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Josh Bard
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 30
6' 3"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Padres Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Josh Bard 65 410 .286 49 6 44 2 .364 .410 25.0
1   2008 Total 65 410 .286 49 6 44 2 .364 .410 25.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CLE MJ 95 6 4 0 1 9 9 11 0 0 -0.9 .193 .266 .277 -.345 .198 .280 .272 .201 -3.9 25-C 1 0.4
2006 SDN MJ 263 28 19 0 9 40 27 39 1 0 -0.8 .338 .406 .537 .364 .351 .420 .550 .328 29.7 55-C 0 4.2
2006 BOS MJ 21 2 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 -0.2 .278 .381 .333 -.063 .278 .381 .333 .262 0.4 0.1
2007 SDN MJ 443 42 27 2 5 51 50 58 0 1 -3.7 .285 .364 .404 .065 .298 .380 .425 .283 22.5 102-C -13 3.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 6:05 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 498 77 29 2 12 61 59 63 3 2 -1.9 .318 .399 .477 .186 .327 .409 .509 .311 49.4 117-C -9 6.0
75o 468 64 26 2 9 54 53 61 3 2 -1.7 .302 .382 .444 .101 .311 .391 .475 .296 36.6 111-C -9 4.9
60o 448 56 24 1 8 50 49 59 3 2 -1.6 .292 .371 .423 .045 .301 .379 .452 .286 28.9 106-C -9 4.2
50o 429 49 23 1 7 47 46 58 3 2 -1.5 .283 .360 .404 -.006 .292 .369 .431 .276 22.4 102-C -8 3.6
40o 412 44 21 1 6 44 43 56 3 2 -1.4 .275 .351 .387 -.050 .283 .359 .413 .268 17.0 98-C -8 3.1
25o 392 38 20 1 5 40 39 54 3 1 -1.3 .266 .340 .367 -.101 .274 .348 .392 .258 11.2 94-C -8 2.6
10o 321 22 14 0 1 28 29 47 2 1 -1.0 .235 .304 .303 -.271 .242 .312 .323 .222 -4.2 78-C -7 1.0
Weighted Mean 443 53 24 1 7 48 48 59 3 2 -1.4 .286 .364 .410 .012 .295 .372 .438 .278 26.9 105-C -8 3.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

7%

32%

35%

16%

1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 30) 443 53 24 1 7 48 48 59 3 2 -1.4 .286 .364 .410 .012 .295 .372 .438 .278 26.9 105-C -8 3.9
2009 (age 31) 427 50 23 1 7 46 45 56 3 1 -1.3 .284 .361 .411 .005 .288 .363 .431 .277 20.4 101-C -9 3.1
2010 (age 32) 391 43 20 1 7 43 42 54 2 1 -1.0 .280 .359 .405 -.008 .284 .362 .425 .274 15.0 94-C -9 2.4
2011 (age 33) 422 47 22 1 6 45 45 57 3 2 -0.9 .281 .357 .399 -.019 .284 .360 .419 .273 13.2 100-C -11 2.1
2012 (age 34) 382 40 19 1 6 39 40 51 3 1 -0.8 .278 .355 .391 -.035 .282 .358 .410 .270 10.3 92-C -11 1.7
2013 (age 35) 400 41 19 1 6 40 44 57 4 1 -0.7 .267 .350 .376 -.073 .271 .352 .394 .264 6.8 95-C -12 1.3
2014 (age 36) 337 34 16 1 5 32 39 44 2 1 -0.5 .275 .361 .391 -.027 .279 .364 .410 .273 6.8 81-C -10 1.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .300 .367 .435
vs RHP .281 .362 .394
Split +.018 +.005 +.041
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.1 1.8 3.9 $8,200,000 18.5 26.2
2009 1.8 1.3 3.1 $6,325,000 12.1 15.6
2010 1.4 1.0 2.4 $4,725,000 8.3 11.1
2011 1.2 0.9 2.1 $4,150,000 6.3 8.8
2012 1.0 0.7 1.7 $3,275,000 4.3 6.7
2013 0.7 0.6 1.3 $2,150,000 1.4 3.9
2014 0.7 0.6 1.3 $2,575,000 2.6 2.9
Peak 14.5 $23,250,000 50.9 72.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .296 .276 .258 .278
2009 .299 .273 .253 .277
2010 .301 .276 .243 .274
2011 .295 .279 .247 .273
2012 .292 .268 .248 .270
2013 .300 .258 .241 .264
2014 .292 .279 .244 .273


