Joe Blanton

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Starter-2 Joe Blanton 66 10 4.26 1.25 65 18 8 46 4 3 0 7.3

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:30 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	13	7	0	29	29	190.7	189	50	139	19	46%	.290	22	1.25	3.56	-1	3.70	8.8	2.1	5.7	0.9	43.3	5.8	5.9
75^o	12	8	0	28	28	179.3	184	49	128	19	46%	.295	20	1.30	3.91	-1	4.06	9.1	2.1	5.5	0.9	33.2	4.7	4.8
60^o	11	8	0	27	27	166.3	177	47	116	19	46%	.301	18	1.35	4.30	-1	4.47	9.5	2.2	5.4	1.0	22.9	3.6	3.7
50^o	10	8	0	26	26	157.0	172	46	108	19	46%	.305	17	1.39	4.59	-1	4.77	9.7	2.3	5.3	1.1	16.3	2.8	3.0
40^o	9	8	0	25	25	152.0	169	46	103	19	46%	.307	16	1.41	4.75	-1	4.93	9.9	2.4	5.3	1.1	12.9	2.5	2.6
25^o	8	8	0	24	24	138.3	160	43	91	19	45%	.313	13	1.47	5.20	-1	5.39	10.3	2.5	5.1	1.2	4.4	1.5	1.6
10^o	5	8	0	27	17	104.0	132	36	64	17	45%	.327	1	1.62	6.38	0	6.60	11.3	2.8	4.7	1.4	-11.3	-0.4	-0.3
Weighted Mean	11	9	0	28	28	174.0	188	50	120	21	46%	.303	17	1.37	4.47	-1	4.64	9.6	2.3	5.4	1.1	18.2	3.4	2.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
14%	55%	16%	16%	0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 28)	11	9	0	28	28	174.0	188	50	120	21	46%	.303	17	1.37	4.47	-1	4.64	9.6	2.3	5.4	1.1	18.2	3.4	2.9
2010 (age 29)	9	8	0	25	25	152.3	166	45	101	18	46%	.302	14	1.38	4.53	-1	4.71	9.7	2.3	5.1	1.1	14.6	2.9	2.4
2011 (age 30)	9	8	0	25	25	152.0	171	45	101	18	45%	.310	14	1.42	4.69	-1	4.87	10.0	2.3	5.2	1.1	11.2	2.6	2.0
2012 (age 31)	9	9	0	35	23	154.7	170	48	101	21	46%	.301	8	1.41	4.72	-1	4.90	9.8	2.4	5.0	1.2	10.4	2.4	1.9
2013 (age 32)	7	8	0	33	18	126.3	145	38	80	17	45%	.309	5	1.44	4.89	-1	5.06	10.2	2.3	4.9	1.2	6.5	1.6	1.3
2014 (age 33)	5	6	1	32	12	94.0	109	30	57	13	45%	.308	0	1.47	5.08	0	5.26	10.3	2.5	4.7	1.2	3.5	0.9	0.9
2015 (age 34)	4	5	0	26	9	73.0	87	22	47	11	44%	.316	1	1.50	5.32	0	5.48	10.6	2.4	5.0	1.3	1.2	0.5	0.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.271	.347	.426
vs RHB	.264	.324	.417
Split	+.007	+.023	+.008
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	2.9	$4,900,000	16.5	17.0
2010	2.4	$4,175,000	13.1	13.8
2011	2.0	$3,475,000	9.7	10.1
2012	1.9	$3,525,000	9.0	10.6
2013	1.3	$2,525,000	5.3	6.4
2014	0.9	$1,800,000	2.5	4.5
2015	0.5	$1,325,000	0.4	2.8
Peak	11.3	$15,250,000	53.7	62.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.06	4.77	5.39	4.64
2010	4.12	4.81	5.70	4.71
2011	4.35	4.80	5.92	4.87
2012	4.51	4.97	6.68	4.90
2013	4.59	5.35	6.65	5.06
2014	4.55	5.60	6.69	5.26
2015	4.53	5.61	6.97	5.48

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	16%	0%	14%
2010	27%	8%	20%
2011	33%	16%	10%
2012	41%	14%	13%
2013	50%	25%	10%
2014	59%	37%	5%
2015	65%	48%	5%

58

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Danny Cox	1988	73		11	John Burkett	1993	47
2	Bobby Jones	1998	56		12	Chris Bosio	1991	46
3	Jose Mesa	1994	53		13	Eric King	1992	46
4	Dick Fowler	1949	53		14	Joey Hamilton	1999	44
5	Livan Hernandez	2003	53		15	Mike Moore	1988	44
6	Carl Pavano	2004	53		16	Sidney Ponson	2005	44
7	Doc Medich	1977	52		17	Don Cardwell	1964	42
8	Jim Clancy	1984	49		18	Ron Robinson	1990	42
9	Jason Jennings	2007	49		19	Mike Morgan	1988	41
10	Mark Clark	1996	48		20	Scott Erickson	1996	41

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Is Blanton underrated or overrated? He will always give up a good number of hits-he just doesn't have the stuff to miss very many bats-but he only issues about one walk per game, and because he doesn't go deep into counts, he goes deep into the games. He also never misses a turn on the bump. A pitcher who can consistently give you 200-plus innings of average- to slightly above-average performance, as Blanton can, is enormously valuable. He might be too overrated to be underrated, but in the minds of those who think he's the former, he's actually the latter.

2007

A control pitcher like Blanton will always be highly subject to the vagaries of luck on balls in play, and, over the last two seasons, Blanton`s luck has swung from one extreme to the other. As long as he can keep his walks down, limit home runs, and stay healthy, he`ll be a league-average starting pitcher, and at his salary there`s absolutely nothing wrong with that. Actually, these days there would be absolutely nothing wrong with that if he were making twenty times his salary. It`s funny to see Carl Pavano among Blanton`s comparables, above--Blanton works for a living.

2006

Blanton locates well, has the classic oversized pitcher`s butt, and his mechanics are clean. He improved as the season wore on, generating more strikeouts with breaking stuff down the zone. He`s not particularly exciting to watch, with a low-90s fastball and a league average slider/curve combo, and his strikeout rate does not really say `long career,` but those are fairly trivial complaints.

2005

It was almost a good year, and the problem is that at least a good year was expected of him. Blanton stayed healthy, he was mixing and matching his solid slider and curve with his low-90s heat, but he just never seemed to get into a real groove on the mound. The PCL isn't the best place for a starter to get on top of his game, but neither are the majors for a rookie. He has the command to pick his strikeout rate back up a notch and become the rotation horse that he's supposed to be, but Beane's wholesale acquisition of other people's pitching prospects this winter can't be considered an endorsement of Blanton as a sure thing.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	OAK	MLB	16	12	0	32	31	194.3	241	58	107	17	44%	.341	38	1.54	4.82	-21	4.06	11.0	2.7	4.4	0.8	18.9	2.9	6.4
2007	OAK	MLB	14	10	0	34	34	230.0	240	40	140	16	49%	.304	5	1.22	3.95	8	4.52	9.4	1.5	4.8	0.7	45.6	5.8	5.2
2008	OAK	MLB	5	12	0	20	20	127.0	145	35	62	12	47%	.304	16	1.42	4.96	-7	4.78	10.4	2.3	3.9	0.9	5.9	1.7	2.9
2008	PHI	MLB	4	0	0	13	13	70.7	66	31	49	10	42%	.268	7	1.37	4.20	3	4.61	8.3	3.3	5.5	1.2	8.9	1.5	1.2

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats