Shawn Camp

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 7:32 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	2	3	49	0	54.0	49	16	38	5	53%	.272	0	1.21	2.97	3.15	2.91	7.9	2.4	5.4	0.8	16.9	1.4	2.1
75^o	2	2	2	43	0	47.7	51	15	33	5	53%	.301	-4	1.37	4.08	4.02	3.98	9.1	2.6	5.4	1.0	8.7	0.7	1.3
60^o	2	2	2	41	0	45.0	51	15	31	5	53%	.314	-6	1.45	4.62	4.44	4.50	9.7	2.7	5.4	1.1	5.3	0.4	0.9
50^o	2	2	1	39	0	42.3	51	14	29	5	53%	.325	-8	1.52	5.11	4.83	4.97	10.3	2.8	5.4	1.1	2.5	0.2	0.7
40^o	2	2	1	37	0	40.7	50	14	28	5	53%	.333	-10	1.58	5.48	5.12	5.32	10.6	2.9	5.4	1.2	0.7	0.0	0.5
25^o	1	2	1	34	0	37.7	50	14	26	5	53%	.347	-12	1.66	6.08	5.59	5.90	11.3	3.0	5.4	1.3	-2.1	-0.2	0.2
10^o	1	2	0	25	0	27.7	44	11	19	5	53%	.392	-20	1.99	8.41	7.40	8.10	13.8	3.3	5.3	1.6	-9.1	-0.8	-0.5
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	36	0	40.3	46	13	28	5	53%	.316	-7	1.47	4.74	4.52	4.62	9.9	2.7	5.4	1.1	4.2	0.3	0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
41%	70%	16%	35%	1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 32)	2	2	1	36	0	40.3	46	13	28	5	53%	.316	-7	1.47	4.74	4.52	4.62	9.9	2.7	5.4	1.1	4.2	0.3	0.8
2009 (age 33)	2	2	1	37	0	41.0	49	13	28	4	53%	.334	-7	1.51	4.71	4.57	4.60	10.4	2.5	5.4	0.9	2.5	0.3	0.5
2010 (age 34)	2	2	1	33	0	35.7	43	11	25	3	53%	.337	-6	1.52	4.58	4.53	4.47	10.4	2.6	5.5	0.8	1.7	0.3	0.3
2011 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.282	.368	.441
vs RHB	.261	.324	.383
Split	+.020	+.044	+.058
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.8	$1,600,000	4.6	2.4
2009	0.5	$1,075,000	2.7	1.1
2010	0.3	$850,000	1.9	0.7
2011	0.2	$575,000	0.7	0.4
2012	0.2	$850,000	1.8	1.7
2013	0.1	$675,000	1.1	1.0
2014	0.1	$650,000	0.9	0.6
Peak	2.2	$2,950,000	11.7	7.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.98	4.97	5.90	4.62
2009	3.96	4.75	6.28	4.60
2010	3.97	4.76	6.10	4.47
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	35%	0%	41%
2009	62%	41%	38%
2010	80%	61%	26%
2011	84%	74%	19%
2012	89%	83%	19%
2013	91%	87%	15%
2014	92%	90%	13%

53

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Chuck Taylor	1974	56		11	George Zuverink	1957	39
2	Ken Burkhart	1949	54		12	John Morris	1974	39
3	Matt Whiteside	2000	51		13	Mike Perez	1997	38
4	Travis Driskill	2004	48		14	Mark Petkovsek	1998	38
5	Buddy Groom	1998	43		15	Earl Johnson	1951	37
6	Sean Lowe	2003	42		16	Mike Munoz	1998	37
7	Larry Andersen	1985	42		17	Tom Burgmeier	1976	36
8	Larry Sherry	1968	41		18	Steve Crawford	1990	36
9	Jim Acker	1991	40		19	Elias Sosa	1983	36
10	Don Lee	1966	40		20	Tom Murphy	1978	36

Player Comments

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2007

Camp`s your basic veteran bullpen arm, a strike-thrower with good command who shows up, keeps the ball down, and goes home. In fact, he was roughly league average in just about every way possible last year. There was but one exceptional thing about him: He set the Devil Rays` franchise record for pitching appearances in a single season with 75. Thrilling.

2006

A middle reliever who succeeds by throwing strikes and keeping the ball down, Camp`s ERA ballooned more than 2.5 runs last year despite essentially the same performance as in 2004 regarding homers, strikeouts, and walks. The difference stemmed almost entirely from what happened to balls in play. If you`re going to send out a historically bad defense, don`t compound the problem with pitchers that pitch to contact. Camp was released. After signing with Tampa Bay, his world tour isn`t turning out any better than your garage band`s would.

2005

A nifty little find as an NRI, Camp had a long and lackluster minor league career primarily because he was essentially a one-pitch pitcher. Cumberland taught him a slider in the spring, Camp mastered it, and with a new weapon to match a very good sinking fastball�voila! A fine middle reliever was born. His overall numbers were brought down by a home-run rate which was flukishly high given Camp's excellent groundball/flyball ratio of 2.16.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	OMA	3A	3	6	1	21	7	67.7	71	22	42	9	49%	.300	-16	1.37	3.86	5.28	5.06	9.4	3.2	3.8	1.4	3.8		1.7
2005	KCA	MJ	1	4	0	29	0	49.0	69	13	28	4	56%	.369	-10	1.67	6.43	5.42	6.48	11.2	2.3	4.9	0.7	-8.8	-1.4	0.4
2006	TBA	MJ	7	4	4	75	0	75.0	93	19	53	9	57%	.357	-3	1.49	4.68	5.39	4.81	10.5	2.2	6.2	1.0	7.8	0.8	2.3
2007	DUR	3A	0	1	4	12	0	15.3	13	2	16	0	61%	.325	16	0.98	1.18	3.69	1.88	8.8	1.3	6.9	0.0	5.9		1.0
2007	TBA	MJ	0	3	0	50	0	40.0	63	18	36	7	57%	.438	-12	2.03	7.20	9.12	7.30	12.6	3.5	7.3	1.5	-6.3	-0.9	0.0

Historical Stats