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 16% 0% 7%
2009 26% 11% 6%
2010 42% 22% 6%
2011 44% 26% 4%
2012 58% 38% 3%
2013 63% 45% 2%
2014 72% 59% 3%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

38

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Chad Kreuter 1992 40 11 Dwight Lowry 2003 33
2 Jim Sundberg 1979 36 12 Bill Fahey 1971 33
3 Mitch Meluskey 1981 36 13 Brian Downing 1982 33
4 Michael Barrett 1970 36 14 Lyle Overbay 1960 33
5 Ron Hassey 1973 35 15 Hal Morris 2007 32
6 Earl Battey 1992 35 16 Fran Healy 1975 32
7 Red Wilson 1975 34 17 Tony Pena 1969 32
8 Jason Varitek 1975 34 18 Bruce Bochte 2000 31
9 David Segui 1957 34 19 Joe Torre 1979 30
10 Joe Azcue 1998 33 20 John Stearns 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

After Bard took to being knuckleballer Tim Wakefield`s personal catcher like a duck takes to being repeatedly poked with a fork, the Red Sox panicked and flipped him to San Diego for his predecessor, Doug Mirabelli. They never could have anticipated he`d hit like he did in San Diego, just as there`s no reason for the Padres to expect him to do it again. Still, Bard`s a true switch-hitter, solid against both righties and lefties, and PECOTA expects him to maintain his new-found plate discipline, so he`ll still be one of the better players at his position. Although properly considered the better-throwing alternative to Mike Piazza on last year`s Pads, Bard didn`t surpass him by much. Throwing out only 18 percent of opposing baserunners isn`t very special, but, in Bard`s defense, he`s done better before; perhaps Pads pitchers need to work on holding runners as much as their catchers need to work on throwing.

2006

Appropriately enough, nobody is claiming to be the author of this Bard`s work. A backup catcher straight out of central casting, Bard has a better defensive rep than Victor Martinez, but hasn`t shown any ability to hit from either side of the plate. His value in a trade as a plausible starting catcher for somebody else has just about been used up.

2005

Muscled out of the way by an emergent Victor Martinez, Bard spent the year in Buffalo as a replacement-level catcher. With a sunny personality, strong defensive reputation, and .310 major league OBP, Bard could be a backup forever.

2003

I don’t know about you, but I’m going to name my first kid “Josh” and teach him to be a backup catcher like Josh Paul and Josh Bard. Key drills will include smiling and “aw, shucks” interviews, playing baseball like it was meant to be played, calling a good game, being white, and hiring a good agent. I’ll be retiring to Phoenix in about twenty years. So long, suckers!

Josh Bard’s game-winning heroics during his call-up may lead the Indians to do something really stupid, like trade Victor Martinez or otherwise hold up Victor’s development. In the short term, though, Bard will be the Indians’ starting catcher next year unless he’s awful in spring training, while Martinez starts throwing out baserunners.

2002

Part of the booty acquired from the Rockies for Jacob Cruz, Bard is primarily noted as a defensive catcher with a good arm. He has hit for a reasonable average and has shown some doubles power while maintaining decent strikeout-to-walk ratios. Unlike most of the prospects we highlight, Bard isn't a high-upside guy. As a switch-hitter who can throw, though, he's going to make the majors, and he is going to be around for a while.


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