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Abe Alvarez
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 25
6' 2"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 PAW 3A 11 6 0 26 26 144.7 143 31 109 17 40% .290 2 1.20 4.85 4.78 5.72 9.2 2.5 4.9 1.3 -1.8 2.2
2005 BOS MJ 0 0 0 2 0 2.3 6 0 1 1 33% .455 -63 2.57 15.65 22.06 19.29 23.1 0.0 3.9 3.9 -2.4 0.0 -0.1
2006 PAW 3A 6 9 0 22 21 118.1 136 40 71 22 40% .300 -25 1.49 5.64 8.94 8.22 11.4 3.8 3.7 2.6 -32.5 -1.3
2006 BOS MJ 0 0 0 1 0 3.0 5 2 2 2 18% .333 -64 2.33 12.00 19.29 15.00 15.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 -1.8 0.0 -0.1
2007 PAW 3A 5 8 0 25 16 100.0 102 45 69 9 41% .307 -12 1.47 4.77 5.83 5.97 10.0 4.5 4.5 1.2 -3.9 1.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:04 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 5 5 0 28 12 86.0 92 38 48 9 40% .292 -5 1.51 4.48 4.57 4.37 9.0 3.6 4.6 0.9 12.3 1.7 2.0
75o 4 5 0 27 11 80.3 92 37 44 11 41% .303 -10 1.61 5.45 5.28 5.28 9.7 3.8 4.5 1.2 2.5 0.7 1.0
60o 3 5 0 27 11 74.0 92 36 40 13 41% .313 -15 1.73 6.53 6.08 6.28 10.5 4.0 4.5 1.5 -6.9 -0.3 0.1
50o 3 5 0 27 10 72.3 92 36 39 13 41% .317 -17 1.76 6.88 6.34 6.61 10.8 4.1 4.4 1.6 -9.6 -0.5 -0.2
40o 3 5 0 26 10 67.7 91 35 36 14 41% .325 -22 1.86 7.79 6.99 7.44 11.4 4.2 4.4 1.9 -16.0 -1.2 -0.9
25o 2 5 0 25 9 60.7 88 33 31 15 42% .337 -28 2.00 9.21 7.98 8.76 12.3 4.5 4.3 2.2 -24.2 -2.0 -1.7
10o 1 4 0 19 5 42.7 53 21 23 7 43% .314 -27 1.73 13.19 6.09 13.99 10.6 4.0 4.5 1.5 -44.8 -3.9 -3.7
Weighted Mean 3 5 0 27 9 68.0 85 33 37 12 41% .314 -16 1.74 6.67 6.14 6.42 10.6 4.0 4.4 1.5 -7.3 -0.4 0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

52%

27%

29%

1.29

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 25) 3 5 0 27 9 68.0 85 33 37 12 41% .314 -16 1.74 6.67 6.14 6.42 10.6 4.0 4.4 1.5 -7.3 -0.4 0.1
2009 (age 26) 2 3 0 21 6 50.0 61 23 29 8 41% .317 -14 1.68 6.33 5.74 6.13 10.4 3.7 4.8 1.3 -3.6 -0.1 0.2
2010 (age 27) 3 4 0 25 7 60.0 71 23 32 8 36% .306 -12 1.56 5.71 5.16 5.53 10.0 3.2 4.3 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.5
2011 (age 28) 2 3 0 22 5 48.0 57 22 27 6 40% .312 -13 1.64 5.76 5.46 5.57 10.1 3.7 4.6 1.2 -0.2 0.2 0.4
2012 (age 29) 2 3 0 22 5 47.7 55 21 28 6 40% .304 -11 1.58 5.55 5.22 5.37 9.8 3.6 4.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.4
2013 (age 30) 3 3 0 26 4 48.3 53 21 28 6 41% .294 -11 1.53 5.21 4.94 5.06 9.3 3.6 4.8 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.4
2014 (age 31) 1 1 0 7 1 13.0 16 5 8 2 40% .310 -12 1.59 5.84 5.38 5.65 10.2 3.5 5.0 1.3 -0.3 0.0 0.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .266 .360 .424
vs RHB .290 .382 .497
Split -.023 -.022 -.072
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.1 $400,000 -6.8 1.3
2009 0.2 $450,000 -3.3 1.0
2010 0.5 $675,000 0.2 3.0
2011 0.4 $600,000 0.0 3.2
2012 0.4 $750,000 0.7 1.3
2013 0.4 $1,000,000 1.6 1.7
2014 0.2 $475,000 -0.2 1.5
Peak 2.1 $1,200,000 2.4 11.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.28 6.61 8.76 6.42
2009 4.97 6.29 7.87 6.13
2010 4.58 5.40 8.36 5.53
2011 4.79 6.33 8.01 5.57
2012 4.70 5.43 6.57 5.37
2013 4.30 5.54 6.36 5.06
2014 4.34 5.58 8.45 5.65


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 29% 0% 33%
2009 50% 19% 29%
2010 58% 36% 38%
2011 69% 42% 26%
2012 70% 53% 30%
2013 78% 65% 25%
2014 84% 65% 21%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

65

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Mike Matthews 1999 67 11 Neal Musser 2006 52
2 Dan Meyer 2007 62 12 Kirt Ojala 1994 52
3 Ryan Snare 2004 59 13 Mario Ramos 2003 51
4 Chris Narveson 2007 57 14 Travis Miller 1998 50
5 Chris George 2005 57 15 Chet Nichols 1956 50
6 Kevin Morton 1994 55 16 Jake Woods 2007 49
7 Brent Billingsley 2001 55 17 Danny Borrell 2004 49
8 Ben Vanryn 1997 54 18 Allen Watson 1996 49
9 Andrew Lorraine 1998 53 19 Larry Thomas 1995 48
10 Mike Milchin 1993 52 20 Mike Nannini 2006 47

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The lanky lefty with the skewed hat (which compensates for the legal blindness in his left eye by adjusting the light), Alvarez climbed the ladder quickly in his first two years out of Long Beach State. Last year`s fast start (2.18 ERA, 30 hits in 41 1/3 innings) was interrupted a brief stint in Boston in late May. Upon returning to Triple-A, he was beaten like a rented mule (7.51 ERA and 2.11 HR/9) before a season-ending ankle fracture. With stuff as fringy as a Dolly Parton outfit, he`s in danger of becoming organizational fodder.

2006

A 2nd-round pick in 2003, Alvarez has been fast-tracked through the system due to his maturity and good control of all his pitches. He`s a classic finesse lefty, who with a fastball topping out at 85-88 MPH requires deception and command of multiple pitches. The organization loves his approach, and he has been rewarded with brief call-ups each of the past two seasons. The Red Sox believe Alvarez is still growing into his body, and will give him every opportunity to remain a starter while he does. But a move to the bullpen is possible, depending on the team`s needs.

2005

If you haven't heard of Alvarez before, you will, but not necessarily because he's a decent pitching prospect in the upper part of the Boston system. Rare as that is, Alvarez will gain attention if he continues to pitch well because he's legally blind in one eye. It hasn't affected his performance yet, so consider it a non-issue. As a pitcher, Alvarez is another one of a long line of soft-tossing lefties the Sox are stockpiling. His fastball maxes out in the 85-88 range, but he mixes in a variety of soft stuff, particularly a solid curveball. He had a good year in Portland and made an injury-replacement start against Baltimore, confirming only that he's not quite ready for the majors just yet. Look for him to compete for the fifth-starter role soon if he keeps it up.


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