Dave Borkowski

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:31 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	2	2	39	0	46.3	43	16	31	5	46%	.266	1	1.27	3.12	0	3.23	8.3	2.7	5.2	1.0	12.9	1.0	1.7
75^o	2	2	1	37	0	44.0	44	16	30	5	46%	.280	0	1.34	3.74	0	3.87	8.8	2.8	5.2	1.1	9.0	0.7	1.3
60^o	2	2	1	34	0	40.7	44	15	28	6	45%	.296	-2	1.44	4.53	0	4.70	9.6	2.9	5.2	1.2	4.4	0.3	0.8
50^o	2	2	1	33	0	39.0	44	14	26	6	45%	.305	-4	1.49	5.00	0	5.18	10.1	2.9	5.2	1.3	2.0	0.1	0.5
40^o	2	2	1	31	0	36.7	44	14	25	6	45%	.317	-5	1.56	5.63	0	5.83	10.7	3.0	5.2	1.4	-0.8	-0.1	0.2
25^o	2	2	1	28	0	34.3	43	13	23	6	45%	.330	-7	1.64	6.33	0	6.56	11.3	3.0	5.2	1.5	-3.6	-0.3	-0.1
10^o	1	2	0	19	0	23.7	36	10	16	5	45%	.369	-14	1.91	9.71	0	10.17	13.5	3.2	5.2	1.9	-12.4	-1.0	-1.0
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	30	0	35.7	39	13	24	5	45%	.300	-3	1.46	4.79	0	4.97	9.8	2.9	5.2	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
33%	51%	25%	34%	1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 32)	2	2	1	30	0	35.7	39	13	24	5	45%	.300	-3	1.46	4.79	0	4.97	9.8	2.9	5.2	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.5
2010 (age 33)	2	2	1	31	0	37.0	42	14	25	6	46%	.310	-5	1.52	5.05	0	5.23	10.2	2.9	5.3	1.3	1.1	0.1	0.3
2011 (age 34)	2	2	1	29	0	33.7	41	12	23	4	44%	.327	-4	1.57	4.92	0	5.07	10.8	2.8	5.2	1.1	0.9	0.2	0.2
2012 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.277	.370	.447
vs RHB	.257	.322	.402
Split	+.019	+.048	+.045
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.5	$950,000	2.4	1.4
2010	0.3	$675,000	0.8	0.5
2011	0.2	$650,000	0.7	0.3
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	1.3	$1,200,000	4.8	3.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	3.87	5.18	6.56	4.97
2010	4.72	5.43	7.29	5.23
2011	4.44	5.36	6.04	5.07
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	34%	0%	33%
2010	58%	38%	19%
2011	78%	62%	12%
2012	85%	77%	14%
2013	91%	87%	14%
2014	95%	92%	8%
2015	97%	92%	6%

50

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Tom Buskey	1979	61		11	Juan Acevedo	2002	39
2	Matt Whiteside	1999	57		12	John Montague	1980	38
3	Rich Monteleone	1995	52		13	Mike Perez	1997	38
4	Ken Burkhart	1949	52		14	Ron Herbel	1970	37
5	Rodney Myers	2001	50		15	Harry Dorish	1953	36
6	Chuck Taylor	1974	47		16	Terry Mathews	1997	35
7	Larry Andersen	1985	45		17	Brooks Kieschnick	2004	35
8	Jose Bautista	1996	43		18	Tom Hume	1985	34
9	Jim Poole	1998	42		19	Shawn Camp	2008	31
10	George Zuverink	1957	39		20	Johnny Kucab	1952	31

Player Comments

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2008

For two seasons, Borkowski has occupied the second-lowest rung in the Astros' bullpen. He pitches when they trail, or when the game is in extra innings, or occasionally when they're ahead by a bunch or if a starter gets pulled early. It's a bit unusual for one guy to hold that job for two straight years, and even Borkowski started getting some holds late last year. Still, he's a replacement-level talent with no upside.

2007

While it wasn`t one of the season`s more exciting developments, Borkowski found a home doing middle relief work in the Astros bullpen in 2006, and acquitted himself nicely. He seemed to relish pitching at Minute Maid, holding hitters to .217/.266/.333 there against .289/.349/.526 on the road. As long as he continues to keep the ball down--only 20 percent of his pitches were above the belt last season--he should remain useful.

2005

Borkowski found himself trading places with Matt Riley after the latter had a meltdown in Philly. He made the most of it for a half-dozen starts, but the league soon figured out that he was the same guy who came in with a 6.93 career ERA. Unless the Orioles run into as many pitching injuries in 2005 as they did in 2004, he'll be back in Triple-A.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	ROU	AAA	0	1	3	6	0	7.0	6	2	6	1	68%	.294	-2	1.14	2.57	1	4.50	10.5	3.0	6.0	1.5	0.7	0.0	0.3
2006	HOU	MLB	3	2	0	40	0	71.0	70	23	52	8	49%	.292	1	1.31	4.69	3	4.76	8.9	2.6	6.0	0.9	9.6	0.6	1.2
2007	HOU	MLB	5	3	1	64	0	71.7	76	34	63	8	45%	.329	15	1.53	5.15	-6	4.54	8.8	3.7	7.2	0.9	0.9	0.8	1.7
2008	ROU	AAA	2	2	2	27	1	40.7	40	7	26	3	48%	.301	-11	1.15	2.43	3	4.19	9.5	1.9	3.7	0.9	6.1	0.0	1.1
2008	HOU	MLB	0	2	0	26	0	36.0	54	14	24	9	43%	.369	1	1.89	7.50	-8	5.05	13.4	3.0	5.3	2.3	-7.6	-0.5	0.5

Historical Stats