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John Buck
Kansas City Royals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 27
6' 3"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Royals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 John Buck 70 444 .238 41 13 56 1 .309 .396 5.2
1   2008 Total 70 444 .238 41 13 56 1 .309 .396 5.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 KCA MJ 430 40 21 1 12 47 23 94 2 2 -0.5 .242 .287 .389 -.142 .246 .301 .405 .242 2.2 112-C -1 2.5
2006 KCA MJ 409 37 21 1 11 50 26 84 0 2 -1.3 .245 .306 .396 -.146 .245 .312 .406 .247 -1.0 106-C -1 2.6
2007 KCA MJ 399 41 18 0 18 48 36 92 0 1 0.4 .222 .308 .429 -.086 .223 .313 .449 .261 7.8 104-C 3 3.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:27 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 367 49 21 1 15 53 32 77 1 1 -1.0 .280 .354 .491 .120 .275 .350 .504 .293 23.6 88-C -1 4.1
75o 343 39 18 1 12 47 28 74 1 1 -0.8 .260 .332 .445 .007 .255 .329 .457 .273 12.9 83-C -1 3.1
60o 324 32 16 1 10 42 26 71 1 1 -0.8 .244 .315 .410 -.077 .239 .312 .421 .257 5.7 78-C -2 2.3
50o 314 29 15 1 9 40 25 69 1 1 -0.7 .236 .307 .392 -.121 .232 .304 .402 .248 2.2 76-C -2 2.0
40o 300 25 14 1 8 36 23 67 1 1 -0.7 .226 .295 .368 -.178 .221 .292 .378 .236 -1.9 73-C -2 1.5
25o 263 17 10 0 5 29 19 60 1 1 -0.6 .201 .268 .312 -.314 .197 .265 .320 .206 -10.2 65-C -3 0.5
10o 192 7 6 0 2 16 13 47 1 0 -0.4 .164 .226 .230 -.511 .161 .224 .236 .146 -16.5 49-C -3 -0.5
Weighted Mean 315 29 15 1 9 40 25 69 1 1 -0.7 .238 .309 .396 -.111 .233 .306 .407 .249 3.7 76-C -1 2.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

27%

45%

36%

38%

1.17

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 27) 315 29 15 1 9 40 25 69 1 1 -0.7 .238 .309 .396 -.111 .233 .306 .407 .249 3.7 76-C -1 2.7
2009 (age 28) 283 26 13 1 10 38 22 60 1 1 -0.6 .242 .312 .411 -.084 .241 .313 .429 .254 4.2 69-C -2 2.0
2010 (age 29) 251 21 12 0 7 32 19 55 1 1 -0.6 .243 .311 .396 -.103 .242 .313 .414 .251 2.8 62-C 0 1.9
2011 (age 30) 253 20 11 0 7 31 20 54 1 0 -0.5 .232 .302 .375 -.153 .230 .304 .392 .241 0.0 62-C -1 1.3
2012 (age 31) 225 17 10 0 6 27 17 47 1 1 -0.4 .237 .304 .382 -.138 .236 .305 .400 .243 0.5 56-C -2 1.0
2013 (age 32) 206 15 8 0 5 25 18 46 0 0 -0.3 .226 .307 .364 -.163 .225 .309 .380 .240 -0.2 52-C -2 0.7
2014 (age 33) 190 13 8 0 5 23 17 41 0 0 -0.2 .231 .309 .369 -.150 .230 .311 .385 .242 0.1 48-C -3 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .253 .329 .421
vs RHP .234 .300 .381
Split +.020 +.029 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.7 2.1 2.7 $3,850,000 3.2 8.1
2009 0.7 1.3 2.0 $2,925,000 3.3 8.1
2010 0.5 1.4 1.9 $3,050,000 3.5 5.9
2011 0.3 1.0 1.3 $1,575,000 -0.5 3.0
2012 0.3 0.8 1.0 $1,350,000 -0.3 2.7
2013 0.2 0.6 0.7 $1,025,000 -0.9 2.8
2014 0.1 0.5 0.6 $975,000 -0.7 1.9
Peak 9.7 $10,100,000 8.2 30.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .273 .248 .206 .249
2009 .268 .249 .220 .254
2010 .263 .239 .217 .251
2011 .256 .234 .200 .241
2012 .256 .240 .211 .243
2013 .267 .222 .198 .240
2014 .252 .225 .204 .242


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 38% 0% 27%
2009 41% 7% 22%
2010 50% 10% 18%
2011 59% 24% 10%
2012 70% 33% 7%
2013 79% 50% 12%
2014 88% 56% 9%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

64

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Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Todd Pratt 1992 40 11 Joe Oliver 2003 33
2 Charles Johnson 1979 36 12 Bob Schmidt 1971 33
3 Randy Knorr 1981 36 13 Ozzie Virgil 1982 33
4 John Bateman 1970 36 14 Bob Melvin 1960 33
5 Bob Tillman 1973 35 15 George Mitterwald 2007 32
6 Nelson Santovenia 1992 35 16 Dave Duncan 1975 32
7 Barry Foote 1975 34 17 Harry Chiti 1969 32
8 Jeff Tackett 1975 34 18 Hank Foiles 2000 31
9 John Orsino 1957 34 19 Duffy Dyer 1979 30
10 Jody Davis 1998 33 20 Bobby Hughes 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

If nothing else, he`s consistent--take a look at his major league EqAs. If you squint, though, you can see Buck making some slight progress. His walks went up, his strikeouts went down, and . . . okay, that`s about all the progress he`s made. He`s a decent defensive catcher, and he turns 27 this summer, so there`s some reason for a modest brand of optimism, even if he`s disappointed thus far. Still, it`s telling that the Royals spent $2.5 million to bring Jason LaRue in to challenge Buck the starter`s job.

2006

He`s got pop, and he threw out 34% of opposing base stealers last year, but he`s also got a lifetime OBP of .284. It`s possible to make up for a .284 OBP in other ways, but it generally requires acts described in books of Scripture. The Royals point to his .321/.341/.568 line from September 1st on as proof that he`s ready to turn the corner. There are some similarities between Buck and Brandon Inge, whose career-high in OBP stood at .266 after three seasons and didn`t break out until he was 27. This is one instance where the Royals` lack of talent may be a blessing; they`ve got nothing to lose by giving Buck another season as the full-time catcher.

2005

Consider Buck a lesson in not getting too worked up over first impressions. In his first six weeks in the major leagues, Buck looked about as bad as any player has, ever, hitting .149/.222/.203 in his first 74 AB, and his bat speed showed all the blazing quickness of continental drift. It turns out hitting coach Jeff Pentland was tinkering with his swing; from July 31 on, Buck hit .274/.308/.524. His K/BB ratio was troubling, especially since that ratio did not improve in concert with his power numbers. But his power is legit, and it's nearly impossible for a catcher to hit 20 homers and not have value. He's a solid second player from the Beltran trade.


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