.13 -1 6.24 10.9 3.0 4.7 1.7 -8.5 0.0 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

7%

40%

25%

13%

1.11

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 24) 7 10 0 36 22 140.7 173 54 85 28 40% .310 1 1.61 6.13 -1 6.24 10.9 3.0 4.7 1.7 -8.5 0.0 0.0
2010 (age 25) 6 8 0 38 16 115.7 138 42 76 22 40% .308 0 1.55 6.03 -1 6.16 10.6 2.9 5.1 1.7 -6.0 0.0 0.1
2011 (age 26) 5 7 0 32 14 95.7 124 38 59 21 40% .321 -4 1.69 6.18 0 6.19 11.6 3.1 4.8 1.9 -5.5 0.0 0.0
2012 (age 27) 4 6 0 31 11 86.7 106 30 59 16 40% .321 1 1.57 5.83 0 5.93 10.9 2.7 5.3 1.6 -2.2 0.2 0.2
2013 (age 28) 4 5 1 29 8 71.3 87 23 51 14 39% .317 2 1.54 5.75 0 5.81 10.8 2.6 5.5 1.7 -0.9 0.2 0.2
2014 (age 29) 4 5 1 33 8 77.3 89 23 55 14 40% .307 3 1.45 5.32 0 5.41 10.2 2.4 5.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.4
2015 (age 30) 3 3 0 21 5 48.7 56 16 36 9 38% .308 3 1.47 5.26 0 5.34 10.3 2.6 5.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .292 .384 .508
vs RHB .281 .344 .458
Split +.011 +.040 +.051
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 0.0 $400,000 -10.5 0.6
2010 0.1 $400,000 -7.6 1.5
2011 0.0 $400,000 -6.9 2.4
2012 0.2 $525,000 -3.2 3.2
2013 0.2 $725,000 -1.6 2.1
2014 0.4 $1,100,000 0.6 2.4
2015 0.4 $1,175,000 0.9 2.1
Peak 1.4 $800,000 1.5 13.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 5.47 6.24 7.22 6.24
2010 5.16 6.17 7.49 6.16
2011 5.38 6.47 7.68 6.19
2012 5.04 6.56 8.53 5.93
2013 5.28 6.16 7.71 5.81
2014 4.86 5.68 6.87 5.41
2015 4.91 5.83 7.19 5.34


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 13% 0% 7%
2010 28% 6% 12%
2011 33% 12% 13%
2012 53% 24% 16%
2013 63% 44% 10%
2014 69% 56% 11%
2015 78% 60% 8%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

70

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Zack Segovia 2007 68 11 Curt Schilling 1990 56
2 Kent Bottenfield 1992 63 12 Eric Schmidt 1986 56
3 Joe Slusarski 1991 62 13 Bobby Thigpen 1987 55
4 Brian Sackinsky 1995 61 14 Jason Windsor 2006 54
5 Brian Sikorski 1998 61 15 Darrell Goedhart 1994 54
6 Scott Roberts 1983 60 16 Todd Burns 1987 53
7 John Lackey 2002 59 17 Ryan Hancock 1995 53
8 Ryan Nye 1997 57 18 Garrett Mock 2007 53
9 Steven Shell 2007 57 19 Chris Gissell 2002 53
10 Eric Ireland 2001 57 20 Hector Ambriz 2008 53

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