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Paul Bako
Cincinnati Reds [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 36
6' 2"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Reds Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Paul Bako 15 95 .218 6 0 7 0 .293 .286 -2.4
1   2008 Total 15 95 .218 6 0 7 0 .293 .286 -2.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LAN MJ 47 1 2 0 0 4 7 12 0 0 -0.6 .250 .362 .300 -.095 .250 .362 .300 .245 0.6 12-C 0 0.5
2006 WIC 2A 12 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0.1 .167 .167 .167 -.726 .167 .167 .167 .000 -2.2 0.0
2006 KCA MJ 167 7 3 0 0 10 11 46 0 0 -1.6 .209 .261 .229 -.488 .205 .267 .225 .170 -13.3 45-C 0 0.1
2007 BAL MJ 174 13 3 1 1 8 15 50 0 1 -0.3 .205 .277 .256 -.375 .213 .293 .265 .198 -8.7 47-C -2 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 6:02 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 212 32 10 1 3 21 25 51 0 1 -1.0 .269 .358 .382 -.049 .266 .354 .376 .256 5.3 53-C -4 1.5
75o 183 19 6 1 2 16 18 46 0 0 -0.7 .235 .314 .317 -.235 .231 .311 .312 .217 -3.2 47-C -3 0.7
60o 174 16 5 1 1 15 17 45 0 0 -0.7 .225 .302 .299 -.286 .222 .299 .294 .205 -5.1 45-C -2 0.5
50o 159 12 4 1 1 13 14 42 0 0 -0.6 .210 .283 .272 -.365 .208 .280 .268 .185 -7.5 41-C -2 0.2
40o 140 8 3 0 1 11 11 38 0 0 -0.5 .194 .262 .242 -.451 .192 .259 .238 .161 -9.4 37-C -1 0.0
25o 55 1 0 0 0 3 3 17 0 0 -0.1 .150 .201 .159 -.696 .148 .199 .157 .048 -6.7 18-C 0 0.0
10o 32 1 0 0 0 2 2 10 0 0 -0.1 .151 .203 .162 -.688 .149 .201 .159 .019 -3.9 13-C 0 0.0
Weighted Mean 120 8 3 0 1 9 11 31 0 0 -0.5 .218 .293 .286 -.323 .215 .290 .282 .196 -3.0 33-C -1 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

41%

47%

46%

61%

1.14

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 36) 120 8 3 0 1 9 11 31 0 0 -0.5 .218 .293 .286 -.323 .215 .290 .282 .196 -3.0 33-C -1 0.9
2009 (age 37) 127 10 4 1 1 9 12 32 0 1 -0.3 .232 .308 .305 -.262 .225 .300 .295 .209 -1.7 34-C -3 0.2
2010 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .186 .256 .227
vs RHP .227 .310 .313
Split -.041 -.054 -.086
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.3 1.1 0.9 $925,000 -5.0 0.8
2009 0.0 0.3 0.2 $475,000 -3.6 0.1
2010 0.0 0.2 0.1 $425,000 -2.9 0.0
2011 0.0 0.1 0.0 $400,000 -1.6 0.0
2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 -0.7 0.0
2013 0.0 0.1 0.0 $425,000 0.0 0.0
2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 $450,000 -0.8 0.0
Peak 1.1 $625,000 0.0 0.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .217 .185 .048 .196
2009 .244 .212 .149 .209
2010
-- out of baseball --
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 61% 0% 41%
2009 81% 54% 29%
2010 86% 67% 23%
2011 98% 80% 16%
2012 100% 90% 5%
2013 100% 96% 5%
2014 100% 96% 4%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

