Matt Wieters

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Orioles Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 Matt Wieters 70 155 .281 19 4 21 0 .355 .440 6.5

1 2009 Total 70 155 .281 19 4 21 0 .355 .440 6.5

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:55 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	654	128	38	2	39	119	91	101	4	2	-1.1	.344	.437	.635	.491	.342	.438	.644	.357	99.1	152-C -2	11.6
75^o	631	111	35	2	34	106	81	99	4	2	-1.0	.327	.416	.589	.380	.325	.417	.597	.339	79.4	147-C -3	9.8
60^o	615	100	32	2	30	98	75	97	4	2	-1.0	.316	.401	.557	.303	.313	.402	.565	.326	66.4	144-C -3	8.6
50^o	604	93	31	2	28	92	71	96	4	2	-1.0	.308	.391	.537	.254	.305	.392	.544	.318	58.3	141-C -3	7.9
40^o	597	89	30	2	27	89	68	95	4	2	-0.9	.303	.385	.523	.221	.300	.386	.531	.312	53.1	140-C -3	7.4
25^o	581	80	28	2	24	81	62	93	4	1	-0.9	.292	.370	.494	.148	.289	.371	.501	.299	41.8	136-C -4	6.2
10^o	563	71	25	2	20	73	56	91	4	1	-0.9	.280	.355	.463	.072	.278	.356	.469	.286	30.5	132-C -4	5.1
Weighted Mean	649	106	33	2	31	100	77	102	4	2	-1.0	.311	.395	.546	.283	.309	.396	.553	.320	59.9	151-C -3	7.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
15%	41%	23%	3%	1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 23)	649	106	33	2	31	100	77	102	4	2	-1.0	.311	.395	.546	.283	.309	.396	.553	.320	59.9	151-C -3	7.9
2010 (age 24)	619	99	31	2	29	95	78	96	4	2	-0.8	.310	.399	.542	.295	.312	.405	.556	.320	59.0	145-C -4	7.3
2011 (age 25)	655	110	34	2	31	106	85	98	4	2	-0.7	.313	.404	.548	.315	.315	.410	.563	.324	65.1	153-C -4	8.2
2012 (age 26)	686	117	33	2	34	106	90	106	5	2	-0.6	.308	.401	.545	.300	.310	.407	.559	.322	64.2	160-C -3	8.2
2013 (age 27)	664	112	33	2	32	106	87	100	3	2	-0.5	.312	.404	.550	.315	.313	.410	.564	.324	61.4	155-C -2	7.8
2014 (age 28)	646	110	31	2	31	102	91	93	4	1	-0.3	.317	.411	.553	.335	.318	.418	.567	.328	62.9	151-C -3	7.8
2015 (age 29)	600	97	30	2	29	96	83	88	3	1	-0.2	.313	.407	.549	.320	.314	.413	.564	.325	50.5	140-C -4	6.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.320	.393	.574
vs RHP	.307	.397	.515
Split	+.013	-.004	+.059
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	55.4	-3.0	7.9	$24,500,000	67.1	94.5
2010	52.7	-4.0	7.3	$24,700,000	64.0	95.1
2011	58.7	-4.0	8.2	$31,400,000	72.5	110.1
2012	59.5	-3.0	8.2	$33,700,000	72.0	108.2
2013	58.9	-2.0	7.8	$34,575,000	69.5	106.4
2014	60.3	-3.0	7.8	$38,000,000	70.6	109.5
2015	54.2	-4.0	6.2	$29,675,000	55.3	84.6
Peak			47.3	$149,875,000	415.6	623.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.339	.318	.299	.320
2010	.335	.320	.295	.320
2011	.340	.320	.291	.324
2012	.345	.319	.292	.322
2013	.341	.327	.297	.324
2014	.340	.325	.301	.328
2015	.334	.319	.291	.325

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	3%	0%	15%
2010	8%	0%	11%
2011	3%	0%	20%
2012	8%	0%	22%
2013	14%	2%	16%
2014	12%	3%	18%
2015	28%	2%	16%

0

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Mark Teixeira	2003	35		11	Jeff Burroughs	1974	22
2	J.D. Drew	1999	30		12	Darryl Strawberry	1985	21
3	Alex Gordon	2007	30		13	Michael Cuddyer	2002	21
4	Ben Grieve	1999	30		14	Brad Komminsk	1984	21
5	Joe Mauer	2006	29		15	Ken Griffey	1993	19
6	Travis Lee	1998	27		16	Bob Horner	1980	19
7	Austin Kearns	2003	27		17	Eddie Murray	1979	18
8	Ryan Zimmerman	2007	27		18	Prince Fielder	2007	17
9	Joe Borchard	2002	24		19	Tom Brunansky	1983	16
10	Evan Longoria	2008	22		20	Albert Pujols	2003	16

Player Comments

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2008

Wieters was regarded as the best position player in last year's draft and possibly the best college catcher in recent memory, combining good defense, a high average, and good power. The Orioles got him with the fifth overall pick because the top four teams were scared away by his bonus demands and his agent, Scott Boras. Indeed, the O's wound up giving Wieters a record signing bonus, inking him too late to play last season, but he did have a solid debut in Hawaii over the winter.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008	FRD	A+	280	48	8	0	15	40	44	47	1	2	-1.3	.345	.448	.576	.215	.301	.396	.513	.310	28.2	47-C 7	3.7
2008	BOW	AA	250	41	14	2	12	51	38	29	1	0	0.5	.365	.460	.625	.475	.349	.436	.627	.351	43.1	44-C 2	4.1

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats