Mark Wagner

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:05 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	454	48	29	1	11	55	40	87	1	0	-1.1	.246	.320	.400	-.115	.239	.314	.404	.252	5.6	107-C 2	2.8
75^o	416	36	24	1	8	46	34	83	1	0	-0.9	.222	.292	.355	-.238	.215	.287	.359	.227	-6.7	99-C 1	1.3
60^o	390	29	21	1	7	40	30	80	1	0	-0.8	.206	.274	.327	-.316	.200	.269	.330	.209	-13.3	93-C 0	0.5
50^o	379	26	20	1	6	38	29	79	1	0	-0.8	.200	.267	.316	-.346	.195	.263	.319	.202	-15.6	91-C 0	0.2
40^o	367	24	19	0	6	36	27	77	0	0	-0.7	.194	.259	.304	-.378	.188	.255	.307	.194	-17.8	88-C -1	0.0
25^o	352	21	17	0	5	33	26	76	0	0	-0.7	.187	.251	.291	-.415	.181	.247	.294	.185	-20.1	85-C -1	-0.5
10^o	314	15	14	0	4	26	21	70	0	0	-0.6	.169	.230	.259	-.502	.165	.227	.262	.159	-24.3	76-C -2	-1.2
Weighted Mean	381	28	21	1	7	40	30	78	1	0	-0.8	.206	.274	.327	-.278	.201	.270	.330	.209	-12.5	91-C 0	0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
23%	38%	42%	14%	1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	381	28	21	1	7	40	30	78	1	0	-0.8	.206	.274	.327	-.278	.201	.270	.330	.209	-12.5	91-C 0	0.5
2010 (age 26)	367	28	19	1	8	40	30	75	1	0	-0.5	.207	.278	.341	-.277	.203	.277	.348	.215	-8.0	88-C 0	0.5
2011 (age 27)	270	18	13	0	6	27	24	56	0	0	-0.3	.196	.275	.327	-.307	.192	.274	.334	.210	-6.8	66-C -2	0.2
2012 (age 28)	317	23	17	0	7	34	26	63	0	0	-0.3	.211	.279	.345	-.267	.207	.278	.352	.218	-4.9	77-C -1	0.4
2013 (age 29)	302	22	15	0	7	32	26	58	0	0	-0.2	.210	.287	.347	-.250	.207	.286	.354	.222	-3.4	74-C -1	0.4
2014 (age 30)	394	32	20	1	9	43	36	83	1	0	-0.2	.203	.282	.346	-.265	.200	.281	.353	.219	-4.1	94-C 0	0.4
2015 (age 31)	329	24	15	0	8	35	29	65	0	0	-0.2	.198	.275	.335	-.296	.195	.274	.342	.212	-4.4	80-C 2	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.222	.292	.353
vs RHP	.202	.267	.315
Split	+.020	+.025	+.037
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-10.7	0.0	0.5	$400,000	-9.9	1.6
2010	-8.3	0.0	0.5	$400,000	-6.6	0.7
2011	-7.3	-2.0	0.2	$400,000	-6.4	1.6
2012	-6.4	-1.0	0.4	$550,000	-3.9	2.4
2013	-4.9	-1.0	0.4	$925,000	-2.0	3.2
2014	-7.4	0.0	0.4	$825,000	-3.1	1.6
2015	-8.3	2.0	0.4	$925,000	-2.4	2.9
Peak			2.4	$1,950,000	0.0	11.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.227	.202	.185	.209
2010	.240	.217	.186	.215
2011	.232	.208	.187	.210
2012	.248	.213	.178	.218
2013	.259	.219	.186	.222
2014	.254	.221	.190	.219
2015	.245	.206	.175	.212

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	14%	0%	23%
2010	36%	18%	28%
2011	64%	33%	26%
2012	58%	42%	25%
2013	63%	47%	29%
2014	65%	53%	24%
2015	69%	58%	19%

62

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Chris Hoiles	1990	51		11	Douglas Simunic	1981	46
2	Wyatt Toregas	2007	51		12	B.J. Waszgis	1995	45
3	Nick Hundley	2008	51		13	Pat Cline	1999	45
4	Tom Prince	1989	48		14	Jim Campanis	1992	45
5	Adan Millan	1997	47		15	John Flaherty	1992	44
6	Luke Montz	2008	47		16	Joe Depastino	1998	44
7	Jim Foster	1996	47		17	Charlie O'Brien	1985	43
8	Bobby Wilson	2008	47		18	Bob Henley	1998	43
9	Mandy Romero	1992	46		19	Clint Sammons	2008	42
10	Lloyd McClendon	1984	46		20	Willie Morales	1997	42

Player Comments

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2008

When a catcher posts a 939 OPS, you take notice, but Wagner's 2007 performance comes with so many caveats that it's hard to take it seriously. He was old for his league, he didn't actually hit for impressive power given his environment, and he didn't warrant a promotion. In other words, Wagner looks like an organizational player.

2007

A ninth-round pick in 2005, Wagner broke out in his first full year as a pro at Greenville, both at the plate--showing on-base skills and gap power--and behind it, where he threw out 32 percent of baserunners. That earned him Sally League All-Star honors and a promotion to Wilmington. Though he didn`t hit there, he`s bound for a return engagement to start the season, and could reach Double-A by midsummer. He and Kotteras give the Red Sox two more catching prospects than most teams have.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	GRN	A	407	49	32	1	7	45	42	52	1	3	-0.4	.301	.386	.456	-.272	.220	.282	.338	.215	-17.6	64-C -7	-1.5
2006	WIL	A+	74	8	4	0	1	5	7	9	0	0	-2.0	.169	.243	.277	-.584	.149	.203	.239	.144	-10.1	13-C -4	-1.1
2007	LNC	A+	431	71	35	1	14	82	55	46	0	1	-1.3	.318	.406	.533	-.237	.213	.290	.356	.225	-13.6	81-C -3	0.0
2008	PME	AA	393	44	19	0	10	48	38	78	0	0	0.7	.219	.304	.363	-.322	.195	.270	.327	.210	-22.5	82-C 4	0.0

Historical Stats