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John Buck
Kansas City Royals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 28
6' 3"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Royals Depth Chart (updated: 06-30)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 John Buck 35 118 .232 11 4 14 0 .303 .393 1.0
1   2009 Total 35 118 .232 11 4 14 0 .303 .393 1.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 KCA MLB 409 37 21 1 11 50 26 84 0 2 -2.2 .245 .306 .396 -.163 .236 .300 .388 .237 -2.1 106-C -1 0.7
2007 KCA MLB 399 41 18 0 18 48 36 92 0 1 -0.1 .222 .308 .429 -.118 .214 .303 .431 .252 7.5 104-C 2 1.7
2008 KCA MLB 418 48 23 1 9 48 38 96 0 3 -3.2 .224 .304 .365 -.182 .223 .306 .372 .236 -2.7 107-C -5 0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:24 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 334 44 20 1 14 46 32 73 0 1 -1.6 .274 .352 .488 .100 .270 .350 .503 .290 21.1 81-C -2 3.1
75o 304 32 16 1 10 38 26 68 0 1 -1.4 .245 .319 .424 -.063 .242 .318 .437 .260 7.7 74-C -2 1.8
60o 287 27 13 1 9 34 24 65 0 1 -1.2 .231 .303 .392 -.146 .228 .301 .404 .244 1.7 70-C -2 1.2
50o 283 25 13 1 9 33 23 64 0 1 -1.2 .228 .298 .384 -.167 .225 .297 .396 .240 0.3 69-C -2 1.0
40o 274 23 12 0 8 31 22 62 0 1 -1.1 .220 .289 .367 -.210 .217 .288 .379 .231 -2.4 67-C -2 0.7
25o 265 20 11 0 7 29 20 60 0 0 -1.1 .213 .281 .351 -.252 .210 .279 .362 .222 -4.9 65-C -2 0.4
10o 225 13 7 0 4 21 15 53 0 0 -0.8 .186 .247 .289 -.411 .183 .245 .298 .183 -12.5 56-C -2 -0.5
Weighted Mean 281 26 13 1 9 33 23 63 0 1 -1.2 .232 .303 .393 -.127 .229 .301 .406 .244 2.4 69-C -1 1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

28%

47%

24%

39%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 28) 281 26 13 1 9 33 23 63 0 1 -1.2 .232 .303 .393 -.127 .229 .301 .406 .244 2.4 69-C -1 1.1
2010 (age 29) 271 24 13 1 7 32 22 61 0 0 -1.0 .234 .304 .382 -.139 .234 .306 .399 .242 1.1 67-C 0 1.1
2011 (age 30) 262 22 12 0 7 29 23 59 0 0 -0.8 .225 .302 .370 -.165 .225 .304 .386 .238 -0.3 64-C -2 0.7
2012 (age 31) 231 19 10 0 6 26 21 52 0 0 -0.6 .226 .304 .375 -.155 .226 .306 .391 .240 0.1 57-C -2 0.6
2013 (age 32) 232 19 11 0 7 27 20 53 0 0 -0.5 .226 .302 .383 -.148 .226 .304 .400 .241 0.3 58-C -3 0.4
2014 (age 33) 204 16 9 0 5 23 19 43 0 0 -0.4 .226 .311 .367 -.153 .226 .313 .383 .241 0.1 51-C -3 0.3
2015 (age 34) 230 20 9 0 7 29 22 52 0 0 -0.3 .224 .307 .386 -.136 .224 .309 .403 .244 0.5 57-C -2 0.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .247 .325 .419
vs RHP .227 .294 .378
Split +.020 +.030 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 3.0 -1.0 1.1 $1,350,000 0.8 5.5
2010 2.2 0.0 1.1 $1,425,000 1.0 3.9
2011 1.0 -2.0 0.7 $1,050,000 -1.5 2.7
2012 1.3 -2.0 0.6 $1,025,000 -1.2 2.6
2013 1.5 -3.0 0.4 $950,000 -1.1 2.3
2014 1.3 -3.0 0.3 $875,000 -1.2 1.1
2015 2.4 -2.0 0.3 $1,050,000 -0.2 1.8
Peak 4.2 $3,450,000 0.0 18.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .260 .240 .222 .244
2010 .257 .237 .205 .242
2011 .265 .230 .203 .238
2012 .266 .232 .212 .240
2013 .261 .224 .202 .241
2014 .264 .230 .195 .241
2015 .271 .229 .170 .244


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 39% 0% 28%
2010 50% 10% 22%
2011 56% 23% 23%
2012 67% 33% 21%
2013 79% 48% 20%
2014 84% 54% 18%
2015 83% 64% 18%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

60

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Charles Johnson 2000 67 11 George Mitterwald 1974 51
2 Del Rice 1951 58 12 John Bateman 1969 50
3 Harry Chiti 1961 57 13 Earl Williams 1977 48
4 John Orsino 1967 55 14 Chad Moeller 2004 47
5 Bob Tillman 1966 55 15 Jason LaRue 2003 47
6 Tim Laudner 1987 54 16 Jason Varitek 2001 47
7 Nelson Santovenia 1990 53 17 Dave Ross 2006 46
8 Barry Foote 1981 53 18 Jody Davis 1985 46
9 Joe Oliver 1994 52 19 A.J. Hinch 2003 46
10 Chris Widger 2000 52 20 Bob Schmidt 1962 46

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

For the first two months of the 2007 season, Buck was a candidate for Breakout of the Year. He made some alterations to his swing in spring training, incorporating a timing mechanism with his front foot, and on June 4th was hitting .288/.383/.600 with ten homers in just 40 games. The Royals, apparently channeling the wisdom of the Allard Baird years, then became concerned that the new approach impaired Buck's ability to hit with men on base (for the year, he hit just .183 with five home runs when runners were on), so they had Buck return to his old approach. Soon enough, he couldn't hit in any situation, going .185/.264/.333 the rest of the way. Repeat step one without step two, and the raw material for a true, sustained breakout is still there.

2007

If nothing else, he`s consistent--take a look at his major league EqAs. If you squint, though, you can see Buck making some slight progress. His walks went up, his strikeouts went down, and . . . okay, that`s about all the progress he`s made. He`s a decent defensive catcher, and he turns 27 this summer, so there`s some reason for a modest brand of optimism, even if he`s disappointed thus far. Still, it`s telling that the Royals spent $2.5 million to bring Jason LaRue in to challenge Buck the starter`s job.

2006

He`s got pop, and he threw out 34% of opposing base stealers last year, but he`s also got a lifetime OBP of .284. It`s possible to make up for a .284 OBP in other ways, but it generally requires acts described in books of Scripture. The Royals point to his .321/.341/.568 line from September 1st on as proof that he`s ready to turn the corner. There are some similarities between Buck and Brandon Inge, whose career-high in OBP stood at .266 after three seasons and didn`t break out until he was 27. This is one instance where the Royals` lack of talent may be a blessing; they`ve got nothing to lose by giving Buck another season as the full-time catcher.

2005

Consider Buck a lesson in not getting too worked up over first impressions. In his first six weeks in the major leagues, Buck looked about as bad as any player has, ever, hitting .149/.222/.203 in his first 74 AB, and his bat speed showed all the blazing quickness of continental drift. It turns out hitting coach Jeff Pentland was tinkering with his swing; from July 31 on, Buck hit .274/.308/.524. His K/BB ratio was troubling, especially since that ratio did not improve in concert with his power numbers. But his power is legit, and it's nearly impossible for a catcher to hit 20 homers and not have value. He's a solid second player from the Beltran trade.


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