7

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Larry Haney 1992 40 11 Ray Murray 2003 33
2 Brent Mayne 1979 36 12 Tony Pena 1971 33
3 Joe Ginsberg 1981 36 13 Brad Ausmus 1982 33
4 Chad Kreuter 1970 36 14 Sal Butera 1960 33
5 Pat Borders 1973 35 15 Chris Cannizzaro 2007 32
6 Keith Osik 1992 35 16 J.C. Martin 1975 32
7 Ron Tingley 1975 34 17 Jeff Newman 1969 32
8 John Wathan 1975 34 18 Jamie Quirk 2000 31
9 Tim Laker 1957 34 19 Dan Wilson 1979 30
10 Mike Difelice 1998 33 20 Danny Sheaffer 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

A message to all you parents out there: if your son dreams of one day joining the International Brotherhood of Backup Catchers--hey, it`s easier to join than the Priory of Sion--get him working on his left-handed swing. Bako has hit under .230 in five of the last seven years, he`s hit one homer in the last four, yet he keeps finding teams interested in a left-handed stick to complement their right-handed starter. The latest is the Orioles, who are paying him $900,000 to impersonate a minimum-wage backup.

2006

A good-field/no-hit catcher whose defensive abilities are somewhat overstated, Bako tore his ACL in a rundown in June, shelving him for the season. The injury wasn`t a total loss, as it forced the team to take a long look at Navarro, with happy results. Despite being 34 and coming off of knee surgery, the Royals have signed him to provide the veteran gravitas John Buck lacks. We imagine something like Edwin Newman in a mask.

2005

Gabor is coasting on his defensive reputation, but over the course of his career, he's caught just under 31% of attempted basestealers, a figure no better than pedestrian. Reputedly he works well with pitchers and helps old ladies cross the street and all that, but there's nothing separating him from 10 or 15 catchers in the International League. None of this is meant to be an endorsement of Henry Blanco, who was brought in to be Bako's replacement, but at least Blanco does his job as advertised.

2003

Bako is what he is: an adequate backup who bats lefty for spice. Acquired by the Cubs in their ingenious plot to acquire every solid backup catcher, except that they’re already running out of roster room to bring the scheme to fruition. If they don’t add anybody else, he should be Damian Miller’s caddy.

2002

“Bits” is your basic good backup to a slugging right-handed-hitting catcher with a few defensive limitations. In other words, he's a great guy to have when Javy Lopez is your regular starter. Lopez's return to Atlanta should guarantee another year of employment for Bako, catching Greg Maddux every fifth game.

2001

The season-ending injury to Eddie Perez left the Braves with only Fernando Lunar behind Javy Lopez, so claiming Paul Bako off waivers was a good idea. Bako, a left-handed, low-power, average defensive backstop, is a near-perfect complement to Lopez. He'll be around for a while and have a lot of years like 1998.

2000

A curious addition to the Brad Ausmus trade, Bako’s value was no mystery after Mitch Meluskey went out for the season in late April. A .260 hitter who can work the count a little and throw out 35% of attempted base-stealers can make a useful player: just look at Tony Eusebio. When you can do that and bat left-handed like Bako, you can stay in the majors for 10 years. Now that Eusebio has been re-signed, Bako may be the odd man out in Houston.

1999

He's been touted as one of the bright spots to the season, but he's no long-term answer. His dexterity behind the plate doesn't compensate for a weak stick, and he turns 27 in June. If he's able to recapture the ability to draw walks he showed in 1994-95, he could stick in a platoon role, and left-handed hitters are valuable behind the plate. But Rob Fick, also a lefty, has grabbed on to his collar and is ready to pull.

1998

Bako’s a good defensive catcher who had shown improvement in his hitting. He’s qualified to be a major league backup right now, and could play about even with Joe Oliver as Eddie Taubensee’s backup. Traded to Detroit, where the competition isn’t as stiff. I think he’ll be above average for the position in 1998.

1997

Naturally, the second Bako started hitting, his defensive reputation started to slip. A good hitter who will get better, and I think he’s fine behind the plate. The Reds probably have more depth at catcher and shortstop than any other organization. They’ve also got the most Marge Schott. Bako will start the year in Indianapolis and likely will stay there until September.


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